Alanyaspor vs Goztep prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Alanyaspor vs Goztep: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Süper Lig
Alanyaspor

LDWLW

Sat, 12 Sep 202618:00UK
Goztep

LDLLL

Model’s top convictions

73%

Over 1.5 goals

71%

Alanyaspor or draw

57%

Draw or Goztep

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.010 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AlanyasporWin probability
43.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals73.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.37
Alanyaspor or draw70.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.41
Draw or Goztep56.9%Good chancePays @ 1.76

Model read

▾

"Alanyaspor or Goztep? We publish probabilities, not certainties." A measured edge to Alanyaspor: 43% is the model's line for this Süper Lig meeting on 12 September 2026. The market broadly agrees, pricing Alanyaspor at 44%. Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. The recent series reads 3 wins for Alanyaspor, 2 draws and 0 for Goztep over 5 games, 2.0 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Alanyaspor W3 D1 L2, Goztep W1 D1 L4. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.010 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.3%@ 2.11
Over 9.5 corners44.4%@ 2.25
Over 10.5 corners34.5%@ 2.90
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners55.1%@ 1.81
Under 2.5 goals52.7%@ 1.90
Both teams to score52.2%@ 1.92
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.64
1-0 correct score10.4%@ 9.64
2-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.22

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Alanyaspor

43.2%-1.1%

Draw

27.5%+1.0%

Goztep

29.4%+0.1%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.010 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.573.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.547.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes52.2%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.555.1%

Good chance

Over 9.544.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.534.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.525.9%

Low chance

Most cornersAlanyaspor54.6%Goztep34.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.567.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.555.7%

Good chance

Over 26.543.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.532.6%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Alanyaspor10.0 taken14.3 faced
Goztep17.5 taken17.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.2%2.547.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.2%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.010 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

AlanyasporLDWLW
GoztepLDLLL

Last 5 meetings: Alanyaspor 3 · 2 draws · Goztep 0 · 2.0 goals/game.

2026-03-14Goztep 2-2 Alanyaspor
2025-10-19Alanyaspor 1-0 Goztep
2025-02-02Goztep 0-1 Alanyaspor
2024-08-23Alanyaspor 1-1 Goztep
2022-03-19Goztep 0-2 Alanyaspor

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AlanyasporGoztep
League position#7 of 18#17 of 18
Record W-D-L2-1-10-1-3
Current streakW1L3
Record, home vs away1-0-00-1-1
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 2.92 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Alanyaspor win2.102.31
Draw3.403.64
Goztep win3.103.40
Over 2.5 goals1.952.11
Under 2.5 goals1.851.90

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Alanyaspor win2.32
Draw3.64
Goztep win3.41
Both teams to score1.92

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.37
Over 2.5 goals2.11
Over 3.5 goals3.90
Alanyaspor most2.32
Goztep most3.41

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.44
Over 8.5 corners1.75
Over 9.5 corners2.22
Over 10.5 corners2.97
Alanyaspor most1.83
Goztep most2.90

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.20
Over 3.5 cards1.50
Over 4.5 cards2.09
Over 5.5 cards3.25
Alanyaspor most2.86
Goztep most2.18

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.33
Over 7.5 SoT1.57
Over 8.5 SoT1.94
Over 9.5 SoT2.53
Alanyaspor most1.88
Goztep most2.89

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.48
Over 24.5 shots1.80
Over 26.5 shots2.28
Over 28.5 shots3.07
Alanyaspor most1.64
Goztep most2.99

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.15
Over 22.5 fouls1.30
Over 24.5 fouls1.56
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 67.5% Over 24.5 55.7% Over 26.5 43.8% Over 28.5 32.6%
Most: Alanyaspor 60.8% Most: Goztep 33.5%
Alanyaspor Over 13.2 51.8% Goztep Over 13.2 32.2%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 75.2% Over 7.5 63.7% Over 8.5 51.4% Over 9.5 39.6%
Most: Alanyaspor 53.3% Most: Goztep 34.6%
Alanyaspor Over 4.2 51.2% Goztep Over 4.2 37.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 83.3% Over 3.5 66.8% Over 4.5 47.9%
Most: Alanyaspor 35.0% Most: Goztep 45.9%
Alanyaspor Over 1.8 62.8% Goztep Over 1.8 69.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Alanyaspor clean sheet 32.1%
Goztep clean sheet 23.9%
Alanyaspor win to nil 23.7%
Goztep win to nil 15.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 43.2% draw 27.5% away 29.4%
double_chance
1X 70.6% 12 72.5% X2 56.8%
dnb
home 59.5% away 40.5%
btts
yes 52.2% no 47.8%
clean_sheet
home 32.2% away 24.0%
win_to_nil
home 23.8% away 15.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.1% home_by_2 13.1% home_by_3plus 8.0%
away_by_1 17.4% away_by_2 8.3% away_by_3plus 3.7%
correct_score
0-0 8.3% 0-1 8.1% 0-2 5.0%
0-3 1.9% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.4% 1-1 13.1% 1-2 7.1%
1-3 2.7% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.9% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.9% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.8% 3-1 4.3% 3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.4% 4-1 1.5% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.7% under_0.5 8.3% over_1.5 73.2%
under_1.5 26.8% over_2.5 47.3% under_2.5 52.7%
over_3.5 25.7% under_3.5 74.4% over_4.5 11.8%
under_4.5 88.2% over_5.5 4.7% under_5.5 95.4%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 76.1% under_0.5 24.0% over_1.5 41.8%
under_1.5 58.2% over_2.5 17.4% under_2.5 82.6%
team_away
over_0.5 67.8% under_0.5 32.2% over_1.5 31.4%
under_1.5 68.6% over_2.5 10.7% under_2.5 89.3%
most
home 43.2% draw 27.5% away 29.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.0% away_+2.5 92.0% home_-1.5 21.1%
away_+1.5 78.9% home_-0.5 43.2% away_+0.5 56.8%
home_+0.5 70.6% away_-0.5 29.4% home_+1.5 88.0%
away_-1.5 12.0% home_+2.5 96.3% away_-2.5 3.7%
total_exact
exact_0 8.3% exact_1 18.5% exact_2 25.9%
exact_3 21.6% exact_4 13.9% exact_5 7.1%
exact_6 3.0% exact_7plus 1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.0% draw 41.5% away 19.5%
total
over_0.5 69.3% under_0.5 30.7% over_1.5 33.1%
under_1.5 66.9% over_2.5 11.7% under_2.5 88.3%
btts
yes 18.6% no 81.4%
total_exact
exact_0 30.7% exact_1 36.3% exact_2 21.4%
exact_3 8.4% exact_4plus 3.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 33.2% draw 38.7% away 28.1%
total
over_0.5 74.7% under_0.5 25.3% over_1.5 39.9%
under_1.5 60.1% over_2.5 16.0% under_2.5 84.0%
btts
yes 24.6% no 75.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 30.7% H/D 6.1% H/A 2.2%
D/H 13.8% D/D 16.1% D/A 11.7%
A/H 1.7% A/D 3.9% A/A 14.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.3% under_7.5 30.7% over_8.5 57.3%
under_8.5 42.8% over_9.5 45.0% under_9.5 55.0%
over_10.5 33.7% under_10.5 66.3% over_11.5 24.0%
under_11.5 76.0% over_12.5 16.3% under_12.5 83.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.2% under_3.5 28.8% over_4.5 55.6%
under_4.5 44.4% over_5.5 40.5% under_5.5 59.5%
team_away
over_3.5 57.2% under_3.5 42.8% over_4.5 40.1%
under_4.5 59.9% over_5.5 25.9% under_5.5 74.1%
most
home 54.8% draw 10.7% away 34.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.0% away_+3.5 76.0% home_-1.5 43.7%
away_+1.5 56.3% home_-0.5 54.8% away_+0.5 45.3%
home_+0.5 65.5% away_-0.5 34.5% home_+1.5 75.1%
away_-1.5 25.0% home_+3.5 89.0% away_-3.5 11.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 67.5% under_22.5 32.5% over_24.5 55.7%
under_24.5 44.3% over_26.5 43.8% under_26.5 56.2%
over_28.5 32.6% under_28.5 67.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.1% under_10.5 24.9% over_12.5 59.9%
under_12.5 40.1% over_14.5 44.0% under_14.5 56.0%
team_away
over_10.5 57.7% under_10.5 42.3% over_12.5 40.1%
under_12.5 59.9% over_14.5 25.3% under_14.5 74.7%
most
home 60.8% draw 5.7% away 33.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.9% away_+4.5 63.1% home_-2.5 48.8%
away_+2.5 51.2% home_-0.5 60.8% away_+0.5 39.2%
home_+0.5 66.5% away_-0.5 33.5% home_+2.5 76.8%
away_-2.5 23.2% home_+4.5 85.0% away_-4.5 15.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 75.2% under_6.5 24.8% over_7.5 63.7%
under_7.5 36.3% over_8.5 51.4% under_8.5 48.6%
over_9.5 39.6% under_9.5 60.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.0% under_3.5 32.0% over_4.5 51.2%
under_4.5 48.8% over_5.5 35.7% under_5.5 64.4%
team_away
over_3.5 55.4% under_3.5 44.6% over_4.5 37.7%
under_4.5 62.3% over_5.5 23.4% under_5.5 76.6%
most
home 53.3% draw 12.2% away 34.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.4% away_+2.5 70.6% home_-0.5 53.3%
away_+0.5 46.7% home_+0.5 65.4% away_-0.5 34.6%
home_+2.5 84.7% away_-2.5 15.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 83.3% under_2.5 16.7% over_3.5 66.8%
under_3.5 33.2% over_4.5 47.9% under_4.5 52.1%
over_5.5 30.7% under_5.5 69.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.8% under_1.5 37.2% over_2.5 35.8%
under_2.5 64.2%
team_away
over_1.5 69.8% under_1.5 30.2% over_2.5 43.8%
under_2.5 56.2%
most
home 35.0% draw 19.1% away 45.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.2% away_+1.5 80.8% home_-0.5 35.0%
away_+0.5 65.0% home_+0.5 54.1% away_-0.5 45.9%
home_+1.5 72.1% away_-1.5 27.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 87.2% under_20.5 12.8% over_22.5 77.1%
under_22.5 22.9% over_24.5 64.1% under_24.5 35.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 68.7% under_9.5 31.3% over_11.5 46.6%
under_11.5 53.4% over_13.5 26.6% under_13.5 73.4%
team_away
over_9.5 92.5% under_9.5 7.5% over_11.5 81.5%
under_11.5 18.5% over_13.5 64.9% under_13.5 35.1%
most
home 21.2% draw 5.7% away 73.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 8.8% away_+3.5 91.2% home_-0.5 21.2%
away_+0.5 78.8% home_+2.5 40.3% away_-2.5 59.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.0% no 83.0%
home
yes 4.4% no 95.6%
away
yes 13.2% no 86.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Alanyaspor predictions · Goztep predictions · Süper Lig

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Markets

More on this match

Süper LigAlanyasporGoztepTrack record