Primeira Liga
Estrela vs 
Famalicao Corners
Result
We called Under 9.5 at 52.5% and it missed (10 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 46.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 69.9% for over 7.5 to 19.8% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.5%. Between the two sides, Famalicao are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 45.5%, with a level count at 10.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 69.9% | 30.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| 9.5 corners | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 10.5 corners | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| 11.5 corners | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| 12.5 corners | 19.8% | 80.2% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
64.1%
48.7%
34.8%
65.0%
49.7%
35.7%
Corner handicap
| Estrela line | Estrela | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| -0.5 | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| +0.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| +1.5 | 64.4% | 35.6% |
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Famalicao.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Estrela over 4.5 corners sits at 48.7% and Famalicao at 49.7%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Estrela vs Famalicao?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 47.5% for Estrela vs Famalicao.
Which team will win the corner count in Estrela vs Famalicao?
Before kickoff, the model rated Famalicao to win the corner count at 45.5%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,548 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.