Eyupspor vs Alanyaspor: model prediction
Süper LigOver 1.5 goals
Eyupspor or draw
Draw or Alanyaspor
Full time7 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Eyupspor at 36.3%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 59.2% and it missed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 67.9% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 79.6% and it landed (3 goals). We called No at 52.3% and it missed. We called Yes at 58.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 75.1% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 59.2% and it landed (3 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 64.1% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 51.2% and it landed (18 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 56.9% and it missed (6 shots on target). We called No at 87.6% and it missed.
| Match data | Eyupspor | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 1 | 1 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 1 | 0 |
| Shots | 11 | 7 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 2 |
| Corners | 1 | 2 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 1 |
| Red cards | 1 | 0 |
| Fouls | 16 | 22 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"When model and market disagree on Eyupspor, that gap is the story." Expect a tight one: the model splits Eyupspor and Alanyaspor almost evenly, Eyupspor marginally on top at 36%. Our number sits above the market's 29% for Eyupspor. The gap itself is information. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 41% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 48%. History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 3 wins for Eyupspor, 1 draws and 0 for Alanyaspor at 3.0 goals per match. The run in: Eyupspor arrive W2 D2 L2, Alanyaspor W2 D2 L2. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.29)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
36.3%+7.3%
29.6%+1.5%
34.1%-8.9%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.29)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Eyupspor 3 · 1 draws · Alanyaspor 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Eyupspor
AlanyasporBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 69.4% | Over 7.5 | 56.8% | Over 8.5 | 44.3% | Over 9.5 | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Eyupspor | 53.1% | Most: Alanyaspor | 34.3% | ||||
| Eyupspor Over 4.2 | 46.2% | Alanyaspor Over 4.2 | 32.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 81.5% | Over 3.5 | 64.1% | Over 4.5 | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Eyupspor | 36.5% | Most: Alanyaspor | 43.9% | ||
| Eyupspor Over 1.8 | 62.0% | Alanyaspor Over 1.8 | 66.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Eyupspor clean sheet | 32.1% |
|---|---|
| Alanyaspor clean sheet | 30.7% |
| Eyupspor win to nil | 21.5% |
| Alanyaspor win to nil | 20.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 36.3% | draw | 29.6% | away | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 65.9% | 12 | 70.4% | X2 | 63.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 51.5% | away | 48.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 47.7% | no | 52.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 32.1% | away | 30.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 21.6% | away | 20.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.7% | home_by_2 | 10.5% | home_by_3plus | 5.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.9% | away_by_2 | 9.7% | away_by_3plus | 4.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 10.5% | 0-1 | 10.6% | 0-2 | 6.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.4% | 0-4 | 0.7% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | 1-1 | 13.9% | 1-2 | 7.5% |
| 1-3 | 2.8% | 1-4 | 0.8% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 6.9% | 2-1 | 7.8% | 2-2 | 4.4% |
| 2-3 | 1.7% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 2.7% | 3-1 | 3.1% | 3-2 | 1.7% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 4-1 | 0.9% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 89.5% | under_0.5 | 10.5% | over_1.5 | 67.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 32.1% | over_2.5 | 40.8% | under_2.5 | 59.2% |
| over_3.5 | 20.4% | under_3.5 | 79.6% | over_4.5 | 8.6% |
| under_4.5 | 91.4% | over_5.5 | 3.1% | under_5.5 | 96.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.2% | even | 51.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 69.3% | under_0.5 | 30.8% | over_1.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.0% | over_2.5 | 11.6% | under_2.5 | 88.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 67.9% | under_0.5 | 32.1% | over_1.5 | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.6% | over_2.5 | 10.7% | under_2.5 | 89.3% |
most
| home | 36.3% | draw | 29.6% | away | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 5.1% | away_+2.5 | 94.9% | home_-1.5 | 15.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 84.5% | home_-0.5 | 36.3% | away_+0.5 | 63.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.9% | away_-0.5 | 34.1% | home_+1.5 | 85.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 14.2% | home_+2.5 | 95.5% | away_-2.5 | 4.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 10.5% | exact_1 | 21.5% | exact_2 | 27.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.4% | exact_4 | 11.8% | exact_5 | 5.5% |
| exact_6 | 2.1% | exact_7plus | 1.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.6% | draw | 50.0% | away | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 58.5% | under_0.5 | 41.6% | over_1.5 | 22.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 78.0% | over_2.5 | 5.9% | under_2.5 | 94.1% |
btts
| yes | 12.6% | no | 87.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 41.6% | exact_1 | 36.5% | exact_2 | 16.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 4.7% | exact_4plus | 1.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.7% | draw | 38.4% | away | 29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.1% | under_0.5 | 24.9% | over_1.5 | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.5% | over_2.5 | 16.5% | under_2.5 | 83.6% |
btts
| yes | 25.1% | no | 74.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 19.1% | H/D | 4.7% | H/A | 1.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.8% | D/D | 19.2% | D/A | 14.9% |
| A/H | 1.9% | A/D | 4.7% | A/A | 17.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 65.6% | under_7.5 | 34.4% | over_8.5 | 53.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 46.9% | over_9.5 | 40.8% | under_9.5 | 59.2% |
| over_10.5 | 29.7% | under_10.5 | 70.3% | over_11.5 | 20.6% |
| under_11.5 | 79.4% | over_12.5 | 13.6% | under_12.5 | 86.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 64.5% | under_3.5 | 35.5% | over_4.5 | 47.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.2% | over_5.5 | 32.8% | under_5.5 | 67.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.9% | under_3.5 | 40.1% | over_4.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.2% | over_5.5 | 28.2% | under_5.5 | 71.8% |
most
| home | 47.6% | draw | 11.3% | away | 41.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 18.2% | away_+3.5 | 81.8% | home_-1.5 | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 63.5% | home_-0.5 | 47.6% | away_+0.5 | 52.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 58.9% | away_-0.5 | 41.1% | home_+1.5 | 69.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 30.5% | home_+3.5 | 85.9% | away_-3.5 | 14.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 61.1% | under_22.5 | 39.0% | over_24.5 | 48.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 51.2% | over_26.5 | 37.0% | under_26.5 | 63.0% |
| over_28.5 | 26.6% | under_28.5 | 73.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 69.0% | under_10.5 | 31.0% | over_12.5 | 52.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 47.5% | over_14.5 | 36.6% | under_14.5 | 63.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 55.6% | under_10.5 | 44.4% | over_12.5 | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 62.0% | over_14.5 | 23.6% | under_14.5 | 76.4% |
most
| home | 57.1% | draw | 6.0% | away | 36.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 32.8% | away_+4.5 | 67.2% | home_-2.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 55.3% | home_-0.5 | 57.1% | away_+0.5 | 42.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.1% | away_-0.5 | 36.9% | home_+2.5 | 74.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 25.9% | home_+4.5 | 83.1% | away_-4.5 | 16.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 69.4% | under_6.5 | 30.6% | over_7.5 | 56.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 43.2% | over_8.5 | 44.3% | under_8.5 | 55.7% |
| over_9.5 | 32.8% | under_9.5 | 67.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 63.4% | under_3.5 | 36.6% | over_4.5 | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.8% | over_5.5 | 31.0% | under_5.5 | 69.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 50.3% | under_3.5 | 49.7% | over_4.5 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 67.3% | over_5.5 | 19.4% | under_5.5 | 80.6% |
most
| home | 53.1% | draw | 12.6% | away | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 28.5% | away_+2.5 | 71.5% | home_-0.5 | 53.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.9% | home_+0.5 | 65.7% | away_-0.5 | 34.3% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.4% | away_-2.5 | 14.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 81.5% | under_2.5 | 18.5% | over_3.5 | 64.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 35.9% | over_4.5 | 44.9% | under_4.5 | 55.1% |
| over_5.5 | 28.0% | under_5.5 | 72.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 62.1% | under_1.5 | 38.0% | over_2.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.9% | under_1.5 | 33.1% | over_2.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.6% |
most
| home | 36.5% | draw | 19.6% | away | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.1% | away_+1.5 | 79.9% | home_-0.5 | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.5% | home_+0.5 | 56.1% | away_-0.5 | 43.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.1% | away_-1.5 | 25.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 87.2% | under_20.5 | 12.8% | over_22.5 | 77.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 22.9% | over_24.5 | 64.2% | under_24.5 | 35.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 82.7% | under_9.5 | 17.3% | over_11.5 | 65.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 35.0% | over_13.5 | 44.5% | under_13.5 | 55.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 84.9% | under_9.5 | 15.2% | over_11.5 | 68.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 31.8% | over_13.5 | 48.2% | under_13.5 | 51.8% |
most
| home | 43.8% | draw | 7.3% | away | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.1% | away_+3.5 | 75.9% | home_-0.5 | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 56.2% | home_+2.5 | 65.3% | away_-2.5 | 34.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 12.4% | no | 87.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.5% | no | 92.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.3% | no | 94.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Eyupspor predictions · Alanyaspor predictions · Süper Lig
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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