Premier League
Fulham vs 
Manchester United Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 50.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.2% for over 7.5 to 22.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.8%. Between the two sides, Fulham are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 52.3%, with a level count at 10.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 8.5 corners | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| 9.5 corners | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| 10.5 corners | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 31.1% | 68.9% |
| 12.5 corners | 22.3% | 77.7% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
72.9%
58.3%
43.8%
63.3%
47.2%
32.7%
Corner handicap
| Fulham line | Fulham | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| -0.5 | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| +0.5 | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| +1.5 | 71.5% | 28.5% |
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Fulham.
In-depth analysis
52.8%Over 9.5 corners58.3%Fulham over 4.5 corners47.2%Manchester United over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Fulham over 4.5 corners sits at 58.3% and Manchester United at 47.2%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Fulham vs Manchester United?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 52.8% for Fulham vs Manchester United.
Which team will win the corner count in Fulham vs Manchester United?
The model rates Fulham to win the corner count at 52.3%, with a level count at 10.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,756 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 16 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
