Süper Lig
Eyupspor vs 
Rizespor Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 59.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 78.4% for over 2.5 to 23.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 59.6%. On the card count, Rizespor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.7%, with a level count at 20.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 78.4% | 21.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 23.9% | 76.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
58.1%
31.0%
64.6%
37.8%
Card handicap
| Eyupspor line | Eyupspor | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.7% | 81.3% |
| -0.5 | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| +0.5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| +1.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 87.6% | 12.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 77.7% | 22.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 64.9% | 35.1% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Eyupspor vs Rizespor. The model leans toward Rizespor for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
59.6%Over 3.5 cards14.5%Any red card58.1%Eyupspor over 1.5 cards64.6%Rizespor over 1.5 cards77.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Eyupspor over 1.5 cards sits at 58.1% and Rizespor at 64.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.5% (Eyupspor 7.3%, Rizespor 7.8%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Eyupspor vs Rizespor?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 59.6% for Eyupspor vs Rizespor.
Will there be a red card in Eyupspor vs Rizespor?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Eyupspor vs Rizespor?
The model rates Rizespor to pick up more cards at 44.7%, with a level count at 20.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.