Bundesliga
FC Koln vs 
Hoffenheim Shots
Result
Settled, final score 3-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 57.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 69.2% for over 22.5 to 33.9% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.3%. Between the two sides, FC Koln are the model’s pick to have more shots at 61.8%, with a level count at 5.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 57.5% | 42.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 33.9% | 66.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
76.8%
61.7%
45.7%
58.5%
40.6%
25.5%
Shot handicap
| FC Koln line | FC Koln | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| -2.5 | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| -0.5 | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| +0.5 | 67.5% | 32.5% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 81.3% | 18.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 48.4% | 51.6% |
This season (2025/26)
13.4FC Koln shots per game14.1Hoffenheim shots per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges FC Koln.
In-depth analysis
57.5%Over 24.5 shots61.7%FC Koln over 12.5 shots40.6%Hoffenheim over 12.5 shots71.4%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, FC Koln over 12.5 shots sits at 61.7% and Hoffenheim at 40.6%. This season FC Koln have averaged 13.4 shots a game and Hoffenheim 14.1.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in FC Koln vs Hoffenheim?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 57.5% for FC Koln vs Hoffenheim.
Which team will have more shots in FC Koln vs Hoffenheim?
Before kickoff, the model rated FC Koln to take more shots at 61.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.