Süper Lig
Fenerbahce vs 
Besiktas Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 71.1% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 78.8% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 71.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 86.1% for over 2.5 to 35.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.0%. Between the two sides, Besiktas are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.9%, with a level count at 18.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 86.1% | 13.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 35.5% | 64.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
67.5%
41.1%
71.4%
45.8%
Card handicap
| Fenerbahce line | Fenerbahce | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.5% | 78.5% |
| -0.5 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| +0.5 | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| +1.5 | 73.3% | 26.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 83.3% | 16.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 57.7% | 42.3% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Fenerbahce vs Besiktas. It tips Besiktas for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
71.1%Over 3.5 cards21.2%Any red card67.5%Fenerbahce over 1.5 cards71.4%Besiktas over 1.5 cards71.7%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Fenerbahce over 1.5 cards sits at 67.5% and Besiktas at 71.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.2% (Fenerbahce 6.4%, Besiktas 15.7%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Fenerbahce vs Besiktas?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 71.1% for Fenerbahce vs Besiktas.
Will there be a red card in Fenerbahce vs Besiktas?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 21.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Fenerbahce vs Besiktas?
Before kickoff, the model rated Besiktas to pick up more cards at 43.9%, with a level count at 18.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.