Corum vs Eyupspor: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Süper Lig

Corum

DLL

Full time3-0Sun, 6 Sep 202615:00UK

Eyupspor

WDLLW

Model’s top convictions

71%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Corum or draw

64%

Draw or Eyupspor

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Corum 3-0 Eyupspor

✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card

8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Corum at 36.0%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 55.3% and it missed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 71.2% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 76.5% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 50.8% and it missed. We called Yes at 61.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 87.1% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 54.4% and it missed (11 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 62.3% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 51.5% and it landed (27 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 56.9% and it landed (13 shots on target). We called No at 77.8% and it landed.

Match data	Corum	Eyupspor
Goals, 1st half	2	0
Goals, 2nd half	1	0
Shots	19	8
Shots on target	9	4
Corners	8	3
Yellow cards	1	2
Red cards	0	0
Fouls	15	8

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

CorumWin probability

36.0%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals71.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.40

Corum or draw64.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.55

Draw or Eyupspor64.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.56

Model read

▾

"Corum or Eyupspor? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Expect a tight one: the model splits Corum and Eyupspor almost evenly, Corum marginally on top at 36%. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Corum at 57%. Caution noted. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 45% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. Form guide over the last six: Corum W0 D1 L2, Eyupspor W2 D2 L2. Corum are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners44.9%@ 2.23

Over 2.5 goals44.7%@ 2.24

Eyupspor win35.5%@ 2.82

Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners55.6%@ 1.80

Under 2.5 goals55.3%@ 1.81

Both teams to score50.8%@ 1.97

Random finds

1-1 correct score13.6%@ 7.37

1-0 correct score9.9%@ 10.12

0-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.20

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Corum

36.0%-21.3%

Draw

28.5%+3.5%

Eyupspor

35.5%+17.8%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.544.7%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.8%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.555.6%

Good chance

Over 9.544.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.4%

Low chance

Most cornersCorum59.3%Eyupspor30.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.563.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.551.5%

Good chance

Over 26.539.5%

Toss-up

Over 28.528.7%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.2%2.544.7%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.571.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

CorumDLL

EyupsporWDLLW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Corum

Eyupspor

League position#16 of 18#14 of 18

Record W-D-L0-1-21-0-2

Current streakL2W1

Record, home vs away0-0-10-0-1

Red cards this season12

League averages this season: 2.81 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 48% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Corum win1.622.78

Draw3.503.51

Eyupspor win4.752.82

Over 2.5 goals1.952.24

Under 2.5 goals1.851.81

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Corum win2.78

Draw3.51

Eyupspor win2.82

Both teams to score1.97

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10

Over 1.5 goals1.41

Over 2.5 goals2.24

Over 3.5 goals4.26

Corum most2.78

Eyupspor most2.82

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.43

Over 8.5 corners1.73

Over 9.5 corners2.19

Over 10.5 corners2.92

Corum most1.68

Eyupspor most3.31

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.25

Over 3.5 cards1.60

Over 4.5 cards2.33

Over 5.5 cards3.79

Corum most3.17

Eyupspor most2.04

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.44

Over 7.5 SoT1.76

Over 8.5 SoT2.26

Over 9.5 SoT3.05

Corum most1.62

Eyupspor most3.78

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.57

Over 24.5 shots1.94

Over 26.5 shots2.53

Over 28.5 shots3.49

Corum most1.48

Eyupspor most3.69

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.17

Over 22.5 fouls1.34

Over 24.5 fouls1.64

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	69.4%	Over 7.5	56.9%	Over 8.5	44.3%	Over 9.5	32.8%
Most: Corum	61.8%	Most: Eyupspor	26.4%
Corum Over 4.2	52.1%	Eyupspor Over 4.2	26.5%

Cards

Over 2.5	80.3%	Over 3.5	62.3%	Over 4.5	43.0%
Most: Corum	31.5%	Most: Eyupspor	49.1%
Corum Over 1.8	57.0%	Eyupspor Over 1.8	68.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Corum clean sheet	29.3%
Eyupspor clean sheet	29.0%
Corum win to nil	20.1%
Eyupspor win to nil	19.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	35.9%	draw	28.5%	away	35.5%

double_chance

1X	64.5%	12	71.5%	X2	64.1%

dnb

home	50.3%	away	49.7%

btts

yes	50.8%	no	49.2%

clean_sheet

home	29.3%	away	29.0%

win_to_nil

home	20.2%	away	19.9%

winning_margin

home_by_1	20.2%	home_by_2	10.5%	home_by_3plus	5.3%
away_by_1	20.0%	away_by_2	10.3%	away_by_3plus	5.2%

correct_score

0-0	9.2%	0-1	9.8%	0-2	6.4%
0-3	2.6%	0-4	0.8%	0-5	0.2%
1-0	9.9%	1-1	13.6%	1-2	7.9%
1-3	3.2%	1-4	1.0%	1-5	0.2%
2-0	6.5%	2-1	8.0%	2-2	4.9%
2-3	2.0%	2-4	0.6%	2-5	0.2%
3-0	2.7%	3-1	3.3%	3-2	2.0%
3-3	0.8%	3-4	0.3%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	0.8%	4-1	1.0%	4-2	0.6%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.2%	5-1	0.3%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.3%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.6%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	90.8%	under_0.5	9.2%	over_1.5	71.2%
under_1.5	28.8%	over_2.5	44.7%	under_2.5	55.3%
over_3.5	23.5%	under_3.5	76.5%	over_4.5	10.4%
under_4.5	89.6%	over_5.5	4.0%	under_5.5	96.0%

odd_even

odd	48.4%	even	51.7%

team_home

over_0.5	71.0%	under_0.5	29.0%	over_1.5	35.0%
under_1.5	65.0%	over_2.5	12.9%	under_2.5	87.2%

team_away

over_0.5	70.7%	under_0.5	29.3%	over_1.5	34.7%
under_1.5	65.3%	over_2.5	12.6%	under_2.5	87.4%

most

home	35.9%	draw	28.5%	away	35.5%

handicap

home_-2.5	5.3%	away_+2.5	94.7%	home_-1.5	15.8%
away_+1.5	84.2%	home_-0.5	35.9%	away_+0.5	64.1%
home_+0.5	64.5%	away_-0.5	35.5%	home_+1.5	84.5%
away_-1.5	15.5%	home_+2.5	94.8%	away_-2.5	5.2%

total_exact

exact_0	9.2%	exact_1	19.7%	exact_2	26.5%
exact_3	21.2%	exact_4	13.1%	exact_5	6.4%
exact_6	2.6%	exact_7plus	1.3%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	19.8%	draw	47.7%	away	32.6%

total

over_0.5	61.1%	under_0.5	38.9%	over_1.5	24.4%
under_1.5	75.6%	over_2.5	7.0%	under_2.5	93.0%

btts

yes	13.6%	no	86.4%

total_exact

exact_0	38.9%	exact_1	36.7%	exact_2	17.3%
exact_3	5.5%	exact_4plus	1.6%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	43.2%	draw	29.9%	away	26.9%

total

over_0.5	87.1%	under_0.5	12.9%	over_1.5	60.8%
under_1.5	39.2%	over_2.5	33.7%	under_2.5	66.3%

btts

yes	40.2%	no	59.8%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	15.1%	H/D	3.1%	H/A	1.5%
D/H	20.6%	D/D	14.2%	D/A	12.8%
A/H	5.0%	A/D	6.9%	A/A	20.7%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	69.7%	under_7.5	30.3%	over_8.5	57.8%
under_8.5	42.2%	over_9.5	45.6%	under_9.5	54.4%
over_10.5	34.3%	under_10.5	65.7%	over_11.5	24.5%
under_11.5	75.5%	over_12.5	16.8%	under_12.5	83.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	74.1%	under_3.5	25.9%	over_4.5	59.2%
under_4.5	40.8%	over_5.5	44.3%	under_5.5	55.7%

team_away

over_3.5	53.8%	under_3.5	46.2%	over_4.5	36.7%
under_4.5	63.3%	over_5.5	23.0%	under_5.5	77.0%

most

home	59.5%	draw	10.3%	away	30.3%

handicap

home_-3.5	28.0%	away_+3.5	72.0%	home_-1.5	48.5%
away_+1.5	51.5%	home_-0.5	59.5%	away_+0.5	40.5%
home_+0.5	69.8%	away_-0.5	30.3%	home_+1.5	78.7%
away_-1.5	21.3%	home_+3.5	91.1%	away_-3.5	8.9%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	63.7%	under_22.5	36.3%	over_24.5	51.5%
under_24.5	48.5%	over_26.5	39.5%	under_26.5	60.5%
over_28.5	28.7%	under_28.5	71.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	76.5%	under_10.5	23.5%	over_12.5	61.6%
under_12.5	38.5%	over_14.5	45.8%	under_14.5	54.2%

team_away

over_10.5	49.3%	under_10.5	50.7%	over_12.5	31.9%
under_12.5	68.1%	over_14.5	18.7%	under_14.5	81.3%

most

home	67.5%	draw	5.4%	away	27.1%

handicap

home_-4.5	43.4%	away_+4.5	56.6%	home_-2.5	55.7%
away_+2.5	44.3%	home_-0.5	67.5%	away_+0.5	32.5%
home_+0.5	72.9%	away_-0.5	27.1%	home_+2.5	82.2%
away_-2.5	17.8%	home_+4.5	89.1%	away_-4.5	10.9%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	69.4%	under_6.5	30.6%	over_7.5	56.9%
under_7.5	43.2%	over_8.5	44.3%	under_8.5	55.7%
over_9.5	32.8%	under_9.5	67.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	68.6%	under_3.5	31.4%	over_4.5	52.1%
under_4.5	47.9%	over_5.5	36.5%	under_5.5	63.5%

team_away

over_3.5	43.4%	under_3.5	56.6%	over_4.5	26.5%
under_4.5	73.6%	over_5.5	14.6%	under_5.5	85.4%

most

home	61.8%	draw	11.8%	away	26.4%

handicap

home_-2.5	36.3%	away_+2.5	63.7%	home_-0.5	61.8%
away_+0.5	38.2%	home_+0.5	73.6%	away_-0.5	26.4%
home_+2.5	90.1%	away_-2.5	9.9%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	80.3%	under_2.5	19.7%	over_3.5	62.3%
under_3.5	37.7%	over_4.5	43.0%	under_4.5	57.0%
over_5.5	26.4%	under_5.5	73.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	57.0%	under_1.5	43.0%	over_2.5	30.0%
under_2.5	70.0%

team_away

over_1.5	68.9%	under_1.5	31.1%	over_2.5	42.7%
under_2.5	57.3%

most

home	31.5%	draw	19.5%	away	49.1%

handicap

home_-1.5	16.3%	away_+1.5	83.7%	home_-0.5	31.5%
away_+0.5	68.5%	home_+0.5	50.9%	away_-0.5	49.1%
home_+1.5	69.9%	away_-1.5	30.1%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	85.3%	under_20.5	14.7%	over_22.5	74.5%
under_22.5	25.5%	over_24.5	61.0%	under_24.5	39.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	84.7%	under_9.5	15.3%	over_11.5	68.0%
under_11.5	32.0%	over_13.5	47.9%	under_13.5	52.1%

team_away

over_9.5	79.7%	under_9.5	20.3%	over_11.5	60.6%
under_11.5	39.4%	over_13.5	39.8%	under_13.5	60.2%

most

home	52.0%	draw	7.3%	away	40.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	30.8%	away_+3.5	69.2%	home_-0.5	52.0%
away_+0.5	48.0%	home_+2.5	72.7%	away_-2.5	27.3%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	22.2%	no	77.8%

home

yes	9.7%	no	90.3%

away

yes	13.9%	no	86.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Corum predictions · Eyupspor predictions · Süper Lig

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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