Segunda División
Cadiz vs 
Las Palmas Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 13.4% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Cadiz have averaged 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded, Las Palmas 1.6 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 44.9% for over 2.5 and 71.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-1 | 10.9% |
| 0-0 | 9.1% |
| 1-0 | 8.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% |
| 0-2 | 7.8% |
| 2-1 | 7.1% |
| 2-0 | 5.2% |
Score probability grid
| Cadiz \ Las Palmas | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 9% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Cadiz goals, columns = Las Palmas. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.4%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
50.5%Both Teams to Score44.9%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 44.9% for three or more goals and 71.3% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Las Palmas favoured at 41.9%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Cadiz 3 · 0 draws · Las Palmas 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Cadiz vs Las Palmas?
The model's most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Las Palmas is 1-1 at 13.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Segunda División, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.