League TwoBarnet vs Fleetwood Town Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 53.2% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 89.2% and it missed (1 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 53.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 73.6% for over 2.5 to 18.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.2%. Head to head on cards, Fleetwood Town are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 55.0%, with a level count at 19.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.6% | 26.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.9% | 81.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
45.2%
19.8%
66.9%
40.4%
Card handicap
| Barnet line | Barnet | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.4% | 88.6% |
| -0.5 | 25.2% | 74.8% |
| +0.5 | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| +1.5 | 65.7% | 34.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 43.3% | 56.8% |
This season (2026/27)
1.7Barnet cards per game13.5Barnet fouls per game2.8Fleetwood Town cards per game13.2Fleetwood Town fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Barnet vs Fleetwood Town. The model leans toward Fleetwood Town for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
53.2%Over 3.5 cards10.8%Any red card45.2%Barnet over 1.5 cards66.9%Fleetwood Town over 1.5 cards58.4%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Barnet over 1.5 cards sits at 45.2% and Fleetwood Town at 66.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.8% (Barnet 4.5%, Fleetwood Town 6.6%). This season Barnet have averaged 1.7 cards a game and Fleetwood Town 2.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Barnet vs Fleetwood Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.2% for Barnet vs Fleetwood Town.
Will there be a red card in Barnet vs Fleetwood Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Barnet vs Fleetwood Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated Fleetwood Town to pick up more cards at 55.0%, with a level count at 19.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,164 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
