Elversberg vs Leverkusen: model prediction
BundesligaElversberg
Sat, 29 Aug 202614:30UK
LeverkusenLWWLD
Model’s top convictions
85%
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Draw or Leverkusen
65%
Over 2.5 goals
No bet
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model’s best bet
LeverkusenWin probability
56.6%
Top 3 convictions
Over 1.5 goals85.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.17
Draw or Leverkusen78.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Over 2.5 goals65.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.53
Model read
▾
"57% on Leverkusen is a measurement, not a promise." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Leverkusen heavy favourites at 57% when Elversberg meet Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on 29 August 2026. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 65% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 63%. Elversberg are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. The numbers do not clear our bar.
Value & higher-risk angles
High risk
Elversberg or draw43.4%@ 2.31
Over 10.5 corners37.8%@ 2.65
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners58.8%@ 1.70
Over 9.5 corners48.0%@ 2.08
Random finds
1-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.34
1-2 correct score9.6%@ 10.38
0-2 correct score7.6%@ 13.07
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
Elversberg
21.7%
Draw
21.7%
Leverkusen
56.6%
Model
Goals markets
★ StrongestOver 1.585.3%
High probability
Over 2.565.2%
Strong chance
BTTS · Yes63.3%
Strong chance
Corners markets
Over 8.558.8%
Good chance
Over 9.548.0%
Reasonable chance
Over 10.537.8%
Toss-up
Over 11.528.8%
Low chance
Most cornersElversberg 54.3% · Leverkusen 34.9%
Totals line guide
0.5·1.585.3%2.565.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.565.2%
Discipline: NO_ODDS.
Form & head-to-head
LeverkusenLWWLD
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Elversberg win4.51
Draw4.59
Leverkusen win1.78
Both teams to score1.58
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.17
Over 2.5 goals1.53
Over 3.5 goals2.31
Over 4.5 goals4.04
Elversberg most4.51
Leverkusen most1.78
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.37
Over 8.5 corners1.63
Over 9.5 corners2.04
Over 10.5 corners2.67
Elversberg most1.84
Leverkusen most2.86
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.31
Over 3.5 cards1.76
Over 4.5 cards2.69
Over 5.5 cards4.65
Elversberg most2.39
Leverkusen most2.67
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.23
Over 7.5 SoT1.40
Over 8.5 SoT1.66
Over 9.5 SoT2.06
Elversberg most1.70
Leverkusen most3.32
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.45
Over 24.5 shots1.76
Over 26.5 shots2.23
Over 28.5 shots2.99
Elversberg most1.61
Leverkusen most3.11
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls2.25
Over 22.5 fouls3.05
Over 24.5 fouls4.35
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 81.3% | Over 7.5 | 71.4% | Over 8.5 | 60.1% | Over 9.5 | 48.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Elversberg | 58.7% | Most: Leverkusen | 30.1% | ||||
| Elversberg Over 4.2 | 60.7% | Leverkusen Over 4.2 | 40.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 76.2% | Over 3.5 | 56.7% | Over 4.5 | 37.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Elversberg | 41.9% | Most: Leverkusen | 37.4% | ||
| Elversberg Over 1.8 | 61.0% | Leverkusen Over 1.8 | 57.8% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 22.2% | draw | 21.8% | away | 56.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 44.0% | 12 | 78.2% | X2 | 77.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 28.3% | away | 71.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 63.3% | no | 36.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 12.3% | away | 28.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 8.4% | away | 24.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 13.0% | home_by_2 | 6.2% | home_by_3plus | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.8% | away_by_2 | 17.0% | away_by_3plus | 17.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.0% | 0-1 | 6.8% | 0-2 | 7.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 5.3% | 0-4 | 2.8% | 0-5 | 1.2% |
| 1-0 | 3.9% | 1-1 | 9.7% | 1-2 | 9.6% |
| 1-3 | 6.7% | 1-4 | 3.5% | 1-5 | 1.5% |
| 2-0 | 2.8% | 2-1 | 5.8% | 2-2 | 6.1% |
| 2-3 | 4.2% | 2-4 | 2.2% | 2-5 | 0.9% |
| 3-0 | 1.2% | 3-1 | 2.5% | 3-2 | 2.6% |
| 3-3 | 1.8% | 3-4 | 0.9% | 3-5 | 0.4% |
| 4-0 | 0.4% | 4-1 | 0.8% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 4-4 | 0.3% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 9.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 96.1% | under_0.5 | 4.0% | over_1.5 | 85.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 14.7% | over_2.5 | 65.2% | under_2.5 | 34.8% |
| over_3.5 | 43.2% | under_3.5 | 56.8% | over_4.5 | 24.8% |
| under_4.5 | 75.2% | over_5.5 | 12.4% | under_5.5 | 87.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.0% | even | 51.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 71.7% | under_0.5 | 28.3% | over_1.5 | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.0% | over_2.5 | 13.5% | under_2.5 | 86.6% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 87.7% | under_0.5 | 12.3% | over_1.5 | 61.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 38.1% | over_2.5 | 34.9% | under_2.5 | 65.1% |
most
| home | 22.2% | draw | 21.8% | away | 56.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.0% | away_+2.5 | 97.0% | home_-1.5 | 9.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 90.8% | home_-0.5 | 22.2% | away_+0.5 | 77.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 44.0% | away_-0.5 | 56.0% | home_+1.5 | 65.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 34.3% | home_+2.5 | 82.8% | away_-2.5 | 17.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.0% | exact_1 | 10.8% | exact_2 | 20.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.0% | exact_4 | 18.4% | exact_5 | 12.4% |
| exact_6 | 6.9% | exact_7plus | 5.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 28.8% | draw | 33.6% | away | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 82.1% | under_0.5 | 17.9% | over_1.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 48.7% | over_2.5 | 24.8% | under_2.5 | 75.2% |
btts
| yes | 33.0% | no | 67.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 17.9% | exact_1 | 30.8% | exact_2 | 26.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 15.2% | exact_4plus | 9.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 29.2% | draw | 35.9% | away | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.9% | under_0.5 | 21.1% | over_1.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.0% | over_2.5 | 20.5% | under_2.5 | 79.5% |
btts
| yes | 29.1% | no | 70.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 21.0% | H/D | 5.3% | H/A | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 9.8% | D/D | 12.1% | D/A | 11.7% |
| A/H | 2.3% | A/D | 5.6% | A/A | 29.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 72.8% | under_7.5 | 27.2% | over_8.5 | 61.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 38.8% | over_9.5 | 49.1% | under_9.5 | 50.9% |
| over_10.5 | 37.5% | under_10.5 | 62.5% | over_11.5 | 27.3% |
| under_11.5 | 72.7% | over_12.5 | 18.9% | under_12.5 | 81.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.3% | under_3.5 | 26.7% | over_4.5 | 58.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.0% | over_5.5 | 42.8% | under_5.5 | 57.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.4% | under_3.5 | 39.6% | over_4.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.8% | over_5.5 | 28.5% | under_5.5 | 71.5% |
most
| home | 54.4% | draw | 10.7% | away | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.0% | away_+3.5 | 76.1% | home_-1.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.6% | home_-0.5 | 54.4% | away_+0.5 | 45.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.0% | away_-0.5 | 35.0% | home_+1.5 | 74.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.4% | home_+3.5 | 88.6% | away_-3.5 | 11.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 68.8% | under_22.5 | 31.2% | over_24.5 | 57.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 43.0% | over_26.5 | 44.8% | under_26.5 | 55.2% |
| over_28.5 | 33.4% | under_28.5 | 66.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 76.8% | under_10.5 | 23.3% | over_12.5 | 61.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 38.4% | over_14.5 | 45.5% | under_14.5 | 54.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 57.9% | under_10.5 | 42.1% | over_12.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 60.0% | over_14.5 | 25.0% | under_14.5 | 75.0% |
most
| home | 62.1% | draw | 5.7% | away | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.9% | away_+4.5 | 62.2% | home_-2.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.0% | home_-0.5 | 62.1% | away_+0.5 | 37.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.8% | away_-0.5 | 32.2% | home_+2.5 | 78.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.0% | home_+4.5 | 86.0% | away_-4.5 | 14.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 81.4% | under_6.5 | 18.7% | over_7.5 | 71.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 28.6% | over_8.5 | 60.1% | under_8.5 | 39.9% |
| over_9.5 | 48.5% | under_9.5 | 51.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.7% | under_3.5 | 24.3% | over_4.5 | 60.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 39.3% | over_5.5 | 45.3% | under_5.5 | 54.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.7% | under_3.5 | 42.3% | over_4.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.0% | over_5.5 | 25.3% | under_5.5 | 74.7% |
most
| home | 58.7% | draw | 11.2% | away | 30.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 35.4% | away_+2.5 | 64.6% | home_-0.5 | 58.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 41.3% | home_+0.5 | 69.9% | away_-0.5 | 30.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.9% | away_-2.5 | 13.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 76.2% | under_2.5 | 23.8% | over_3.5 | 56.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 43.3% | over_4.5 | 37.1% | under_4.5 | 62.9% |
| over_5.5 | 21.5% | under_5.5 | 78.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 61.0% | under_1.5 | 39.0% | over_2.5 | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 66.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 57.8% | under_1.5 | 42.2% | over_2.5 | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 69.2% |
most
| home | 41.9% | draw | 20.7% | away | 37.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 23.5% | away_+1.5 | 76.5% | home_-0.5 | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 58.1% | home_+0.5 | 62.6% | away_-0.5 | 37.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 79.9% | away_-1.5 | 20.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 44.4% | under_20.5 | 55.6% | over_22.5 | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 67.2% | over_24.5 | 23.0% | under_24.5 | 77.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 54.6% | under_9.5 | 45.4% | over_11.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 62.3% | over_13.5 | 24.0% | under_13.5 | 76.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 46.2% | under_9.5 | 53.8% | over_11.5 | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 70.3% | over_13.5 | 17.5% | under_13.5 | 82.5% |
most
| home | 52.7% | draw | 6.5% | away | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 33.6% | away_+3.5 | 66.4% | home_-0.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.3% | home_+2.5 | 71.2% | away_-2.5 | 28.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 13.8% | no | 86.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 10.0% | no | 90.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.2% | no | 95.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
What we use
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Our method
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
What we don’t do
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Performance snapshot
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).
More: Elversberg predictions · Leverkusen predictions · Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.