Süper Lig
Konyaspor vs 
Trabzonspor Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 66.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 83.2% for over 2.5 to 30.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.8%. On the card count, Konyaspor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.9%, with a level count at 19.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.2% | 16.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 30.6% | 69.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
69.2%
43.1%
63.4%
36.4%
Card handicap
| Konyaspor line | Konyaspor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27.1% | 73.0% |
| -0.5 | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| +0.5 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| +1.5 | 80.1% | 19.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 82.5% | 17.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 56.3% | 43.7% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor. It tips Konyaspor for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
66.7%Over 3.5 cards16.6%Any red card69.2%Konyaspor over 1.5 cards63.4%Trabzonspor over 1.5 cards70.6%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Konyaspor over 1.5 cards sits at 69.2% and Trabzonspor at 63.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.6% (Konyaspor 11.9%, Trabzonspor 5.3%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 66.7% for Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor.
Will there be a red card in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
The model rates a red card for either side at 16.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
The model rates Konyaspor to pick up more cards at 44.9%, with a level count at 19.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.