Fenerbahce vs Besiktas: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Süper Lig

Fenerbahce

WDLWW

Full time1-2Sat, 5 Sep 202618:00UK

Besiktas

LDWLW

Model’s top convictions

85%

Over 1.5 goals

75%

Fenerbahce or draw

65%

Over 2.5 goals

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Fenerbahce 1-2 Besiktas

✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card

9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Fenerbahce at 52.8%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 64.5% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 84.9% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 57.6% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 63.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 79.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 83.1% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 50.9% and it missed (9 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 71.1% and it landed (7 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 57.9% and it missed (23 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 69.4% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 78.8% and it landed.

Match data	Fenerbahce	Besiktas
Goals, 1st half	1	1
Goals, 2nd half	0	1
Shots	9	14
Shots on target	2	6
Corners	2	7
Yellow cards	4	3
Red cards	0	0
Fouls	18	21

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

FenerbahceWin probability

52.8%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals84.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.18

Fenerbahce or draw75.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.33

Over 2.5 goals64.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.55

Model read

▾

Few Süper Lig fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Fenerbahce carry a 53% win probability against Besiktas on 5 September 2026. The market broadly agrees, pricing Fenerbahce at 53%. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 64% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 64%. Form guide over the last six: Fenerbahce W4 D1 L1, Besiktas W3 D1 L2. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Fenerbahce, 0 draws and 2 for Besiktas, averaging 2.2 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.019 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Besiktas47.2%@ 2.12

Over 10.5 corners39.5%@ 2.53

Over 11.5 corners30.5%@ 3.28

Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners60.0%@ 1.67

Over 9.5 corners49.5%@ 2.02

Random finds

1-1 correct score10.0%@ 9.98

2-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.48

2-0 correct score7.2%@ 13.83

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Fenerbahce

52.8%-0.4%

Draw

22.6%-1.5%

Besiktas

24.6%+1.9%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.019 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.584.9%

High probability

Over 2.564.5%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes63.9%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.5%

Toss-up

Most cornersFenerbahce59.2%Besiktas30.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.569.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.557.9%

Good chance

Over 26.546.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.534.6%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.9%2.564.5%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 2.564.5%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

FenerbahceWDLWW

BesiktasLDWLW

Last 5 meetings: Fenerbahce 3 · 0 draws · Besiktas 2 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-04-05Fenerbahce 1-0 Besiktas

2025-11-02Besiktas 2-3 Fenerbahce

2025-05-04Fenerbahce 0-1 Besiktas

2024-12-07Besiktas 1-0 Fenerbahce

2024-04-27Fenerbahce 2-1 Besiktas

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Fenerbahce

Besiktas

League position#4 of 18#3 of 18

Record W-D-L2-0-12-0-1

Current streakW2W1

Record, home vs away1-0-00-0-1

Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.81 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 48% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Fenerbahce win1.761.89

Draw3.704.42

Besiktas win3.904.07

Over 2.5 goals1.701.55

Under 2.5 goals2.102.82

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Fenerbahce win1.90

Draw4.43

Besiktas win4.06

Both teams to score1.57

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.18

Over 2.5 goals1.55

Over 3.5 goals2.36

Over 4.5 goals4.14

Fenerbahce most1.90

Besiktas most4.06

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.35

Over 8.5 corners1.59

Over 9.5 corners1.96

Over 10.5 corners2.54

Fenerbahce most1.68

Besiktas most3.26

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.16

Over 3.5 cards1.41

Over 4.5 cards1.89

Over 5.5 cards2.82

Fenerbahce most2.67

Besiktas most2.28

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.25

Over 7.5 SoT1.44

Over 8.5 SoT1.73

Over 9.5 SoT2.17

Fenerbahce most1.74

Besiktas most3.21

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.44

Over 24.5 shots1.73

Over 26.5 shots2.17

Over 28.5 shots2.89

Fenerbahce most1.54

Besiktas most3.38

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.20

Over 22.5 fouls1.39

Over 24.5 fouls1.73

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	79.7%	Over 7.5	69.3%	Over 8.5	57.8%	Over 9.5	46.1%
Most: Fenerbahce	57.5%	Most: Besiktas	31.1%
Fenerbahce Over 4.2	58.3%	Besiktas Over 4.2	39.2%

Cards

Over 2.5	86.1%	Over 3.5	71.1%	Over 4.5	53.0%
Most: Fenerbahce	37.5%	Most: Besiktas	43.9%
Fenerbahce Over 1.8	67.5%	Besiktas Over 1.8	71.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Fenerbahce clean sheet	26.3%
Besiktas clean sheet	13.5%
Fenerbahce win to nil	22.2%
Besiktas win to nil	9.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	52.8%	draw	22.6%	away	24.6%

double_chance

1X	75.4%	12	77.4%	X2	47.2%

dnb

home	68.2%	away	31.8%

btts

yes	63.9%	no	36.1%

clean_sheet

home	26.7%	away	13.5%

win_to_nil

home	22.6%	away	9.4%

winning_margin

home_by_1	21.6%	home_by_2	16.1%	home_by_3plus	15.1%
away_by_1	14.1%	away_by_2	7.0%	away_by_3plus	3.6%

correct_score

0-0	4.1%	0-1	4.3%	0-2	3.2%
0-3	1.4%	0-4	0.5%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	6.8%	1-1	10.0%	1-2	6.3%
1-3	2.8%	1-4	0.9%	1-5	0.2%
2-0	7.2%	2-1	9.5%	2-2	6.3%
2-3	2.8%	2-4	0.9%	2-5	0.2%
3-0	4.8%	3-1	6.4%	3-2	4.2%
3-3	1.8%	3-4	0.6%	3-5	0.2%
4-0	2.4%	4-1	3.2%	4-2	2.1%
4-3	0.9%	4-4	0.3%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	1.0%	5-1	1.3%	5-2	0.8%
5-3	0.4%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.9%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	10.0%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	95.9%	under_0.5	4.1%	over_1.5	84.9%
under_1.5	15.1%	over_2.5	64.5%	under_2.5	35.5%
over_3.5	42.4%	under_3.5	57.6%	over_4.5	24.1%
under_4.5	75.9%	over_5.5	12.0%	under_5.5	88.0%

odd_even

odd	49.0%	even	51.0%

team_home

over_0.5	86.5%	under_0.5	13.5%	over_1.5	59.4%
under_1.5	40.6%	over_2.5	32.4%	under_2.5	67.6%

team_away

over_0.5	73.3%	under_0.5	26.7%	over_1.5	38.0%
under_1.5	62.0%	over_2.5	14.8%	under_2.5	85.2%

most

home	52.8%	draw	22.6%	away	24.6%

handicap

home_-2.5	15.1%	away_+2.5	84.9%	home_-1.5	31.2%
away_+1.5	68.8%	home_-0.5	52.8%	away_+0.5	47.2%
home_+0.5	75.4%	away_-0.5	24.6%	home_+1.5	89.4%
away_-1.5	10.6%	home_+2.5	96.4%	away_-2.5	3.6%

total_exact

exact_0	4.1%	exact_1	11.0%	exact_2	20.4%
exact_3	22.1%	exact_4	18.3%	exact_5	12.2%
exact_6	6.7%	exact_7plus	5.2%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	34.3%	draw	35.4%	away	30.3%

total

over_0.5	79.6%	under_0.5	20.4%	over_1.5	47.2%
under_1.5	52.8%	over_2.5	21.5%	under_2.5	78.6%

btts

yes	30.1%	no	69.9%

total_exact

exact_0	20.4%	exact_1	32.4%	exact_2	25.8%
exact_3	13.7%	exact_4plus	7.8%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	51.0%	draw	30.9%	away	18.1%

total

over_0.5	83.1%	under_0.5	16.9%	over_1.5	53.0%
under_1.5	47.0%	over_2.5	26.3%	under_2.5	73.7%

btts

yes	30.8%	no	69.3%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	29.8%	H/D	3.5%	H/A	1.1%
D/H	18.1%	D/D	10.9%	D/A	6.4%
A/H	5.4%	A/D	7.1%	A/A	17.8%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	74.1%	under_7.5	26.0%	over_8.5	62.8%
under_8.5	37.2%	over_9.5	50.9%	under_9.5	49.1%
over_10.5	39.4%	under_10.5	60.6%	over_11.5	29.1%
under_11.5	70.9%	over_12.5	20.5%	under_12.5	79.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	76.5%	under_3.5	23.5%	over_4.5	62.4%
under_4.5	37.7%	over_5.5	47.6%	under_5.5	52.4%

team_away

over_3.5	57.4%	under_3.5	42.7%	over_4.5	40.3%
under_4.5	59.7%	over_5.5	26.1%	under_5.5	73.9%

most

home	59.4%	draw	10.0%	away	30.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	28.8%	away_+3.5	71.2%	home_-1.5	48.8%
away_+1.5	51.2%	home_-0.5	59.4%	away_+0.5	40.6%
home_+0.5	69.4%	away_-0.5	30.6%	home_+1.5	78.1%
away_-1.5	21.9%	home_+3.5	90.5%	away_-3.5	9.6%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	69.5%	under_22.5	30.5%	over_24.5	57.9%
under_24.5	42.1%	over_26.5	46.0%	under_26.5	54.0%
over_28.5	34.6%	under_28.5	65.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	78.5%	under_10.5	21.6%	over_12.5	64.1%
under_12.5	35.9%	over_14.5	48.5%	under_14.5	51.5%

team_away

over_10.5	56.1%	under_10.5	44.0%	over_12.5	38.4%
under_12.5	61.6%	over_14.5	23.9%	under_14.5	76.1%

most

home	65.0%	draw	5.4%	away	29.6%

handicap

home_-4.5	41.2%	away_+4.5	58.8%	home_-2.5	53.2%
away_+2.5	46.8%	home_-0.5	65.0%	away_+0.5	35.0%
home_+0.5	70.4%	away_-0.5	29.6%	home_+2.5	79.9%
away_-2.5	20.1%	home_+4.5	87.3%	away_-4.5	12.7%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	79.7%	under_6.5	20.3%	over_7.5	69.4%
under_7.5	30.7%	over_8.5	57.8%	under_8.5	42.2%
over_9.5	46.1%	under_9.5	53.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	73.8%	under_3.5	26.2%	over_4.5	58.3%
under_4.5	41.7%	over_5.5	42.9%	under_5.5	57.1%

team_away

over_3.5	56.9%	under_3.5	43.1%	over_4.5	39.2%
under_4.5	60.8%	over_5.5	24.7%	under_5.5	75.3%

most

home	57.5%	draw	11.4%	away	31.1%

handicap

home_-2.5	34.1%	away_+2.5	66.0%	home_-0.5	57.5%
away_+0.5	42.5%	home_+0.5	68.9%	away_-0.5	31.1%
home_+2.5	86.3%	away_-2.5	13.7%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	86.1%	under_2.5	13.9%	over_3.5	71.1%
under_3.5	28.9%	over_4.5	53.0%	under_4.5	47.0%
over_5.5	35.5%	under_5.5	64.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	67.5%	under_1.5	32.5%	over_2.5	41.1%
under_2.5	58.9%

team_away

over_1.5	71.4%	under_1.5	28.6%	over_2.5	45.8%
under_2.5	54.2%

most

home	37.5%	draw	18.6%	away	43.9%

handicap

home_-1.5	21.5%	away_+1.5	78.5%	home_-0.5	37.5%
away_+0.5	62.5%	home_+0.5	56.1%	away_-0.5	43.9%
home_+1.5	73.3%	away_-1.5	26.7%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	83.3%	under_20.5	16.7%	over_22.5	71.7%
under_22.5	28.3%	over_24.5	57.7%	under_24.5	42.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	76.6%	under_9.5	23.4%	over_11.5	56.5%
under_11.5	43.5%	over_13.5	35.7%	under_13.5	64.3%

team_away

over_9.5	84.3%	under_9.5	15.7%	over_11.5	67.4%
under_11.5	32.6%	over_13.5	47.2%	under_13.5	52.8%

most

home	38.2%	draw	7.3%	away	54.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	19.5%	away_+3.5	80.5%	home_-0.5	38.2%
away_+0.5	61.8%	home_+2.5	60.2%	away_-2.5	39.8%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	21.2%	no	78.8%

home

yes	6.4%	no	93.6%

away

yes	15.7%	no	84.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Fenerbahce predictions · Besiktas predictions · Süper Lig

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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