Süper Lig
Buyuksehyr vs 
Kasimpasa Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 67.2% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 76.6% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 67.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 83.6% for over 2.5 to 31.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.4%. On the card count, Kasimpasa are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.2%, with a level count at 18.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.6% | 16.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 31.2% | 68.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
61.6%
34.5%
71.4%
45.7%
Card handicap
| Buyuksehyr line | Buyuksehyr | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.7% | 82.3% |
| -0.5 | 32.9% | 67.1% |
| +0.5 | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| +1.5 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 88.6% | 11.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 79.3% | 20.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 66.9% | 33.1% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Buyuksehyr vs Kasimpasa. The model leans toward Kasimpasa for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
67.2%Over 3.5 cards23.4%Any red card61.6%Buyuksehyr over 1.5 cards71.4%Kasimpasa over 1.5 cards79.3%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Buyuksehyr over 1.5 cards sits at 61.6% and Kasimpasa at 71.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.4% (Buyuksehyr 5.0%, Kasimpasa 19.4%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Buyuksehyr vs Kasimpasa?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 67.2% for Buyuksehyr vs Kasimpasa.
Will there be a red card in Buyuksehyr vs Kasimpasa?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 23.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Buyuksehyr vs Kasimpasa?
Before kickoff, the model rated Kasimpasa to pick up more cards at 48.2%, with a level count at 18.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.