AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 11 Oct 2026

Segunda División
EldenseEldenseLDWLL
Full time4-1Fri, 2 Oct 20262/1019:30UK
OviedoOviedoWDWLW

Eldense 4-1 Oviedo corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined55.9%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined44.1%

Result

Eldense4-1Oviedo
14 cornersEldense 6, Oviedo 8
Under 9.5

We called Under 9.5 at 55.9% and it missed (14 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners44.1%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Eldense.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 68.8% 31.2%
8.5 corners 56.5% 43.5%
9.5 corners 44.1% 55.9%
10.5 corners 32.7% 67.3%
11.5 corners 23.1% 76.9%
12.5 corners 15.5% 84.5%

Who wins the corner count

Eldense
56.8%
Level
10.8%
Oviedo
32.4%

Team corners lines

Eldense

Over 3.5
72.3%
Over 4.5
56.7%
Over 5.5
41.3%

Oviedo

Over 3.5
55.5%
Over 4.5
38.0%
Over 5.5
23.8%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Eldense's; Oviedo gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Eldense line Eldense Oviedo
-3.5 25.0% 75.1%
-1.5 45.5% 54.5%
-0.5 56.8% 43.2%
+0.5 67.7% 32.4%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 44.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 68.8% for over 7.5 to 15.5% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.1%. Head to head on corners, Eldense are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.8%, with a level count at 10.8%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Eldense over 4.5 corners sits at 56.7% and Oviedo at 38.0%. This season Eldense have averaged 6.6 corners won a game and Oviedo 5.0.

44.1%Over 9.5 corners
56.8%Most corners: Eldense
56.7%Eldense over 4.5 corners
38.0%Oviedo over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 44.1% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderEldense are the pick to win the corner count at 56.8%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 44.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
EldenseEldense

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

OviedoOviedo
Statistic
Eldense
Oviedo
corners won per game
6.6
5.0

corners conceded per game
3.7
4.0

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Eldense vs Oviedo?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 44.1% for Eldense vs Oviedo.
Which team will win the corner count in Eldense vs Oviedo?
Before kickoff, the model rated Eldense to win the corner count at 56.8%, with a level count at 10.8%.
How many corners do Eldense and Oviedo average this season?
Eldense have won 6.6 corners a game this season and Oviedo 5.0.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Segunda DivisiónEldense fixtures and statsOviedo fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.