Burnley vs Middlesbrough: model prediction
ChampionshipDraw or Middlesbrough
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time6 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Middlesbrough at 52.6%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 50.8% and it missed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 75.9% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 71.2% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 52.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 75.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 74.7% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 57.4% and it missed (6 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 50.5% and it missed (4 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 51.5% and it missed (21 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 56.4% and it missed (5 shots on target). We called No at 85.8% and it landed.
| Match data | Burnley | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 0 | 1 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 1 | 0 |
| Shots | 11 | 10 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 2 |
| Corners | 5 | 1 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 11 | 8 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Few Championship fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Middlesbrough carry a 53% win probability against Burnley on 2 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Our number sits above the market's 40% for Middlesbrough. The gap itself is information. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 51% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. 3) On the availability front, Burnley have Josh Cullen, Zeki Amdouni, Connor Roberts, Axel Tuanzebe, Mike Tresor, Hannibal Mejbri, Jordan Beyer ruled out. Burnley are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. For shots markets, Zian Flemming is the obvious watch at 1.1 on target per 90 in recent data. The recent series reads 2 wins for Burnley, 3 draws and 0 for Middlesbrough over 5 games, 2.2 goals on average. Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Burnley against W4 D1 L1 for Middlesbrough. Discipline says sit it out: trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
22.1%-10.7%
25.3%-1.6%
52.6%+12.3%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Burnley 2 · 3 draws · Middlesbrough 0 · 2.2 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
BurnleyMiddlesbroughLeague averages this season: 3.03 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 78%. Full league tables & stats →
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 3.17
@ 1.95
@ 1.87
@ 5.13
@ 2.15
@ 2.29
@ 15.15
@ 4.13
@ 5.32
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
- Josh Cullen, Zeki Amdouni, Connor Roberts, Axel Tuanzebe, Mike Tresor, Hannibal Mejbri, Jordan BeyerBurnleyOut
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 69.0% | Over 7.5 | 56.4% | Over 8.5 | 43.7% | Over 9.5 | 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Burnley | 49.6% | Most: Middlesbrough | 37.4% | ||||
| Burnley Over 4.2 | 43.5% | Middlesbrough Over 4.2 | 34.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 70.6% | Over 3.5 | 49.5% | Over 4.5 | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Burnley | 36.4% | Most: Middlesbrough | 41.9% | ||
| Burnley Over 1.8 | 52.4% | Middlesbrough Over 1.8 | 56.4% |
Burnley: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zian Flemming | 2.61 | 1.05 | 0.55 | 51.4% | 53.6% | 31.5% |
| Jaidon Anthony | 1.78 | 0.75 | 0.26 | 46.5% | 43.7% | 19.5% |
| Loum Tchaouna | 1.63 | 0.57 | 0.14 | 24.2% | 18.8% | 6.6% |
| Armando Broja | 1.75 | 0.55 | 0.11 | 18.9% | 14.4% | 4.1% |
| Marcus Edwards | 1.96 | 0.43 | 0.09 | 19.7% | 26.4% | 4.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Burnley clean sheet | 18.4% |
|---|---|
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 35.9% |
| Burnley win to nil | 11.2% |
| Middlesbrough win to nil | 28.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 22.1% | draw | 25.3% | away | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 47.4% | 12 | 74.8% | X2 | 77.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 29.6% | away | 70.4% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.6% | no | 47.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 18.4% | away | 36.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 11.2% | away | 28.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 14.0% | home_by_2 | 5.9% | home_by_3plus | 2.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 23.6% | away_by_2 | 16.3% | away_by_3plus | 12.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.2% | 0-1 | 10.7% | 0-2 | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 5.4% | 0-4 | 2.3% | 0-5 | 0.8% |
| 1-0 | 6.2% | 1-1 | 12.0% | 1-2 | 9.7% |
| 1-3 | 5.5% | 1-4 | 2.3% | 1-5 | 0.8% |
| 2-0 | 3.4% | 2-1 | 5.8% | 2-2 | 4.9% |
| 2-3 | 2.8% | 2-4 | 1.2% | 2-5 | 0.4% |
| 3-0 | 1.2% | 3-1 | 2.0% | 3-2 | 1.7% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.3% | 4-1 | 0.5% | 4-2 | 0.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.1% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.9% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.8% | under_0.5 | 7.2% | over_1.5 | 75.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 24.1% | over_2.5 | 50.8% | under_2.5 | 49.2% |
| over_3.5 | 28.8% | under_3.5 | 71.2% | over_4.5 | 13.8% |
| under_4.5 | 86.2% | over_5.5 | 5.7% | under_5.5 | 94.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 63.8% | under_0.5 | 36.2% | over_1.5 | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.0% | over_2.5 | 8.3% | under_2.5 | 91.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 81.6% | under_0.5 | 18.4% | over_1.5 | 50.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.6% | over_2.5 | 24.1% | under_2.5 | 75.9% |
most
| home | 22.1% | draw | 25.3% | away | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 2.3% | away_+2.5 | 97.7% | home_-1.5 | 8.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 91.8% | home_-0.5 | 22.1% | away_+0.5 | 77.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 47.4% | away_-0.5 | 52.6% | home_+1.5 | 71.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 29.0% | home_+2.5 | 87.3% | away_-2.5 | 12.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.2% | exact_1 | 16.9% | exact_2 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 14.9% | exact_5 | 8.1% |
| exact_6 | 3.7% | exact_7plus | 2.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 28.2% | draw | 38.0% | away | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.6% | under_0.5 | 24.4% | over_1.5 | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.8% | over_2.5 | 16.9% | under_2.5 | 83.1% |
btts
| yes | 25.5% | no | 74.5% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 24.4% | exact_1 | 34.4% | exact_2 | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 11.4% | exact_4plus | 5.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.0% | draw | 38.8% | away | 30.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.7% | under_0.5 | 25.3% | over_1.5 | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.1% | over_2.5 | 16.0% | under_2.5 | 84.0% |
btts
| yes | 24.7% | no | 75.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 21.5% | H/D | 4.9% | H/A | 1.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 11.8% | D/D | 14.8% | D/A | 11.5% |
| A/H | 2.3% | A/D | 5.7% | A/A | 25.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 79.2% | under_7.5 | 20.8% | over_8.5 | 68.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 31.1% | over_9.5 | 57.4% | under_9.5 | 42.6% |
| over_10.5 | 45.7% | under_10.5 | 54.4% | over_11.5 | 34.7% |
| under_11.5 | 65.3% | over_12.5 | 25.2% | under_12.5 | 74.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 76.2% | under_3.5 | 23.8% | over_4.5 | 61.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.6% | over_5.5 | 46.2% | under_5.5 | 53.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 67.9% | under_3.5 | 32.1% | over_4.5 | 51.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.6% | over_5.5 | 35.9% | under_5.5 | 64.1% |
most
| home | 51.6% | draw | 10.5% | away | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.4% | away_+3.5 | 77.6% | home_-1.5 | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.1% | home_-0.5 | 51.6% | away_+0.5 | 48.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.1% | away_-0.5 | 37.9% | home_+1.5 | 71.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 28.2% | home_+3.5 | 86.6% | away_-3.5 | 13.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 64.0% | under_22.5 | 36.0% | over_24.5 | 51.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 48.5% | over_26.5 | 39.4% | under_26.5 | 60.7% |
| over_28.5 | 28.4% | under_28.5 | 71.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 70.0% | under_10.5 | 30.0% | over_12.5 | 53.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 46.9% | over_14.5 | 36.7% | under_14.5 | 63.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 59.4% | under_10.5 | 40.6% | over_12.5 | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 58.6% | over_14.5 | 26.0% | under_14.5 | 74.0% |
most
| home | 55.1% | draw | 6.2% | away | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 30.6% | away_+4.5 | 69.4% | home_-2.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 57.6% | home_-0.5 | 55.1% | away_+0.5 | 45.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.2% | away_-0.5 | 38.8% | home_+2.5 | 72.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 27.3% | home_+4.5 | 82.1% | away_-4.5 | 17.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 69.0% | under_6.5 | 31.0% | over_7.5 | 56.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 43.6% | over_8.5 | 43.7% | under_8.5 | 56.3% |
| over_9.5 | 32.1% | under_9.5 | 67.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 61.0% | under_3.5 | 39.0% | over_4.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.5% | over_5.5 | 28.4% | under_5.5 | 71.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 52.5% | under_3.5 | 47.5% | over_4.5 | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 65.3% | over_5.5 | 20.9% | under_5.5 | 79.1% |
most
| home | 49.7% | draw | 12.9% | away | 37.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.5% | away_+2.5 | 74.5% | home_-0.5 | 49.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.3% | home_+0.5 | 62.6% | away_-0.5 | 37.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 83.5% | away_-2.5 | 16.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 70.6% | under_2.5 | 29.4% | over_3.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 50.5% | over_4.5 | 30.3% | under_4.5 | 69.7% |
| over_5.5 | 16.3% | under_5.5 | 83.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 52.4% | under_1.5 | 47.6% | over_2.5 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 74.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 56.4% | under_1.5 | 43.6% | over_2.5 | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.6% |
most
| home | 36.4% | draw | 21.7% | away | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 18.6% | away_+1.5 | 81.4% | home_-0.5 | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.6% | home_+0.5 | 58.1% | away_-0.5 | 41.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 77.2% | away_-1.5 | 22.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 58.2% | under_20.5 | 41.8% | over_22.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 57.6% | over_24.5 | 28.3% | under_24.5 | 71.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 64.0% | under_9.5 | 36.0% | over_11.5 | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 58.2% | over_13.5 | 23.1% | under_13.5 | 76.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 61.9% | under_9.5 | 38.1% | over_11.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 60.4% | over_13.5 | 21.3% | under_13.5 | 78.6% |
most
| home | 47.6% | draw | 8.0% | away | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.4% | away_+3.5 | 74.6% | home_-0.5 | 47.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.4% | home_+2.5 | 70.6% | away_-2.5 | 29.4% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 14.2% | no | 85.8% |
|---|
home
| yes | 11.1% | no | 88.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 3.6% | no | 96.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Burnley predictions · Middlesbrough predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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