Championship
Burnley vs Middlesbrough Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 50.5% and it missed (4 in the match). We called No at 85.8% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 49.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.6% for over 2.5 to 16.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.5%. Between the two sides, Middlesbrough are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.9%, with a level count at 21.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.3% | 69.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.3% | 83.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
52.4%
25.8%
56.4%
29.5%
Card handicap
| Burnley line | Burnley | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.6% | 81.4% |
| -0.5 | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| +0.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| +1.5 | 77.2% | 22.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 28.3% | 71.7% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Burnley vs Middlesbrough. It tips Middlesbrough for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
49.5%Over 3.5 cards14.2%Any red card52.4%Burnley over 1.5 cards56.4%Middlesbrough over 1.5 cards42.4%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Burnley over 1.5 cards sits at 52.4% and Middlesbrough at 56.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.2% (Burnley 11.1%, Middlesbrough 3.6%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.5% for Burnley vs Middlesbrough.
Will there be a red card in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Before kickoff, the model rated Middlesbrough to pick up more cards at 41.9%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.