Championship
Burnley vs Middlesbrough Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 51.5% and it missed (21 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 56.4% and it missed (5 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 51.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 64.0% for over 22.5 to 28.4% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.5%. On the shot count, Burnley are the model’s pick to have more shots at 55.1%, with a level count at 6.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.4% | 60.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.4% | 71.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
70.0%
53.1%
36.7%
59.4%
41.4%
26.0%
Shot handicap
| Burnley line | Burnley | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 30.6% | 69.4% |
| -2.5 | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| -0.5 | 55.1% | 45.0% |
| +0.5 | 61.2% | 38.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 69.0% | 31.0% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 32.1% | 67.9% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Burnley.
In-depth analysis
51.5%Over 24.5 shots53.1%Burnley over 12.5 shots41.4%Middlesbrough over 12.5 shots56.4%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Burnley over 12.5 shots sits at 53.1% and Middlesbrough at 41.4%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 51.5% for Burnley vs Middlesbrough.
Which team will have more shots in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Before kickoff, the model rated Burnley to take more shots at 55.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.