Bundesliga
Mainz vs 
Ein Frankfurt Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 63.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Mainz have averaged 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, Ein Frankfurt 1.8 and 2.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 63.2% for over 2.5 and 84.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.2 goals a game. Mainz have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Ein Frankfurt in 5 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.7% | 4.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 84.1% | 15.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| 3.5 goals | 41.1% | 59.0% |
| 4.5 goals | 23.0% | 77.0% |
| 5.5 goals | 11.2% | 88.8% |
Team goal lines
85.4%
57.3%
30.3%
73.7%
38.6%
15.1%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 76.5% | 23.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 17.8% | 82.2% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 83.2% | 16.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 26.4% | 73.6% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
63.4%Both Teams to Score63.2%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 63.2% for three or more goals and 84.1% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Mainz favoured at 51.7%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Mainz to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Mainz 2 · 1 draws · Ein Frankfurt 2 · 2.2 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mainz vs Ein Frankfurt?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 63.2% for Mainz vs Ein Frankfurt.
Will there be a first-half goal in Mainz vs Ein Frankfurt?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 76.5%.
How often have Mainz gone over 2.5 recently?
Mainz have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Ein Frankfurt in 5 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,496 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.