Expected Goals (xG)

Recent xG created & conceded (per game)

Dortmund have created 2.02 xG and scored 1.67 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Hamburg have created 1.18 xG and scored 1.33 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

In-depth analysis

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Match outlook

The model leans Dortmund to win. See the full prediction →

Form & head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Dortmund 4 · 1 draws · Hamburg 0 · 3.0 goals/game.

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →

AI experts on this match

Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts, a transparent lab, never advice.

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