West Brom vs Charlton: model prediction
ChampionshipWest Brom or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time7 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was West Brom at 44.8%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 60.4% and it landed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 66.9% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 80.5% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 54.5% and it missed. We called Yes at 58.4% and it missed. We called Yes at 73.8% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 56.3% and it landed (11 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 54.6% and it landed (2 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 51.7% and it missed (19 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 53.8% and it missed (4 shots on target). We called No at 91.7% and it landed.
| Match data | West Brom | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 0 | 0 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 1 | 1 |
| Shots | 15 | 4 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 1 |
| Corners | 8 | 3 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 4 | 16 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"West Brom or Charlton? We publish probabilities, not certainties." West Brom versus Charlton on 2 September 2026 tilts towards West Brom in our numbers (45%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing West Brom at 55%. Caution noted. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 40% with both teams to score at 46%. Form guide over the last six: West Brom W3 D1 L2, Charlton W4 D0 L2. Head to head, the last 4 meetings gave 0 wins for West Brom, 3 draws and 1 for Charlton, averaging 2.8 goals a game. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
44.8%-10.5%
29.2%+3.2%
26.0%+7.3%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: West Brom 0 · 3 draws · Charlton 1 · 2.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 3.03 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 78%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.8% | Over 7.5 | 53.9% | Over 8.5 | 41.2% | Over 9.5 | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: West Brom | 61.7% | Most: Charlton | 26.2% | ||||
| West Brom Over 4.2 | 49.9% | Charlton Over 4.2 | 24.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 67.1% | Over 3.5 | 45.4% | Over 4.5 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: West Brom | 27.6% | Most: Charlton | 50.8% | ||
| West Brom Over 1.8 | 42.3% | Charlton Over 1.8 | 59.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| West Brom clean sheet | 38.8% |
|---|---|
| Charlton clean sheet | 26.6% |
| West Brom win to nil | 27.8% |
| Charlton win to nil | 15.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 44.8% | draw | 29.2% | away | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 74.0% | 12 | 70.8% | X2 | 55.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 63.3% | away | 36.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 45.5% | no | 54.5% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 38.9% | away | 26.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 27.9% | away | 15.6% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.6% | home_by_2 | 13.5% | home_by_3plus | 7.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 16.6% | away_by_2 | 6.9% | away_by_3plus | 2.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 11.0% | 0-1 | 9.1% | 0-2 | 4.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.5% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 13.0% | 1-1 | 13.6% | 1-2 | 6.1% |
| 1-3 | 1.9% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 2-1 | 8.6% | 2-2 | 4.0% |
| 2-3 | 1.3% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.0% | 3-1 | 3.8% | 3-2 | 1.8% |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.3% | 4-1 | 1.3% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.0% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 89.0% | under_0.5 | 11.0% | over_1.5 | 66.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 33.1% | over_2.5 | 39.6% | under_2.5 | 60.4% |
| over_3.5 | 19.5% | under_3.5 | 80.5% | over_4.5 | 8.1% |
| under_4.5 | 91.9% | over_5.5 | 2.9% | under_5.5 | 97.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.2% | even | 51.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 73.4% | under_0.5 | 26.6% | over_1.5 | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.7% | over_2.5 | 15.0% | under_2.5 | 85.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 61.1% | under_0.5 | 38.9% | over_1.5 | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 75.6% | over_2.5 | 7.0% | under_2.5 | 93.0% |
most
| home | 44.8% | draw | 29.2% | away | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 7.7% | away_+2.5 | 92.3% | home_-1.5 | 21.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 78.8% | home_-0.5 | 44.8% | away_+0.5 | 55.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.0% | away_-0.5 | 26.0% | home_+1.5 | 90.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.4% | home_+2.5 | 97.5% | away_-2.5 | 2.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 11.0% | exact_1 | 22.2% | exact_2 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.1% | exact_4 | 11.4% | exact_5 | 5.2% |
| exact_6 | 2.0% | exact_7plus | 0.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.0% | draw | 49.3% | away | 16.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 58.4% | under_0.5 | 41.6% | over_1.5 | 21.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 78.1% | over_2.5 | 5.9% | under_2.5 | 94.1% |
btts
| yes | 11.6% | no | 88.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 41.6% | exact_1 | 36.5% | exact_2 | 16.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 4.7% | exact_4plus | 1.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.4% | draw | 39.3% | away | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.8% | under_0.5 | 26.2% | over_1.5 | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.3% | over_2.5 | 15.2% | under_2.5 | 84.8% |
btts
| yes | 23.8% | no | 76.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 26.0% | H/D | 5.9% | H/A | 2.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.5% | D/D | 19.4% | D/A | 14.4% |
| A/H | 1.3% | A/D | 3.4% | A/A | 12.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 78.4% | under_7.5 | 21.6% | over_8.5 | 67.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 32.1% | over_9.5 | 56.3% | under_9.5 | 43.7% |
| over_10.5 | 44.5% | under_10.5 | 55.5% | over_11.5 | 33.6% |
| under_11.5 | 66.4% | over_12.5 | 24.2% | under_12.5 | 75.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 81.9% | under_3.5 | 18.1% | over_4.5 | 69.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 30.9% | over_5.5 | 54.7% | under_5.5 | 45.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.5% | under_3.5 | 42.5% | over_4.5 | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.1% | over_5.5 | 25.4% | under_5.5 | 74.6% |
most
| home | 64.5% | draw | 9.6% | away | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 33.1% | away_+3.5 | 66.9% | home_-1.5 | 54.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 46.0% | home_-0.5 | 64.5% | away_+0.5 | 35.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.0% | away_-0.5 | 26.0% | home_+1.5 | 82.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 18.0% | home_+3.5 | 92.8% | away_-3.5 | 7.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 64.2% | under_22.5 | 35.8% | over_24.5 | 51.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 48.3% | over_26.5 | 39.3% | under_26.5 | 60.7% |
| over_28.5 | 28.1% | under_28.5 | 71.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 79.7% | under_10.5 | 20.3% | over_12.5 | 65.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 34.8% | over_14.5 | 49.3% | under_14.5 | 50.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 45.4% | under_10.5 | 54.6% | over_12.5 | 27.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 72.1% | over_14.5 | 15.3% | under_14.5 | 84.7% |
most
| home | 72.7% | draw | 5.1% | away | 22.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 48.5% | away_+4.5 | 51.5% | home_-2.5 | 61.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 38.9% | home_-0.5 | 72.7% | away_+0.5 | 27.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 77.7% | away_-0.5 | 22.3% | home_+2.5 | 86.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 13.9% | home_+4.5 | 92.0% | away_-4.5 | 8.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.8% | under_6.5 | 33.2% | over_7.5 | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 46.2% | over_8.5 | 41.2% | under_8.5 | 58.8% |
| over_9.5 | 29.8% | under_9.5 | 70.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 66.8% | under_3.5 | 33.2% | over_4.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.1% | over_5.5 | 34.4% | under_5.5 | 65.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 41.2% | under_3.5 | 58.8% | over_4.5 | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 75.5% | over_5.5 | 13.1% | under_5.5 | 86.9% |
most
| home | 61.7% | draw | 12.0% | away | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 35.8% | away_+2.5 | 64.2% | home_-0.5 | 61.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 38.3% | home_+0.5 | 73.8% | away_-0.5 | 26.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 90.4% | away_-2.5 | 9.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 67.1% | under_2.5 | 32.9% | over_3.5 | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 54.6% | over_4.5 | 26.6% | under_4.5 | 73.4% |
| over_5.5 | 13.7% | under_5.5 | 86.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 42.3% | under_1.5 | 57.7% | over_2.5 | 17.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 82.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 59.7% | under_1.5 | 40.3% | over_2.5 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.3% |
most
| home | 27.6% | draw | 21.6% | away | 50.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 12.3% | away_+1.5 | 87.7% | home_-0.5 | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 72.4% | home_+0.5 | 49.2% | away_-0.5 | 50.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.5% | away_-1.5 | 29.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 58.3% | under_20.5 | 41.8% | over_22.5 | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 57.5% | over_24.5 | 28.3% | under_24.5 | 71.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 50.1% | under_9.5 | 49.9% | over_11.5 | 28.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 71.8% | over_13.5 | 13.2% | under_13.5 | 86.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 73.8% | under_9.5 | 26.2% | over_11.5 | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 46.7% | over_13.5 | 33.1% | under_13.5 | 66.9% |
most
| home | 28.9% | draw | 7.2% | away | 63.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 12.3% | away_+3.5 | 87.7% | home_-0.5 | 28.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 71.1% | home_+2.5 | 51.8% | away_-2.5 | 48.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 8.3% | no | 91.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.0% | no | 93.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 1.4% | no | 98.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: West Brom predictions · Charlton predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets