League TwoRotherham vs Crewe Alexandra Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 13.4% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.3% for over 2.5 and 71.7% for at least two goals. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% |
| 0-0 | 8.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% |
| 0-1 | 8.7% |
| 2-0 | 7.8% |
| 1-2 | 7.1% |
| 0-2 | 5.2% |
Score probability grid
| Rotherham \ Crewe Alexandra | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Rotherham goals, columns = Crewe Alexandra. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.4%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
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4
5+
In-depth analysis
50.9%Both Teams to Score45.3%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 45.3% for three or more goals and 71.7% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Rotherham favoured at 41.8%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Rotherham vs Crewe Alexandra?
The model's most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Crewe Alexandra is 1-1 at 13.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More League Two, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
