Primeira Liga
Casa Pia vs 
Moreirense Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 70.6% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 89.8% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 70.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 85.7% for over 2.5 to 34.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.4%. Between the two sides, Moreirense are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.7%, with a level count at 18.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 85.7% | 14.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 34.9% | 65.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
68.5%
42.2%
69.8%
43.8%
Card handicap
| Casa Pia line | Casa Pia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23.1% | 76.9% |
| -0.5 | 39.6% | 60.5% |
| +0.5 | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| +1.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 89.5% | 10.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 81.8% | 18.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 71.7% | 28.3% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Casa Pia vs Moreirense. The model leans toward Moreirense for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
70.6%Over 3.5 cards10.2%Any red card68.5%Casa Pia over 1.5 cards69.8%Moreirense over 1.5 cards81.8%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Casa Pia over 1.5 cards sits at 68.5% and Moreirense at 69.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.2% (Casa Pia 5.8%, Moreirense 4.7%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 70.6% for Casa Pia vs Moreirense.
Will there be a red card in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Before kickoff, the model rated Moreirense to pick up more cards at 41.7%, with a level count at 18.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.