Primeira Liga
Estrela vs 
Sp Braga Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 57.5% and it landed (18 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 56.7% and it landed (9 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 42.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 54.7% for over 22.5 to 22.0% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.7%. Head to head on shots, Estrela are the model’s pick to have more shots at 52.9%, with a level count at 6.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 54.7% | 45.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 22.0% | 78.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
62.0%
45.1%
30.1%
53.8%
36.7%
22.8%
Shot handicap
| Estrela line | Estrela | Sp Braga |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| -0.5 | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| +0.5 | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| +2.5 | 70.6% | 29.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 32.1% | 67.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Estrela.
In-depth analysis
42.5%Over 24.5 shots45.1%Estrela over 12.5 shots36.7%Sp Braga over 12.5 shots56.7%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Estrela over 12.5 shots sits at 45.1% and Sp Braga at 36.7%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Estrela vs Sp Braga?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 42.5% for Estrela vs Sp Braga.
Which team will have more shots in Estrela vs Sp Braga?
Before kickoff, the model rated Estrela to take more shots at 52.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.