League TwoBarnet vs Fleetwood Town Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 52.0% and it missed (28 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 51.9% and it landed (10 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 48.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 60.7% for over 22.5 to 25.2% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.0%. Head to head on shots, Barnet are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.3%, with a level count at 6.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 35.8% | 64.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 25.2% | 74.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.2%
55.6%
39.1%
51.6%
33.5%
19.5%
Shot handicap
| Barnet line | Barnet | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| -2.5 | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| -0.5 | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| +0.5 | 68.3% | 31.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 28.6% | 71.4% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
16.2Barnet shots per game10.8Barnet shots faced per game13.7Fleetwood Town shots per game12.8Fleetwood Town shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Barnet.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
48.0%Over 24.5 shots55.6%Barnet over 12.5 shots33.5%Fleetwood Town over 12.5 shots51.9%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Barnet over 12.5 shots sits at 55.6% and Fleetwood Town at 33.5%. This season Barnet have averaged 16.2 shots a game and Fleetwood Town 13.7.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Barnet vs Fleetwood Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 48.0% for Barnet vs Fleetwood Town.
Which team will have more shots in Barnet vs Fleetwood Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated Barnet to take more shots at 62.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,771 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
