Den Haag vs For Sittard prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Den Haag vs For Sittard: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
Den Haag

LLLLD

Full time2-3Sun, 6 Sep 202615:45UK
For Sittard

LDWLW

Model’s top convictions

83%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Draw or For Sittard

65%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Den Haag 2-3 For Sittard
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was For Sittard at 40.0%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 60.8% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 82.7% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 61.5% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 63.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 75.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 85.5% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 57.4% and it missed (2 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 66.7% and it missed (4 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 62.4% and it missed (19 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 76.7% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 90.2% and it landed.

Match data Den Haag For Sittard
Goals, 1st half 0 2
Goals, 2nd half 2 1
Shots 11 8
Shots on target 3 5
Corners 2 0
Yellow cards 0 4
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 17 16

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
For SittardWin probability
40.0%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals82.7%High probabilityPays @ 1.21
Draw or For Sittard64.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.55
Over 8.5 corners64.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.55

Model read

▾

Den Haag versus For Sittard in the Eredivisie on 6 September 2026 is finely balanced. For Sittard edge it at 40%, but the gap to the field is slim. The numbers that frame it: • Our number sits above the market's 30% for For Sittard. The gap itself is information. • Everything in the shot data points to goals, 61% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 63%. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Den Haag, 1 draws and 3 for For Sittard, averaging 2.0 goals a game. • Form guide over the last six: Den Haag W0 D1 L5, For Sittard W3 D1 L2. As a promoted side, Den Haag carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners44.9%@ 2.23
For Sittard win40.0%@ 2.50
Over 11.5 corners35.8%@ 2.79
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals60.8%@ 1.64
Den Haag or draw60.0%@ 1.67
Over 9.5 corners54.6%@ 1.83
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.2%@ 8.94
1-2 correct score8.6%@ 11.56
2-1 correct score8.1%@ 12.38

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Den Haag

35.3%-11.0%

Draw

24.7%+1.1%

For Sittard

40.0%+9.9%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.582.7%

High probability

Over 2.560.8%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes63.2%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.564.5%

Strong chance

Over 9.554.6%

Good chance

Over 10.544.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.8%

Toss-up

Most cornersDen Haag58.0%For Sittard32.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.572.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.562.4%

Strong chance

Over 26.551.3%

Good chance

Over 28.540.4%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.582.7%2.560.8%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 2.560.8%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

Den HaagLLLLD
For SittardLDWLW

Last 5 meetings: Den Haag 1 · 1 draws · For Sittard 3 · 2.0 goals/game.

2021-04-25Den Haag 0-3 For Sittard
2021-02-20For Sittard 2-0 Den Haag
2019-11-09For Sittard 1-0 Den Haag
2019-04-03For Sittard 0-0 Den Haag
2018-08-24Den Haag 3-1 For Sittard

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Den HaagFor Sittard
League position#16 of 18#6 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-32-1-1
Current streakD1W1
Record, home vs away0-0-11-1-0
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 4.03 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 82% · BTTS in 76%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Den Haag win2.052.83
Draw3.904.05
For Sittard win3.102.50
Over 2.5 goals1.441.64
Under 2.5 goals2.702.55

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Den Haag win2.83
Draw4.05
For Sittard win2.50
Both teams to score1.58

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.21
Over 2.5 goals1.64
Over 3.5 goals2.60
Over 4.5 goals4.78
Den Haag most2.83
For Sittard most2.50

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.45
Over 9.5 corners1.74
Over 10.5 corners2.18
Den Haag most1.72
For Sittard most3.09

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.81
Over 3.5 cards3.00
Over 4.5 cards5.79
Over 5.5 cards12.82
Den Haag most3.47
For Sittard most2.12

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.18
Over 7.5 SoT1.30
Over 8.5 SoT1.50
Over 9.5 SoT1.78
Den Haag most2.12
For Sittard most2.38

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.38
Over 24.5 shots1.60
Over 26.5 shots1.95
Over 28.5 shots2.48
Den Haag most1.67
For Sittard most2.87

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.77
Over 22.5 fouls2.43
Over 24.5 fouls3.64
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 85.0% Over 7.5 76.7% Over 8.5 66.9% Over 9.5 56.3%
Most: Den Haag 47.2% Most: For Sittard 41.9%
Den Haag Over 4.2 57.8% For Sittard Over 4.2 54.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 55.4% Over 3.5 33.3% Over 4.5 17.3%
Most: Den Haag 28.8% Most: For Sittard 47.2%
Den Haag Over 1.8 35.3% For Sittard Over 1.8 49.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Den Haag clean sheet 19.6%
For Sittard clean sheet 21.8%
Den Haag win to nil 14.8%
For Sittard win to nil 16.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 35.3% draw 24.7% away 40.0%
double_chance
1X 60.0% 12 75.3% X2 64.6%
dnb
home 46.9% away 53.1%
btts
yes 63.2% no 36.8%
clean_sheet
home 19.7% away 21.9%
win_to_nil
home 14.8% away 17.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.2% home_by_2 10.5% home_by_3plus 6.6%
away_by_1 19.5% away_by_2 12.1% away_by_3plus 8.4%
correct_score
0-0 4.9% 0-1 6.5% 0-2 5.7%
0-3 3.1% 0-4 1.3% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 6.0% 1-1 11.2% 1-2 8.6%
1-3 4.7% 1-4 1.9% 1-5 0.6%
2-0 5.0% 2-1 8.1% 2-2 6.6%
2-3 3.6% 2-4 1.4% 2-5 0.5%
3-0 2.5% 3-1 4.1% 3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.8% 3-4 0.7% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.6% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.2% under_0.5 4.9% over_1.5 82.7%
under_1.5 17.3% over_2.5 60.8% under_2.5 39.2%
over_3.5 38.5% under_3.5 61.5% over_4.5 20.9%
under_4.5 79.1% over_5.5 9.9% under_5.5 90.1%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 78.1% under_0.5 21.9% over_1.5 44.8%
under_1.5 55.2% over_2.5 19.6% under_2.5 80.4%
team_away
over_0.5 80.3% under_0.5 19.7% over_1.5 48.3%
under_1.5 51.7% over_2.5 22.3% under_2.5 77.7%
most
home 35.3% draw 24.7% away 40.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.6% away_+2.5 93.4% home_-1.5 17.2%
away_+1.5 82.9% home_-0.5 35.3% away_+0.5 64.7%
home_+0.5 60.0% away_-0.5 40.0% home_+1.5 79.6%
away_-1.5 20.5% home_+2.5 91.6% away_-2.5 8.4%
total_exact
exact_0 4.9% exact_1 12.5% exact_2 21.9%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 17.5% exact_5 11.0%
exact_6 5.8% exact_7plus 4.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.3% draw 38.1% away 35.6%
total
over_0.5 75.3% under_0.5 24.7% over_1.5 40.8%
under_1.5 59.2% over_2.5 16.6% under_2.5 83.4%
btts
yes 25.0% no 75.0%
total_exact
exact_0 24.7% exact_1 34.5% exact_2 24.2%
exact_3 11.3% exact_4plus 5.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.8% draw 31.5% away 31.7%
total
over_0.5 85.5% under_0.5 14.5% over_1.5 57.4%
under_1.5 42.6% over_2.5 30.4% under_2.5 69.6%
btts
yes 38.2% no 61.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.5% H/D 4.5% H/A 2.3%
D/H 14.0% D/D 12.0% D/A 12.1%
A/H 3.8% A/D 6.4% A/A 25.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.0% under_7.5 21.0% over_8.5 68.8%
under_8.5 31.2% over_9.5 57.4% under_9.5 42.6%
over_10.5 45.8% under_10.5 54.2% over_11.5 34.9%
under_11.5 65.1% over_12.5 25.5% under_12.5 74.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.5% under_3.5 21.5% over_4.5 65.2%
under_4.5 34.8% over_5.5 50.9% under_5.5 49.1%
team_away
over_3.5 62.0% under_3.5 38.1% over_4.5 45.5%
under_4.5 54.6% over_5.5 31.0% under_5.5 69.1%
most
home 58.2% draw 9.5% away 32.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.4% away_+3.5 70.6% home_-1.5 48.2%
away_+1.5 51.8% home_-0.5 58.2% away_+0.5 41.8%
home_+0.5 67.6% away_-0.5 32.4% home_+1.5 76.1%
away_-1.5 23.9% home_+3.5 88.6% away_-3.5 11.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 72.7% under_22.5 27.3% over_24.5 62.4%
under_24.5 37.6% over_26.5 51.3% under_26.5 48.7%
over_28.5 40.4% under_28.5 59.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 77.3% under_10.5 22.7% over_12.5 63.7%
under_12.5 36.3% over_14.5 49.1% under_14.5 50.9%
team_away
over_10.5 62.1% under_10.5 37.9% over_12.5 45.9%
under_12.5 54.1% over_14.5 31.4% under_14.5 68.6%
most
home 59.8% draw 5.3% away 34.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.7% away_+4.5 62.4% home_-2.5 48.7%
away_+2.5 51.3% home_-0.5 59.8% away_+0.5 40.2%
home_+0.5 65.1% away_-0.5 34.9% home_+2.5 74.9%
away_-2.5 25.2% home_+4.5 82.9% away_-4.5 17.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 85.0% under_6.5 15.0% over_7.5 76.7%
under_7.5 23.3% over_8.5 66.9% under_8.5 33.1%
over_9.5 56.3% under_9.5 43.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.8% under_3.5 27.2% over_4.5 57.8%
under_4.5 42.2% over_5.5 43.0% under_5.5 57.0%
team_away
over_3.5 69.8% under_3.5 30.2% over_4.5 54.2%
under_4.5 45.8% over_5.5 39.2% under_5.5 60.8%
most
home 47.2% draw 10.9% away 41.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.9% away_+2.5 73.1% home_-0.5 47.2%
away_+0.5 52.8% home_+0.5 58.1% away_-0.5 41.9%
home_+2.5 77.3% away_-2.5 22.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 55.4% under_2.5 44.6% over_3.5 33.3%
under_3.5 66.7% over_4.5 17.3% under_4.5 82.7%
over_5.5 7.8% under_5.5 92.2%
odd_even
odd 49.8% even 50.2%
team_home
over_1.5 35.3% under_1.5 64.7% over_2.5 13.2%
under_2.5 86.8%
team_away
over_1.5 49.3% under_1.5 50.7% over_2.5 23.5%
under_2.5 76.5%
most
home 28.8% draw 24.0% away 47.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 12.2% away_+1.5 87.8% home_-0.5 28.8%
away_+0.5 71.2% home_+0.5 52.8% away_-0.5 47.2%
home_+1.5 74.9% away_-1.5 25.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 56.4% under_20.5 43.6% over_22.5 41.1%
under_22.5 58.9% over_24.5 27.5% under_24.5 72.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 60.3% under_9.5 39.7% over_11.5 38.6%
under_11.5 61.4% over_13.5 21.1% under_13.5 78.9%
team_away
over_9.5 62.5% under_9.5 37.5% over_11.5 40.9%
under_11.5 59.1% over_13.5 22.9% under_13.5 77.1%
most
home 44.5% draw 7.8% away 47.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.4% away_+3.5 76.6% home_-0.5 44.5%
away_+0.5 55.5% home_+2.5 67.3% away_-2.5 32.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 9.8% no 90.2%
home
yes 2.4% no 97.6%
away
yes 7.6% no 92.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Den Haag predictions · For Sittard predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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EredivisieDen HaagFor SittardTrack record