Serie A
Cagliari vs 
Juventus Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 45.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.3% for over 7.5 to 19.5% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.6%. Between the two sides, Cagliari are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 48.9%, with a level count at 10.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 9.5 corners | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| 10.5 corners | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| 11.5 corners | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| 12.5 corners | 19.5% | 80.5% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
65.3%
50.6%
37.1%
59.9%
44.6%
31.3%
Corner handicap
| Cagliari line | Cagliari | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| -0.5 | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| +0.5 | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| +1.5 | 68.6% | 31.4% |
This season (2026/27)
4.0Cagliari corners won per game6.6Cagliari corners conceded per game8.6Juventus corners won per game2.8Juventus corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Cagliari.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
45.6%Over 9.5 corners50.6%Cagliari over 4.5 corners44.6%Juventus over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Cagliari over 4.5 corners sits at 50.6% and Juventus at 44.6%. This season Cagliari have averaged 4.0 corners won a game and Juventus 8.6.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Cagliari vs Juventus?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 45.6% for Cagliari vs Juventus.
Which team will win the corner count in Cagliari vs Juventus?
The model rates Cagliari to win the corner count at 48.9%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How many corners do Cagliari and Juventus average this season?
Cagliari have won 4.0 corners a game this season and Juventus 8.6.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,686 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Serie A, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
