Serie A
Como vs 
Roma Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 38.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 60.9% for over 7.5 to 14.7% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.4%. On the corner count, Como are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.0%, with a level count at 10.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 60.9% | 39.2% |
| 8.5 corners | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| 9.5 corners | 38.6% | 61.4% |
| 10.5 corners | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| 11.5 corners | 21.0% | 79.0% |
| 12.5 corners | 14.7% | 85.3% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
65.7%
51.0%
37.5%
49.7%
34.1%
22.0%
Corner handicap
| Como line | Como | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 25.9% | 74.1% |
| -1.5 | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| -0.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| +0.5 | 66.4% | 33.6% |
This season (2026/27)
6.3Roma corners won per game1.8Roma corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Como.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
38.6%Over 9.5 corners51.0%Como over 4.5 corners34.1%Roma over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Como over 4.5 corners sits at 51.0% and Roma at 34.1%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Como vs Roma?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 38.6% for Como vs Roma.
Which team will win the corner count in Como vs Roma?
The model rates Como to win the corner count at 56.0%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 3,416 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Corners actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Serie A, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
