FC Koln vs Hoffenheim: model prediction
Bundesliga
FC KolnDLDLL
Sat, 29 Aug 202614:30UK
HoffenheimWWDWL
Model’s top convictions
85%
Over 1.5 goals
66%
Both teams to score
65%
Over 2.5 goals
No bet
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model’s best bet
HoffenheimWin probability
38.4%
Top 3 convictions
Over 1.5 goals85.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.18
Both teams to score66.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.51
Over 2.5 goals64.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.55
Model read
▾
Expect a tight one: the model splits FC Koln and Hoffenheim almost evenly, Hoffenheim marginally on top at 38%. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 65% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 66%. The recent series reads 2 wins for FC Koln, 2 draws and 1 for Hoffenheim over 5 games, 3.0 goals on average. Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for FC Koln against W3 D2 L1 for Hoffenheim. Verdict: no bet. The numbers do not clear our bar.
Value & higher-risk angles
High risk
Over 10.5 corners40.3%@ 2.48
Hoffenheim win38.4%@ 2.61
Over 11.5 corners31.1%@ 3.22
Medium risk
FC Koln or draw61.6%@ 1.62
Over 8.5 corners61.3%@ 1.63
Over 9.5 corners50.6%@ 1.98
Random finds
1-1 correct score10.4%@ 9.62
1-2 correct score8.3%@ 12.00
2-1 correct score8.1%@ 12.29
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
FC Koln
37.9%
Draw
23.7%
Hoffenheim
38.4%
Model
Goals markets
★ StrongestOver 1.585.0%
High probability
Over 2.564.7%
Strong chance
BTTS · Yes66.2%
Strong chance
Corners markets
Over 8.561.3%
Strong chance
Over 9.550.6%
Good chance
Over 10.540.3%
Toss-up
Over 11.531.1%
Toss-up
Most cornersFC Koln 52.9% · Hoffenheim 36.3%
Totals line guide
0.5·1.585.0%2.564.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.564.7%
Discipline: NO_ODDS.
Form & head-to-head
FC KolnDLDLL
HoffenheimWWDWL
Last 5 meetings: FC Koln 2 · 2 draws · Hoffenheim 1 · 3.0 goals/game.
2026-02-21FC Koln 2-2 Hoffenheim
2025-10-03Hoffenheim 0-1 FC Koln
2024-02-11Hoffenheim 1-1 FC Koln
2023-09-16FC Koln 1-3 Hoffenheim
2023-04-22Hoffenheim 1-3 FC Koln
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
FC KolnHoffenheimLeague position#14 of 18#5 of 18
Record W-D-L7-11-1618-7-9
Current streakL2L1
Points per game0.941.79
Record, home vs away5-4-88-5-4
PPG, home vs away1.121.71
Goals scored per game1.441.91
Goals conceded per game1.851.53
Scored, home vs away1.761.76
Conceded, home vs away1.761.82
1st half goals per game0.561.06
2nd half goals per game0.880.85
Corners won per game4.65.8
Cards per game2.02.2
Fouls per game8.313.9
Red cards this season33
Shots on target per game4.65.2
xG for per game1.581.86
xG against per game1.821.59
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%70.6%
BTTS rate
79.4%64.7%
Clean sheets
8.8%20.6%
Rates this season:FC KolnHoffenheim
League averages this season: 3.24 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 64% · BTTS in 62%. Full league tables & stats →
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Adam HlozekHoffenheim · key player
To score22.4%
@ 4.46
1+ on target54.2%
@ 1.85
2+ shots57.8%
@ 1.73
Shots/90 2.91SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.38
Haris TabakovicHoffenheim · in form
To score12.7%
@ 7.87
1+ on target36.5%
@ 2.74
2+ shots39.5%
@ 2.53
Shots/90 3.42SoT/90 1.14Goals/90 0.34
Andrej KramaricHoffenheim · in form
To score31.8%
@ 3.14
1+ on target59.1%
@ 1.69
2+ shots60.3%
@ 1.66
Shots/90 2.39SoT/90 1.05Goals/90 0.45
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
FC Koln win2.69
Draw4.19
Hoffenheim win2.57
Both teams to score1.51
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.18
Over 2.5 goals1.55
Over 3.5 goals2.34
Over 4.5 goals4.11
FC Koln most2.69
Hoffenheim most2.57
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.56
Over 9.5 corners1.92
Over 10.5 corners2.48
FC Koln most1.89
Hoffenheim most2.75
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.30
Over 3.5 cards1.74
Over 4.5 cards2.64
Over 5.5 cards4.53
FC Koln most3.29
Hoffenheim most2.02
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.23
Over 7.5 SoT1.40
Over 8.5 SoT1.66
Over 9.5 SoT2.07
FC Koln most1.78
Hoffenheim most3.08
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.44
Over 24.5 shots1.74
Over 26.5 shots2.21
Over 28.5 shots2.95
FC Koln most1.62
Hoffenheim most3.08
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls2.11
Over 22.5 fouls2.81
Over 24.5 fouls3.94
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 81.3% | Over 7.5 | 71.4% | Over 8.5 | 60.1% | Over 9.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: FC Koln | 56.2% | Most: Hoffenheim | 32.4% | ||||
| FC Koln Over 4.2 | 59.1% | Hoffenheim Over 4.2 | 41.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 76.7% | Over 3.5 | 57.4% | Over 4.5 | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: FC Koln | 30.4% | Most: Hoffenheim | 49.5% | ||
| FC Koln Over 1.8 | 52.8% | Hoffenheim Over 1.8 | 66.2% |
Hoffenheim: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hlozek | 2.91 | 1.17 | 0.38 | 54.2% | 57.8% | 22.4% |
| Haris Tabakovic | 3.42 | 1.14 | 0.34 | 36.5% | 39.5% | 12.7% |
| Andrej Kramaric | 2.39 | 1.05 | 0.45 | 59.1% | 60.3% | 31.8% |
| Fisnik Asllani | 2.7 | 1.04 | 0.37 | 57.3% | 64.7% | 26.1% |
| Max Moerstedt | 2.08 | 0.92 | 0.23 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 5.7% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 37.2% | draw | 23.9% | away | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 61.1% | 12 | 76.1% | X2 | 62.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 48.9% | away | 51.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 66.2% | no | 33.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 18.6% | away | 19.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 14.5% | away | 15.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 18.3% | home_by_2 | 11.2% | home_by_3plus | 7.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 18.8% | away_by_2 | 11.7% | away_by_3plus | 8.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.1% | 0-1 | 5.5% | 0-2 | 5.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.9% | 0-4 | 1.2% | 0-5 | 0.4% |
| 1-0 | 5.4% | 1-1 | 10.4% | 1-2 | 8.3% |
| 1-3 | 4.7% | 1-4 | 2.0% | 1-5 | 0.7% |
| 2-0 | 4.9% | 2-1 | 8.1% | 2-2 | 6.9% |
| 2-3 | 3.9% | 2-4 | 1.6% | 2-5 | 0.6% |
| 3-0 | 2.7% | 3-1 | 4.5% | 3-2 | 3.8% |
| 3-3 | 2.1% | 3-4 | 0.9% | 3-5 | 0.3% |
| 4-0 | 1.1% | 4-1 | 1.8% | 4-2 | 1.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.9% | 4-4 | 0.4% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.6% | 5-2 | 0.5% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 10.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.9% | under_0.5 | 4.1% | over_1.5 | 85.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 15.0% | over_2.5 | 64.7% | under_2.5 | 35.3% |
| over_3.5 | 42.7% | under_3.5 | 57.3% | over_4.5 | 24.4% |
| under_4.5 | 75.6% | over_5.5 | 12.1% | under_5.5 | 87.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 80.7% | under_0.5 | 19.3% | over_1.5 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 51.1% | over_2.5 | 22.8% | under_2.5 | 77.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 81.4% | under_0.5 | 18.6% | over_1.5 | 50.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.8% | over_2.5 | 24.0% | under_2.5 | 76.0% |
most
| home | 37.2% | draw | 23.9% | away | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 7.7% | away_+2.5 | 92.3% | home_-1.5 | 18.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 81.1% | home_-0.5 | 37.2% | away_+0.5 | 62.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.1% | away_-0.5 | 38.9% | home_+1.5 | 79.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 20.2% | home_+2.5 | 91.6% | away_-2.5 | 8.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.1% | exact_1 | 10.9% | exact_2 | 20.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.0% | exact_4 | 18.3% | exact_5 | 12.2% |
| exact_6 | 6.8% | exact_7plus | 5.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 27.0% | draw | 33.6% | away | 39.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 81.9% | under_0.5 | 18.1% | over_1.5 | 50.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.1% | over_2.5 | 24.5% | under_2.5 | 75.5% |
btts
| yes | 32.5% | no | 67.5% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 18.1% | exact_1 | 31.0% | exact_2 | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 15.0% | exact_4plus | 9.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 33.6% | draw | 33.6% | away | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 82.5% | under_0.5 | 17.5% | over_1.5 | 51.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 48.1% | over_2.5 | 25.4% | under_2.5 | 74.6% |
btts
| yes | 33.8% | no | 66.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 20.1% | H/D | 4.7% | H/A | 2.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 11.3% | D/D | 11.3% | D/A | 11.0% |
| A/H | 3.2% | A/D | 6.4% | A/A | 29.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 75.0% | under_7.5 | 25.0% | over_8.5 | 63.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.1% | over_9.5 | 52.0% | under_9.5 | 48.0% |
| over_10.5 | 40.3% | under_10.5 | 59.7% | over_11.5 | 29.8% |
| under_11.5 | 70.2% | over_12.5 | 21.1% | under_12.5 | 78.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.0% | under_3.5 | 26.1% | over_4.5 | 58.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.1% | over_5.5 | 43.7% | under_5.5 | 56.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.2% | under_3.5 | 36.8% | over_4.5 | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.7% | over_5.5 | 31.3% | under_5.5 | 68.7% |
most
| home | 53.0% | draw | 10.5% | away | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.3% | away_+3.5 | 76.7% | home_-1.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.7% | home_-0.5 | 53.0% | away_+0.5 | 47.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.6% | away_-0.5 | 36.4% | home_+1.5 | 73.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.8% | home_+3.5 | 87.6% | away_-3.5 | 12.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 69.2% | under_22.5 | 30.8% | over_24.5 | 57.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 42.6% | over_26.5 | 45.3% | under_26.5 | 54.7% |
| over_28.5 | 33.9% | under_28.5 | 66.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 76.8% | under_10.5 | 23.2% | over_12.5 | 61.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 38.3% | over_14.5 | 45.7% | under_14.5 | 54.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 58.5% | under_10.5 | 41.5% | over_12.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 59.4% | over_14.5 | 25.5% | under_14.5 | 74.5% |
most
| home | 61.8% | draw | 5.7% | away | 32.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.6% | away_+4.5 | 62.4% | home_-2.5 | 49.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.3% | home_-0.5 | 61.8% | away_+0.5 | 38.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.5% | away_-0.5 | 32.5% | home_+2.5 | 77.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.3% | home_+4.5 | 85.8% | away_-4.5 | 14.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 81.3% | under_6.5 | 18.7% | over_7.5 | 71.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 28.6% | over_8.5 | 60.1% | under_8.5 | 39.9% |
| over_9.5 | 48.4% | under_9.5 | 51.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.4% | under_3.5 | 25.6% | over_4.5 | 59.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.9% | over_5.5 | 43.6% | under_5.5 | 56.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.6% | under_3.5 | 40.4% | over_4.5 | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.1% | over_5.5 | 27.0% | under_5.5 | 73.0% |
most
| home | 56.2% | draw | 11.4% | away | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 33.0% | away_+2.5 | 67.0% | home_-0.5 | 56.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 43.8% | home_+0.5 | 67.6% | away_-0.5 | 32.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.4% | away_-2.5 | 14.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 76.8% | under_2.5 | 23.3% | over_3.5 | 57.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 42.6% | over_4.5 | 37.9% | under_4.5 | 62.1% |
| over_5.5 | 22.1% | under_5.5 | 77.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 52.8% | under_1.5 | 47.2% | over_2.5 | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 73.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.2% | under_1.5 | 33.8% | over_2.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 60.4% |
most
| home | 30.4% | draw | 20.0% | away | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 15.2% | away_+1.5 | 84.9% | home_-0.5 | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 69.6% | home_+0.5 | 50.5% | away_-0.5 | 49.5% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.1% | away_-1.5 | 29.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 47.4% | under_20.5 | 52.6% | over_22.5 | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 64.4% | over_24.5 | 25.4% | under_24.5 | 74.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 39.4% | under_9.5 | 60.6% | over_11.5 | 23.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 76.3% | over_13.5 | 13.0% | under_13.5 | 87.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 64.1% | under_9.5 | 35.9% | over_11.5 | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 52.3% | over_13.5 | 32.9% | under_13.5 | 67.1% |
most
| home | 29.9% | draw | 5.9% | away | 64.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 15.5% | away_+3.5 | 84.5% | home_-0.5 | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.1% | home_+2.5 | 48.4% | away_-2.5 | 51.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 22.0% | no | 78.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 11.4% | no | 88.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 12.0% | no | 88.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
What we use
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Our method
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
What we don’t do
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Performance snapshot
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).
More: FC Koln predictions · Hoffenheim predictions · Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.