Bundesliga
Dortmund vs 
Hamburg Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 10.3% at 2-0, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Dortmund have averaged 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, Hamburg 1.6 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 61.4% for over 2.5 and 82.9% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2-0 | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
| 1-1 | 9.3% |
| 1-0 | 8.9% |
| 3-0 | 7.6% |
| 3-1 | 7.2% |
| 2-2 | 4.7% |
| 0-0 | 4.7% |
Score probability grid
| Dortmund \ Hamburg | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 9% | 9% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
Rows = Dortmund goals, columns = Hamburg. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10.3%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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2
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5+
In-depth analysis
For the goal environment, the model sees 61.4% for three or more goals and 82.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Dortmund favoured at 71.6%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Dortmund 4 · 1 draws · Hamburg 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Dortmund vs Hamburg?
The model's most likely scoreline for Dortmund vs Hamburg is 2-0 at 10.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
AI experts on this match
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| sot_specialist v1.0 | sot_over_6.5 |
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.