Süper Lig
Fenerbahce vs 
Besiktas Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 57.9% and it missed (23 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 69.4% and it landed (8 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 57.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 69.5% for over 22.5 to 34.6% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.0%. On the shot count, Fenerbahce are the model’s pick to have more shots at 65.0%, with a level count at 5.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 34.6% | 65.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
78.5%
64.1%
48.5%
56.1%
38.4%
23.9%
Shot handicap
| Fenerbahce line | Fenerbahce | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| -2.5 | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| -0.5 | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| +0.5 | 70.4% | 29.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 69.4% | 30.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 46.1% | 53.9% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Fenerbahce.
In-depth analysis
57.9%Over 24.5 shots64.1%Fenerbahce over 12.5 shots38.4%Besiktas over 12.5 shots69.4%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Fenerbahce over 12.5 shots sits at 64.1% and Besiktas at 38.4%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Fenerbahce vs Besiktas?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 57.9% for Fenerbahce vs Besiktas.
Which team will have more shots in Fenerbahce vs Besiktas?
Before kickoff, the model rated Fenerbahce to take more shots at 65.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.