Estrela vs Sp Braga prediction & probabilities (2026-09-10)

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Estrela vs Sp Braga: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 10 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga
Estrela

DDDWD

Full time2-1Thu, 10 Sep 202620:15UK
Sp Braga

DDDWW

Model’s top convictions

79%

Over 1.5 goals

76%

Draw or Sp Braga

57%

Both teams to score

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Estrela 2-1 Sp Braga
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Sp Braga at 51.1%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 55.4% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 79.0% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 67.0% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 56.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 72.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 82.1% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 56.7% and it missed (14 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 72.6% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 57.5% and it landed (18 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 56.7% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 83.3% and it landed.

Match data Estrela Sp Braga
Goals, 1st half 1 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 9 9
Shots on target 5 4
Corners 5 9
Yellow cards 2 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 12 14

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Sp BragaWin probability
51.1%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals79.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Draw or Sp Braga75.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.32
Both teams to score56.9%Good chancePays @ 1.76

Model read

▾

"Estrela or Sp Braga? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Sp Braga go into this Primeira Liga meeting with Estrela on 10 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 51%. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Sp Braga at 56%. Caution noted. No strong lean on goals (55% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The recent series reads 0 wins for Estrela, 3 draws and 2 for Sp Braga over 5 games, 3.2 goals on average. The run in: Estrela arrive W1 D5 L0, Sp Braga W2 D4 L0. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners42.8%@ 2.34
Over 10.5 corners33.6%@ 2.98
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals55.4%@ 1.81
Over 8.5 corners52.9%@ 1.89
Estrela or draw48.8%@ 2.05
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.6%@ 8.62
1-2 correct score9.7%@ 10.33
0-1 correct score9.1%@ 10.96

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Estrela

24.2%+5.3%

Draw

24.6%-0.9%

Sp Braga

51.1%-4.5%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.0%

High probability

Over 2.555.4%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.9%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.552.9%

Good chance

Over 9.542.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.533.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.525.6%

Low chance

Most cornersEstrela44.8%Sp Braga44.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.554.7%

Good chance

Over 24.542.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.531.4%

Toss-up

Over 28.522.0%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Estrela9.5 taken13.7 faced
Sp Braga11.2 taken10.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.0%2.555.4%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.579.0%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

EstrelaDDDWD
Sp BragaDDDWW

Last 5 meetings: Estrela 0 · 3 draws · Sp Braga 2 · 3.2 goals/game.

2026-05-16Sp Braga 2-2 Estrela
2026-01-03Estrela 3-3 Sp Braga
2025-01-19Estrela 0-1 Sp Braga
2024-08-11Sp Braga 1-1 Estrela
2024-03-02Sp Braga 3-0 Estrela

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

EstrelaSp Braga
League position#9 of 18#6 of 18
Record W-D-L1-3-02-1-0
Current streakD1W2
Record, home vs away0-2-01-1-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.60 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 41%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Estrela win4.754.13
Draw3.604.07
Sp Braga win1.711.96
Over 2.5 goals2.001.81
Under 2.5 goals1.802.24

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Estrela win4.13
Draw4.06
Sp Braga win1.96
Both teams to score1.76

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.27
Over 2.5 goals1.81
Over 3.5 goals3.03
Estrela most4.13
Sp Braga most1.96

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.51
Over 8.5 corners1.83
Over 9.5 corners2.31
Over 10.5 corners3.05
Estrela most2.22
Sp Braga most2.25

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.15
Over 3.5 cards1.38
Over 4.5 cards1.82
Over 5.5 cards2.67
Estrela most2.37
Sp Braga most2.54

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.44
Over 7.5 SoT1.76
Over 8.5 SoT2.28
Over 9.5 SoT3.12
Estrela most2.58
Sp Braga most2.08

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.83
Over 24.5 shots2.35
Over 26.5 shots3.18
Over 28.5 shots4.55
Estrela most1.89
Sp Braga most2.44

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.21
Over 22.5 fouls1.38
Over 24.5 fouls1.66
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 54.6% Over 24.5 42.5% Over 26.5 31.4% Over 28.5 22.0%
Most: Estrela 52.9% Most: Sp Braga 41.0%
Estrela Over 13.2 37.3% Sp Braga Over 13.2 29.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 69.4% Over 7.5 56.7% Over 8.5 43.8% Over 9.5 32.1%
Most: Estrela 38.8% Most: Sp Braga 48.1%
Estrela Over 4.2 35.9% Sp Braga Over 4.2 42.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 86.9% Over 3.5 72.5% Over 4.5 54.9%
Most: Estrela 42.3% Most: Sp Braga 39.4%
Estrela Over 1.8 71.4% Sp Braga Over 1.8 69.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Estrela clean sheet 17.3%
Sp Braga clean sheet 31.6%
Estrela win to nil 11.2%
Sp Braga win to nil 25.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 24.2% draw 24.6% away 51.1%
double_chance
1X 48.9% 12 75.4% X2 75.8%
dnb
home 32.2% away 67.8%
btts
yes 56.9% no 43.1%
clean_sheet
home 17.3% away 31.9%
win_to_nil
home 11.3% away 25.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 14.6% home_by_2 6.7% home_by_3plus 2.9%
away_by_1 22.7% away_by_2 15.8% away_by_3plus 12.7%
correct_score
0-0 6.1% 0-1 9.1% 0-2 8.5%
0-3 5.0% 0-4 2.2% 0-5 0.8%
1-0 5.8% 1-1 11.6% 1-2 9.7%
1-3 5.7% 1-4 2.5% 1-5 0.9%
2-0 3.6% 2-1 6.3% 2-2 5.5%
2-3 3.2% 2-4 1.4% 2-5 0.5%
3-0 1.4% 3-1 2.4% 3-2 2.1%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.4% 4-1 0.7% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.9% under_0.5 6.1% over_1.5 79.0%
under_1.5 21.0% over_2.5 55.4% under_2.5 44.7%
over_3.5 33.0% under_3.5 67.0% over_4.5 16.9%
under_4.5 83.2% over_5.5 7.4% under_5.5 92.6%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 68.1% under_0.5 31.9% over_1.5 31.7%
under_1.5 68.3% over_2.5 10.9% under_2.5 89.1%
team_away
over_0.5 82.7% under_0.5 17.3% over_1.5 52.3%
under_1.5 47.7% over_2.5 25.8% under_2.5 74.2%
most
home 24.2% draw 24.6% away 51.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.9% away_+2.5 97.1% home_-1.5 9.7%
away_+1.5 90.4% home_-0.5 24.2% away_+0.5 75.8%
home_+0.5 48.9% away_-0.5 51.1% home_+1.5 71.5%
away_-1.5 28.5% home_+2.5 87.3% away_-2.5 12.7%
total_exact
exact_0 6.1% exact_1 14.9% exact_2 23.7%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 16.2% exact_5 9.4%
exact_6 4.6% exact_7plus 2.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 18.2% draw 39.1% away 42.7%
total
over_0.5 72.1% under_0.5 27.9% over_1.5 36.5%
under_1.5 63.5% over_2.5 13.8% under_2.5 86.3%
btts
yes 20.2% no 79.9%
total_exact
exact_0 27.9% exact_1 35.6% exact_2 22.7%
exact_3 9.7% exact_4plus 4.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.8% draw 33.4% away 40.8%
total
over_0.5 82.1% under_0.5 18.0% over_1.5 51.2%
under_1.5 48.8% over_2.5 24.7% under_2.5 75.3%
btts
yes 32.4% no 67.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 11.7% H/D 4.0% H/A 2.5%
D/H 10.1% D/D 13.1% D/A 16.0%
A/H 2.3% A/D 5.8% A/A 34.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 66.4% under_7.5 33.6% over_8.5 54.8%
under_8.5 45.2% over_9.5 43.3% under_9.5 56.7%
over_10.5 32.8% under_10.5 67.2% over_11.5 23.8%
under_11.5 76.2% over_12.5 16.7% under_12.5 83.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 62.3% under_3.5 37.7% over_4.5 46.6%
under_4.5 53.4% over_5.5 32.7% under_5.5 67.3%
team_away
over_3.5 62.0% under_3.5 38.0% over_4.5 46.2%
under_4.5 53.8% over_5.5 32.3% under_5.5 67.7%
most
home 45.0% draw 10.6% away 44.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.1% away_+3.5 81.9% home_-1.5 34.8%
away_+1.5 65.2% home_-0.5 45.0% away_+0.5 55.0%
home_+0.5 55.6% away_-0.5 44.5% home_+1.5 65.7%
away_-1.5 34.3% home_+3.5 82.3% away_-3.5 17.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 54.7% under_22.5 45.4% over_24.5 42.5%
under_24.5 57.5% over_26.5 31.4% under_26.5 68.6%
over_28.5 22.0% under_28.5 78.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 62.0% under_10.5 38.0% over_12.5 45.1%
under_12.5 54.9% over_14.5 30.1% under_14.5 69.9%
team_away
over_10.5 53.8% under_10.5 46.2% over_12.5 36.7%
under_12.5 63.3% over_14.5 22.8% under_14.5 77.2%
most
home 52.9% draw 6.2% away 41.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 29.0% away_+4.5 71.0% home_-2.5 40.5%
away_+2.5 59.5% home_-0.5 52.9% away_+0.5 47.1%
home_+0.5 59.0% away_-0.5 41.0% home_+2.5 70.6%
away_-2.5 29.4% home_+4.5 80.3% away_-4.5 19.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 69.4% under_6.5 30.6% over_7.5 56.7%
under_7.5 43.3% over_8.5 43.8% under_8.5 56.2%
over_9.5 32.1% under_9.5 67.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 54.0% under_3.5 46.0% over_4.5 35.9%
under_4.5 64.1% over_5.5 21.7% under_5.5 78.3%
team_away
over_3.5 60.4% under_3.5 39.6% over_4.5 42.5%
under_4.5 57.5% over_5.5 27.3% under_5.5 72.7%
most
home 38.8% draw 13.1% away 48.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 17.2% away_+2.5 82.8% home_-0.5 38.8%
away_+0.5 61.2% home_+0.5 51.9% away_-0.5 48.1%
home_+2.5 76.0% away_-2.5 24.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 86.9% under_2.5 13.1% over_3.5 72.6%
under_3.5 27.5% over_4.5 54.9% under_4.5 45.1%
over_5.5 37.4% under_5.5 62.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 71.4% under_1.5 28.6% over_2.5 45.9%
under_2.5 54.1%
team_away
over_1.5 69.6% under_1.5 30.4% over_2.5 43.8%
under_2.5 56.2%
most
home 42.3% draw 18.4% away 39.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 25.6% away_+1.5 74.4% home_-0.5 42.3%
away_+0.5 57.8% home_+0.5 60.6% away_-0.5 39.4%
home_+1.5 76.8% away_-1.5 23.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 82.7% under_20.5 17.3% over_22.5 72.4%
under_22.5 27.6% over_24.5 60.3% under_24.5 39.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 78.4% under_9.5 21.6% over_11.5 61.5%
under_11.5 38.5% over_13.5 43.4% under_13.5 56.6%
team_away
over_9.5 80.1% under_9.5 19.9% over_11.5 63.9%
under_11.5 36.1% over_13.5 45.9% under_13.5 54.1%
most
home 45.0% draw 6.5% away 48.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.0% away_+3.5 73.0% home_-0.5 45.0%
away_+0.5 55.0% home_+2.5 64.1% away_-2.5 35.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 16.7% no 83.3%
home
yes 8.0% no 92.0%
away
yes 9.5% no 90.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Estrela predictions · Sp Braga predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Primeira LigaEstrelaSp BragaTrack record