FC Koln vs Hoffenheim prediction & probabilities (2026-08-29)

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FC Koln vs Hoffenheim: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Bundesliga
FC Koln

DLDLL

Full time3-2Sat, 29 Aug 202614:30UK24°C · Cloudy
Hoffenheim

WWDWL

Model’s top convictions

85%

Over 1.5 goals

66%

Both teams to score

65%

Over 2.5 goals

Full time2 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

FC Koln 3-2 Hoffenheim
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Both teams to score
2 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Hoffenheim at 38.3%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 64.7% and it landed (5 goals). We called Yes at 66.2% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
HoffenheimWin probability
38.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals85.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.18
Both teams to score66.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.51
Over 2.5 goals64.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.55

Model read

▾

Expect a tight one: the model splits FC Koln and Hoffenheim almost evenly, Hoffenheim marginally on top at 38%. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Hoffenheim higher (42%) than our model does. 2) The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 65% with both teams to score at 66%. 3) The recent series reads 2 wins for FC Koln, 2 draws and 1 for Hoffenheim over 5 games, 3.0 goals on average. Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for FC Koln against W3 D2 L1 for Hoffenheim. Verdict: no bet. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.38, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners40.3%@ 2.48
Hoffenheim win38.3%@ 2.61
Over 11.5 corners31.1%@ 3.22
Medium risk

FC Koln or draw61.7%@ 1.62
Over 8.5 corners61.3%@ 1.63
Over 9.5 corners50.6%@ 1.98
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.4%@ 9.62
1-2 correct score8.3%@ 12.00
2-1 correct score8.1%@ 12.29

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

FC Koln

37.9%+5.1%

Draw

23.8%-1.0%

Hoffenheim

38.3%-4.1%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.38, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.585.0%

High probability

Over 2.564.7%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes66.2%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.3%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.6%

Good chance

Over 10.540.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.1%

Toss-up

Most cornersFC Koln52.9%Hoffenheim36.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.569.2%

Strong chance

Over 24.557.5%

Good chance

Over 26.545.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.533.9%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.585.0%2.564.7%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 2.564.7%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

FC KolnDLDLL
HoffenheimWWDWL

Last 5 meetings: FC Koln 2 · 2 draws · Hoffenheim 1 · 3.0 goals/game.

2026-02-21FC Koln 2-2 Hoffenheim
2025-10-03Hoffenheim 0-1 FC Koln
2024-02-11Hoffenheim 1-1 FC Koln
2023-09-16FC Koln 1-3 Hoffenheim
2023-04-22Hoffenheim 1-3 FC Koln

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

FC KolnHoffenheim
League position#14 of 18#5 of 18
Record W-D-L7-11-1618-7-9
Current streakL2L1
Points per game0.941.79
Record, home vs away5-4-88-5-4
PPG, home vs away1.121.71
Goals scored per game1.441.91
Goals conceded per game1.851.53
Scored, home vs away1.761.76
Conceded, home vs away1.761.82
1st half goals per game0.561.06
2nd half goals per game0.880.85
Corners won per game4.65.8
Cards per game2.02.2
Fouls per game8.313.9
Red cards this season33
Shots per game13.414.1
Shots on target per game4.65.2
xG for per game1.581.86
xG against per game1.821.59
Over 2.5 rate

64.7%70.6%

BTTS rate

79.4%64.7%

Clean sheets

8.8%20.6%

Rates this season:FC KolnHoffenheim

League averages this season: 3.24 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 64% · BTTS in 62%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Adam HlozekHoffenheim · key player
To score22.9%

@ 4.37

1+ on target53.8%

@ 1.86

2+ shots55.8%

@ 1.79

Shots/90 2.81SoT/90 1.16Goals/90 0.39
Haris TabakovicHoffenheim · in form
To score12.7%

@ 7.87

1+ on target36.5%

@ 2.74

2+ shots39.5%

@ 2.53

Shots/90 3.42SoT/90 1.14Goals/90 0.34
Fisnik AsllaniHoffenheim · in form
To score26.1%

@ 3.83

1+ on target57.3%

@ 1.75

2+ shots64.7%

@ 1.55

Shots/90 2.7SoT/90 1.04Goals/90 0.37

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
FC Koln win2.882.64
Draw3.754.20
Hoffenheim win2.252.61
Over 2.5 goals1.531.55
Under 2.5 goals2.502.83

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

FC Koln win2.69
Draw4.19
Hoffenheim win2.57
Both teams to score1.51

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.18
Over 2.5 goals1.55
Over 3.5 goals2.34
Over 4.5 goals4.11
FC Koln most2.69
Hoffenheim most2.57

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.56
Over 9.5 corners1.92
Over 10.5 corners2.48
FC Koln most1.89
Hoffenheim most2.75

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.30
Over 3.5 cards1.74
Over 4.5 cards2.64
Over 5.5 cards4.53
FC Koln most3.29
Hoffenheim most2.02

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.23
Over 7.5 SoT1.40
Over 8.5 SoT1.66
Over 9.5 SoT2.07
FC Koln most1.78
Hoffenheim most3.08

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.44
Over 24.5 shots1.74
Over 26.5 shots2.21
Over 28.5 shots2.95
FC Koln most1.62
Hoffenheim most3.08

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.11
Over 22.5 fouls2.81
Over 24.5 fouls3.94
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 81.3% Over 7.5 71.4% Over 8.5 60.1% Over 9.5 48.4%
Most: FC Koln 56.2% Most: Hoffenheim 32.4%
FC Koln Over 4.2 59.1% Hoffenheim Over 4.2 41.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 76.7% Over 3.5 57.4% Over 4.5 37.9%
Most: FC Koln 30.4% Most: Hoffenheim 49.5%
FC Koln Over 1.8 52.8% Hoffenheim Over 1.8 66.2%

Hoffenheim: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Adam Hlozek 2.81 1.16 0.39 53.8% 55.8% 22.9%
Haris Tabakovic 3.42 1.14 0.34 36.5% 39.5% 12.7%
Fisnik Asllani 2.7 1.04 0.37 57.3% 64.7% 26.1%
Andrej Kramaric 2.36 1 0.4 57.2% 59.5% 28.8%
Max Moerstedt 1.97 0.93 0.23 21.6% 9.5% 5.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

FC Koln clean sheet 18.5%
Hoffenheim clean sheet 19.1%
FC Koln win to nil 14.4%
Hoffenheim win to nil 15.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 37.2% draw 23.9% away 38.9%
double_chance
1X 61.1% 12 76.1% X2 62.8%
dnb
home 48.9% away 51.1%
btts
yes 66.2% no 33.8%
clean_sheet
home 18.6% away 19.3%
win_to_nil
home 14.5% away 15.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.3% home_by_2 11.2% home_by_3plus 7.7%
away_by_1 18.8% away_by_2 11.7% away_by_3plus 8.5%
correct_score
0-0 4.1% 0-1 5.5% 0-2 5.1%
0-3 2.9% 0-4 1.2% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 5.4% 1-1 10.4% 1-2 8.3%
1-3 4.7% 1-4 2.0% 1-5 0.7%
2-0 4.9% 2-1 8.1% 2-2 6.9%
2-3 3.9% 2-4 1.6% 2-5 0.6%
3-0 2.7% 3-1 4.5% 3-2 3.8%
3-3 2.1% 3-4 0.9% 3-5 0.3%
4-0 1.1% 4-1 1.8% 4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.9% 4-4 0.4% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.9% under_0.5 4.1% over_1.5 85.0%
under_1.5 15.0% over_2.5 64.7% under_2.5 35.3%
over_3.5 42.7% under_3.5 57.3% over_4.5 24.4%
under_4.5 75.6% over_5.5 12.1% under_5.5 87.9%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 80.7% under_0.5 19.3% over_1.5 48.9%
under_1.5 51.1% over_2.5 22.8% under_2.5 77.2%
team_away
over_0.5 81.4% under_0.5 18.6% over_1.5 50.2%
under_1.5 49.8% over_2.5 24.0% under_2.5 76.0%
most
home 37.2% draw 23.9% away 38.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.7% away_+2.5 92.3% home_-1.5 18.9%
away_+1.5 81.1% home_-0.5 37.2% away_+0.5 62.8%
home_+0.5 61.1% away_-0.5 38.9% home_+1.5 79.8%
away_-1.5 20.2% home_+2.5 91.6% away_-2.5 8.5%
total_exact
exact_0 4.1% exact_1 10.9% exact_2 20.3%
exact_3 22.0% exact_4 18.3% exact_5 12.2%
exact_6 6.8% exact_7plus 5.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.0% draw 33.6% away 39.4%
total
over_0.5 81.9% under_0.5 18.1% over_1.5 50.9%
under_1.5 49.1% over_2.5 24.5% under_2.5 75.5%
btts
yes 32.5% no 67.5%
total_exact
exact_0 18.1% exact_1 31.0% exact_2 26.4%
exact_3 15.0% exact_4plus 9.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 33.6% draw 33.6% away 32.8%
total
over_0.5 82.5% under_0.5 17.5% over_1.5 51.9%
under_1.5 48.1% over_2.5 25.4% under_2.5 74.6%
btts
yes 33.8% no 66.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 20.1% H/D 4.7% H/A 2.3%
D/H 11.3% D/D 11.3% D/A 11.0%
A/H 3.2% A/D 6.4% A/A 29.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.0% under_7.5 25.0% over_8.5 63.9%
under_8.5 36.1% over_9.5 52.0% under_9.5 48.0%
over_10.5 40.3% under_10.5 59.7% over_11.5 29.8%
under_11.5 70.2% over_12.5 21.1% under_12.5 78.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.0% under_3.5 26.1% over_4.5 58.9%
under_4.5 41.1% over_5.5 43.7% under_5.5 56.3%
team_away
over_3.5 63.2% under_3.5 36.8% over_4.5 46.3%
under_4.5 53.7% over_5.5 31.3% under_5.5 68.7%
most
home 53.0% draw 10.5% away 36.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.3% away_+3.5 76.7% home_-1.5 42.3%
away_+1.5 57.7% home_-0.5 53.0% away_+0.5 47.0%
home_+0.5 63.6% away_-0.5 36.4% home_+1.5 73.2%
away_-1.5 26.8% home_+3.5 87.6% away_-3.5 12.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 69.2% under_22.5 30.8% over_24.5 57.5%
under_24.5 42.6% over_26.5 45.3% under_26.5 54.7%
over_28.5 33.9% under_28.5 66.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.8% under_10.5 23.2% over_12.5 61.7%
under_12.5 38.3% over_14.5 45.7% under_14.5 54.4%
team_away
over_10.5 58.5% under_10.5 41.5% over_12.5 40.6%
under_12.5 59.4% over_14.5 25.5% under_14.5 74.5%
most
home 61.8% draw 5.7% away 32.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.6% away_+4.5 62.4% home_-2.5 49.7%
away_+2.5 50.3% home_-0.5 61.8% away_+0.5 38.2%
home_+0.5 67.5% away_-0.5 32.5% home_+2.5 77.7%
away_-2.5 22.3% home_+4.5 85.8% away_-4.5 14.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 81.3% under_6.5 18.7% over_7.5 71.4%
under_7.5 28.6% over_8.5 60.1% under_8.5 39.9%
over_9.5 48.4% under_9.5 51.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.4% under_3.5 25.6% over_4.5 59.1%
under_4.5 40.9% over_5.5 43.6% under_5.5 56.4%
team_away
over_3.5 59.6% under_3.5 40.4% over_4.5 41.9%
under_4.5 58.1% over_5.5 27.0% under_5.5 73.0%
most
home 56.2% draw 11.4% away 32.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.0% away_+2.5 67.0% home_-0.5 56.2%
away_+0.5 43.8% home_+0.5 67.6% away_-0.5 32.4%
home_+2.5 85.4% away_-2.5 14.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 76.8% under_2.5 23.3% over_3.5 57.4%
under_3.5 42.6% over_4.5 37.9% under_4.5 62.1%
over_5.5 22.1% under_5.5 77.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 52.8% under_1.5 47.2% over_2.5 26.1%
under_2.5 73.9%
team_away
over_1.5 66.2% under_1.5 33.8% over_2.5 39.6%
under_2.5 60.4%
most
home 30.4% draw 20.0% away 49.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.2% away_+1.5 84.9% home_-0.5 30.4%
away_+0.5 69.6% home_+0.5 50.5% away_-0.5 49.5%
home_+1.5 70.1% away_-1.5 29.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 47.4% under_20.5 52.6% over_22.5 35.6%
under_22.5 64.4% over_24.5 25.4% under_24.5 74.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 39.4% under_9.5 60.6% over_11.5 23.7%
under_11.5 76.3% over_13.5 13.0% under_13.5 87.0%
team_away
over_9.5 64.1% under_9.5 35.9% over_11.5 47.7%
under_11.5 52.3% over_13.5 32.9% under_13.5 67.1%
most
home 29.9% draw 5.9% away 64.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 15.5% away_+3.5 84.5% home_-0.5 29.9%
away_+0.5 70.1% home_+2.5 48.4% away_-2.5 51.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 22.0% no 78.0%
home
yes 11.4% no 88.6%
away
yes 12.0% no 88.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: FC Koln predictions · Hoffenheim predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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