Primeira Liga
Casa Pia vs 
Moreirense Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 61.6% and it landed (20 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 52.0% and it missed (7 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 38.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 50.5% for over 22.5 to 18.9% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.5%. Head to head on shots, Casa Pia are the model’s pick to have more shots at 55.6%, with a level count at 6.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 38.4% | 61.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 18.9% | 81.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
61.0%
44.1%
29.2%
48.8%
31.9%
19.0%
Shot handicap
| Casa Pia line | Casa Pia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| -2.5 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| -0.5 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| +0.5 | 61.8% | 38.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 27.9% | 72.1% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Casa Pia.
In-depth analysis
38.4%Over 24.5 shots44.1%Casa Pia over 12.5 shots31.9%Moreirense over 12.5 shots52.0%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Casa Pia over 12.5 shots sits at 44.1% and Moreirense at 31.9%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 38.4% for Casa Pia vs Moreirense.
Which team will have more shots in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Before kickoff, the model rated Casa Pia to take more shots at 55.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,984 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Shots actually happened 39.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.