Estrela vs Famalicao prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Estrela vs Famalicao: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga
Estrela

DDDDW

Full time2-2Sat, 5 Sep 202615:30UK
Famalicao

WDLLD

Model’s top convictions

70%

Draw or Famalicao

69%

Over 1.5 goals

59%

Estrela or draw

Full time6 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Estrela 2-2 Famalicao
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
6 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Famalicao at 40.7%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 57.8% and it missed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 69.1% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 78.6% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 51.6% and it missed. We called Yes at 59.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 75.8% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 52.5% and it missed (10 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 72.5% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 59.5% and it missed (28 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 53.0% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 83.8% and it landed.

Match data Estrela Famalicao
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 2 1
Shots 14 14
Shots on target 4 4
Corners 5 5
Yellow cards 3 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 9

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
FamalicaoWin probability
40.7%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Famalicao69.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.43
Over 1.5 goals69.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.45
Estrela or draw59.3%Good chancePays @ 1.69

Model read

▾

The model leans Famalicao at 41% when Estrela host Famalicao in the Primeira Liga on 5 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. The market broadly agrees, pricing Famalicao at 40%. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 42% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 48%. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Estrela, 3 draws and 1 for Famalicao at 1.6 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Estrela W1 D4 L1, Famalicao W1 D3 L2. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.006 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners46.5%@ 2.15
Over 2.5 goals42.2%@ 2.37
Famalicao win40.7%@ 2.46
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals57.8%@ 1.73
Over 8.5 corners56.5%@ 1.77
Not both teams to score51.6%@ 1.94
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.7%@ 7.32
0-1 correct score11.5%@ 8.73
0-0 correct score10.0%@ 9.96

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Estrela

30.3%-0.7%

Draw

29.0%+0.1%

Famalicao

40.7%+0.6%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.006 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.569.1%

Strong chance

Over 2.542.2%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes48.4%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.556.5%

Good chance

Over 9.546.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.537.2%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.0%

Low chance

Most cornersEstrela44.1%Famalicao45.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.552.6%

Good chance

Over 24.540.5%

Toss-up

Over 26.529.6%

Low chance

Over 28.520.5%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.569.1%2.542.2%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.569.1%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

EstrelaDDDDW
FamalicaoWDLLD

Last 5 meetings: Estrela 1 · 3 draws · Famalicao 1 · 1.6 goals/game.

2026-05-11Estrela 0-0 Famalicao
2025-12-27Famalicao 2-3 Estrela
2025-01-25Famalicao 0-0 Estrela
2024-08-19Estrela 0-3 Famalicao
2024-03-16Famalicao 0-0 Estrela

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

EstrelaFamalicao
League position#8 of 18#14 of 18
Record W-D-L1-2-00-2-2
Current streakW1D1
Record, home vs away0-1-00-1-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.70 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 49% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Estrela win3.003.30
Draw3.203.45
Famalicao win2.352.46
Over 2.5 goals2.152.37
Under 2.5 goals1.671.73

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Estrela win3.30
Draw3.45
Famalicao win2.46
Both teams to score2.07

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.11
Over 1.5 goals1.45
Over 2.5 goals2.37
Over 3.5 goals4.66
Estrela most3.30
Famalicao most2.46

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.43
Over 8.5 corners1.70
Over 9.5 corners2.10
Over 10.5 corners2.71
Estrela most2.26
Famalicao most2.20

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.15
Over 3.5 cards1.38
Over 4.5 cards1.83
Over 5.5 cards2.69
Estrela most2.45
Famalicao most2.46

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.51
Over 7.5 SoT1.89
Over 8.5 SoT2.49
Over 9.5 SoT3.47
Estrela most2.26
Famalicao most2.36

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.90
Over 24.5 shots2.47
Over 26.5 shots3.38
Over 28.5 shots4.88
Estrela most1.80
Famalicao most2.61

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.09
Over 22.5 fouls1.18
Over 24.5 fouls1.33
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.1% Over 7.5 53.0% Over 8.5 40.1% Over 9.5 28.8%
Most: Estrela 44.2% Most: Famalicao 42.3%
Estrela Over 4.2 37.4% Famalicao Over 4.2 36.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 87.0% Over 3.5 72.5% Over 4.5 54.8%
Most: Estrela 40.8% Most: Famalicao 40.7%
Estrela Over 1.8 70.6% Famalicao Over 1.8 70.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Estrela clean sheet 27.5%
Famalicao clean sheet 34.0%
Estrela win to nil 17.5%
Famalicao win to nil 24.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 30.3% draw 29.0% away 40.7%
double_chance
1X 59.3% 12 71.0% X2 69.7%
dnb
home 42.6% away 57.4%
btts
yes 48.4% no 51.6%
clean_sheet
home 27.5% away 34.1%
win_to_nil
home 17.5% away 24.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.3% home_by_2 8.4% home_by_3plus 3.6%
away_by_1 22.1% away_by_2 12.1% away_by_3plus 6.6%
correct_score
0-0 10.0% 0-1 11.5% 0-2 7.8%
0-3 3.4% 0-4 1.1% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 9.4% 1-1 13.7% 1-2 8.4%
1-3 3.6% 1-4 1.2% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 5.4% 2-1 7.0% 2-2 4.5%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 2.0% 3-1 2.5% 3-2 1.6%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.5% 4-1 0.7% 4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.0% under_0.5 10.0% over_1.5 69.1%
under_1.5 30.9% over_2.5 42.2% under_2.5 57.8%
over_3.5 21.5% under_3.5 78.6% over_4.5 9.2%
under_4.5 90.8% over_5.5 3.4% under_5.5 96.6%
odd_even
odd 48.3% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 65.9% under_0.5 34.1% over_1.5 29.2%
under_1.5 70.8% over_2.5 9.5% under_2.5 90.5%
team_away
over_0.5 72.5% under_0.5 27.5% over_1.5 37.0%
under_1.5 63.0% over_2.5 14.1% under_2.5 85.9%
most
home 30.3% draw 29.0% away 40.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 3.6% away_+2.5 96.4% home_-1.5 12.0%
away_+1.5 88.0% home_-0.5 30.3% away_+0.5 69.7%
home_+0.5 59.3% away_-0.5 40.7% home_+1.5 81.3%
away_-1.5 18.7% home_+2.5 93.4% away_-2.5 6.6%
total_exact
exact_0 10.0% exact_1 20.9% exact_2 26.9%
exact_3 20.7% exact_4 12.3% exact_5 5.8%
exact_6 2.3% exact_7plus 1.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 24.3% draw 49.3% away 26.5%
total
over_0.5 59.4% under_0.5 40.6% over_1.5 22.8%
under_1.5 77.2% over_2.5 6.3% under_2.5 93.7%
btts
yes 13.1% no 86.9%
total_exact
exact_0 40.6% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 16.5%
exact_3 5.0% exact_4plus 1.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.5% draw 37.7% away 36.8%
total
over_0.5 75.8% under_0.5 24.2% over_1.5 41.4%
under_1.5 58.6% over_2.5 17.1% under_2.5 82.9%
btts
yes 25.4% no 74.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 16.6% H/D 5.2% H/A 2.5%
D/H 12.5% D/D 18.6% D/A 18.1%
A/H 1.4% A/D 4.2% A/A 20.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.9% under_7.5 30.1% over_8.5 58.8%
under_8.5 41.2% over_9.5 47.5% under_9.5 52.5%
over_10.5 36.9% under_10.5 63.1% over_11.5 27.5%
under_11.5 72.5% over_12.5 19.8% under_12.5 80.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 64.1% under_3.5 35.9% over_4.5 48.7%
under_4.5 51.3% over_5.5 34.8% under_5.5 65.3%
team_away
over_3.5 65.0% under_3.5 35.0% over_4.5 49.7%
under_4.5 50.3% over_5.5 35.7% under_5.5 64.3%
most
home 44.2% draw 10.2% away 45.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.3% away_+3.5 81.7% home_-1.5 34.4%
away_+1.5 65.6% home_-0.5 44.2% away_+0.5 55.8%
home_+0.5 54.5% away_-0.5 45.5% home_+1.5 64.4%
away_-1.5 35.6% home_+3.5 80.8% away_-3.5 19.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 52.6% under_22.5 47.4% over_24.5 40.5%
under_24.5 59.5% over_26.5 29.6% under_26.5 70.4%
over_28.5 20.5% under_28.5 79.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 62.4% under_10.5 37.6% over_12.5 45.6%
under_12.5 54.4% over_14.5 30.6% under_14.5 69.4%
team_away
over_10.5 50.3% under_10.5 49.7% over_12.5 33.4%
under_12.5 66.6% over_14.5 20.2% under_14.5 79.8%
most
home 55.6% draw 6.1% away 38.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 31.2% away_+4.5 68.8% home_-2.5 43.0%
away_+2.5 57.0% home_-0.5 55.6% away_+0.5 44.4%
home_+0.5 61.7% away_-0.5 38.3% home_+2.5 73.0%
away_-2.5 27.0% home_+4.5 82.3% away_-4.5 17.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.1% under_6.5 33.9% over_7.5 53.0%
under_7.5 47.0% over_8.5 40.1% under_8.5 59.9%
over_9.5 28.8% under_9.5 71.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 55.3% under_3.5 44.7% over_4.5 37.4%
under_4.5 62.6% over_5.5 23.0% under_5.5 77.1%
team_away
over_3.5 53.9% under_3.5 46.1% over_4.5 36.0%
under_4.5 64.0% over_5.5 21.8% under_5.5 78.2%
most
home 44.3% draw 13.4% away 42.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 20.8% away_+2.5 79.2% home_-0.5 44.3%
away_+0.5 55.8% home_+0.5 57.7% away_-0.5 42.3%
home_+2.5 80.6% away_-2.5 19.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 87.0% under_2.5 13.0% over_3.5 72.5%
under_3.5 27.5% over_4.5 54.8% under_4.5 45.2%
over_5.5 37.2% under_5.5 62.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 70.6% under_1.5 29.4% over_2.5 44.8%
under_2.5 55.2%
team_away
over_1.5 70.5% under_1.5 29.5% over_2.5 44.7%
under_2.5 55.3%
most
home 40.8% draw 18.5% away 40.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 24.3% away_+1.5 75.7% home_-0.5 40.8%
away_+0.5 59.2% home_+0.5 59.3% away_-0.5 40.7%
home_+1.5 75.8% away_-1.5 24.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 91.4% under_20.5 8.6% over_22.5 84.6%
under_22.5 15.4% over_24.5 75.5% under_24.5 24.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 88.1% under_9.5 11.9% over_11.5 75.6%
under_11.5 24.4% over_13.5 59.6% under_13.5 40.4%
team_away
over_9.5 85.3% under_9.5 14.7% over_11.5 71.2%
under_11.5 28.8% over_13.5 54.1% under_13.5 45.9%
most
home 50.8% draw 6.2% away 43.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 32.7% away_+3.5 67.4% home_-0.5 50.8%
away_+0.5 49.2% home_+2.5 68.7% away_-2.5 31.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 16.2% no 83.8%
home
yes 10.2% no 89.8%
away
yes 6.7% no 93.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Estrela predictions · Famalicao predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Primeira LigaEstrelaFamalicaoTrack record