La Liga
Barcelona vs 
Vallecano Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 52.6% and it missed (37 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 64.3% and it landed (14 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 47.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 60.1% for over 22.5 to 24.6% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.4%. Between the two sides, Barcelona are the model’s pick to have more shots at 72.5%, with a level count at 5.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 24.6% | 75.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
77.5%
62.3%
46.1%
42.4%
25.3%
13.5%
Shot handicap
| Barcelona line | Barcelona | Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| -2.5 | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| -0.5 | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| +0.5 | 77.6% | 22.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 39.7% | 60.3% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Barcelona.
In-depth analysis
47.4%Over 24.5 shots62.3%Barcelona over 12.5 shots25.3%Vallecano over 12.5 shots64.3%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Barcelona over 12.5 shots sits at 62.3% and Vallecano at 25.3%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Barcelona vs Vallecano?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 47.4% for Barcelona vs Vallecano.
Which team will have more shots in Barcelona vs Vallecano?
Before kickoff, the model rated Barcelona to take more shots at 72.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.