Buyuksehyr vs Kasimpasa: model prediction
Süper LigBuyuksehyr or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time9 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Buyuksehyr at 58.0%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 52.7% and it missed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.1% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 69.6% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 51.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 76.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 75.9% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 57.1% and it landed (8 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 67.2% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 50.4% and it landed (24 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 59.6% and it missed (5 shots on target). We called No at 76.6% and it landed.
| Match data | Buyuksehyr | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 1 | 0 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 0 | 1 |
| Shots | 12 | 12 |
| Shots on target | 2 | 3 |
| Corners | 5 | 3 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 11 | 13 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Buyuksehyr at 58% against Kasimpasa, Süper Lig, 30 August 2026. Bookmakers see it the same way, 59% on Buyuksehyr, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. No strong lean on goals (53% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Form guide over the last six: Buyuksehyr W4 D0 L2, Kasimpasa W2 D2 L2. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 4 wins for Buyuksehyr, 1 draws and 0 for Kasimpasa, averaging 4.4 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.015 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
58.0%-1.1%
23.6%-0.4%
18.4%+1.5%
value_gap +0.015 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Buyuksehyr 4 · 1 draws · Kasimpasa 0 · 4.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Buyuksehyr
KasimpasaBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 71.7% | Over 7.5 | 59.5% | Over 8.5 | 47.1% | Over 9.5 | 35.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Buyuksehyr | 61.7% | Most: Kasimpasa | 26.7% | ||||
| Buyuksehyr Over 4.2 | 53.9% | Kasimpasa Over 4.2 | 28.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 83.6% | Over 3.5 | 67.2% | Over 4.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Buyuksehyr | 32.9% | Most: Kasimpasa | 48.2% | ||
| Buyuksehyr Over 1.8 | 61.6% | Kasimpasa Over 1.8 | 71.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Buyuksehyr clean sheet | 38.6% |
|---|---|
| Kasimpasa clean sheet | 15.9% |
| Buyuksehyr win to nil | 31.9% |
| Kasimpasa win to nil | 9.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 58.0% | draw | 23.6% | away | 18.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 81.6% | 12 | 76.4% | X2 | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 75.9% | away | 24.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 51.8% | no | 48.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 39.0% | away | 15.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 32.3% | away | 9.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.0% | home_by_2 | 18.0% | home_by_3plus | 16.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 12.0% | away_by_2 | 4.7% | away_by_3plus | 1.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.7% | 0-1 | 5.3% | 0-2 | 2.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.9% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | 1-1 | 11.3% | 1-2 | 5.0% |
| 1-3 | 1.6% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.5% | 2-1 | 9.9% | 2-2 | 4.6% |
| 2-3 | 1.5% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 6.4% | 3-1 | 6.1% | 3-2 | 2.9% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 3.0% | 4-1 | 2.8% | 4-2 | 1.3% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.1% | 5-1 | 1.0% | 5-2 | 0.5% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.3% | under_0.5 | 6.7% | over_1.5 | 77.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 22.9% | over_2.5 | 52.7% | under_2.5 | 47.3% |
| over_3.5 | 30.5% | under_3.5 | 69.6% | over_4.5 | 15.0% |
| under_4.5 | 85.0% | over_5.5 | 6.4% | under_5.5 | 93.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 84.1% | under_0.5 | 15.9% | over_1.5 | 55.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 45.0% | over_2.5 | 28.1% | under_2.5 | 71.9% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 61.0% | under_0.5 | 39.0% | over_1.5 | 24.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 75.8% | over_2.5 | 7.0% | under_2.5 | 93.0% |
most
| home | 58.0% | draw | 23.6% | away | 18.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 16.0% | away_+2.5 | 84.0% | home_-1.5 | 34.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 66.0% | home_-0.5 | 58.0% | away_+0.5 | 42.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 81.6% | away_-0.5 | 18.4% | home_+1.5 | 93.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 6.4% | home_+2.5 | 98.4% | away_-2.5 | 1.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.7% | exact_1 | 16.1% | exact_2 | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 15.5% | exact_5 | 8.6% |
| exact_6 | 4.0% | exact_7plus | 2.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 54.0% | draw | 33.6% | away | 12.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.7% | under_0.5 | 23.3% | over_1.5 | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.3% | over_2.5 | 18.0% | under_2.5 | 82.0% |
btts
| yes | 20.4% | no | 79.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 23.3% | exact_1 | 34.0% | exact_2 | 24.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 12.0% | exact_4plus | 6.0% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.9% | draw | 37.3% | away | 22.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.9% | under_0.5 | 24.2% | over_1.5 | 41.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.5% | over_2.5 | 17.2% | under_2.5 | 82.9% |
btts
| yes | 24.8% | no | 75.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 46.1% | H/D | 6.1% | H/A | 1.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.4% | D/D | 12.6% | D/A | 7.6% |
| A/H | 1.5% | A/D | 2.9% | A/A | 8.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 67.5% | under_7.5 | 32.5% | over_8.5 | 55.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 44.8% | over_9.5 | 42.9% | under_9.5 | 57.1% |
| over_10.5 | 31.6% | under_10.5 | 68.4% | over_11.5 | 22.2% |
| under_11.5 | 77.8% | over_12.5 | 14.9% | under_12.5 | 85.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.4% | under_3.5 | 29.6% | over_4.5 | 54.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 45.4% | over_5.5 | 39.5% | under_5.5 | 60.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 55.5% | under_3.5 | 44.5% | over_4.5 | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 61.7% | over_5.5 | 24.3% | under_5.5 | 75.7% |
most
| home | 55.2% | draw | 10.8% | away | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.0% | away_+3.5 | 76.0% | home_-1.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.0% | home_-0.5 | 55.2% | away_+0.5 | 44.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.1% | away_-0.5 | 33.9% | home_+1.5 | 75.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.3% | home_+3.5 | 89.5% | away_-3.5 | 10.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 61.9% | under_22.5 | 38.1% | over_24.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.4% | over_26.5 | 37.7% | under_26.5 | 62.3% |
| over_28.5 | 27.1% | under_28.5 | 72.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.3% | under_10.5 | 25.7% | over_12.5 | 58.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.2% | over_14.5 | 42.9% | under_14.5 | 57.1% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 49.7% | under_10.5 | 50.3% | over_12.5 | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.7% | over_14.5 | 19.0% | under_14.5 | 81.1% |
most
| home | 65.4% | draw | 5.6% | away | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 41.0% | away_+4.5 | 59.0% | home_-2.5 | 53.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 46.6% | home_-0.5 | 65.4% | away_+0.5 | 34.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.0% | away_-0.5 | 29.0% | home_+2.5 | 80.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.3% | home_+4.5 | 88.1% | away_-4.5 | 11.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 71.7% | under_6.5 | 28.3% | over_7.5 | 59.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 40.5% | over_8.5 | 47.1% | under_8.5 | 52.9% |
| over_9.5 | 35.5% | under_9.5 | 64.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.1% | under_3.5 | 29.9% | over_4.5 | 53.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.1% | over_5.5 | 38.3% | under_5.5 | 61.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 45.6% | under_3.5 | 54.4% | over_4.5 | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 71.6% | over_5.5 | 16.0% | under_5.5 | 84.0% |
most
| home | 61.7% | draw | 11.6% | away | 26.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 36.6% | away_+2.5 | 63.4% | home_-0.5 | 61.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 38.3% | home_+0.5 | 73.3% | away_-0.5 | 26.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 89.7% | away_-2.5 | 10.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 83.6% | under_2.5 | 16.4% | over_3.5 | 67.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 32.8% | over_4.5 | 48.4% | under_4.5 | 51.6% |
| over_5.5 | 31.2% | under_5.5 | 68.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 61.6% | under_1.5 | 38.4% | over_2.5 | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 71.4% | under_1.5 | 28.6% | over_2.5 | 45.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 54.3% |
most
| home | 32.9% | draw | 18.9% | away | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.7% | away_+1.5 | 82.3% | home_-0.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.1% | home_+0.5 | 51.8% | away_-0.5 | 48.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.1% | away_-1.5 | 29.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 88.6% | under_20.5 | 11.4% | over_22.5 | 79.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 20.7% | over_24.5 | 66.9% | under_24.5 | 33.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 82.9% | under_9.5 | 17.1% | over_11.5 | 65.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 34.7% | over_13.5 | 44.8% | under_13.5 | 55.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 86.9% | under_9.5 | 13.1% | over_11.5 | 71.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 28.5% | over_13.5 | 52.0% | under_13.5 | 48.0% |
most
| home | 41.4% | draw | 7.2% | away | 51.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.3% | away_+3.5 | 77.7% | home_-0.5 | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 58.6% | home_+2.5 | 62.8% | away_-2.5 | 37.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 23.4% | no | 76.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.0% | no | 95.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 19.4% | no | 80.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Buyuksehyr predictions · Kasimpasa predictions · Süper Lig
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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