Shots

Over 22.5	67.0%	Over 24.5	54.8%	Over 26.5	42.5%	Over 28.5	31.2%
Most: Levante	51.7%	Most: Barcelona	42.1%
Levante Over 13.2	44.6%	Barcelona Over 13.2	37.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	79.1%	Over 7.5	68.1%	Over 8.5	55.9%	Over 9.5	43.7%
Most: Levante	42.8%	Most: Barcelona	44.6%
Levante Over 4.2	47.2%	Barcelona Over 4.2	48.5%

Cards

Over 2.5	76.4%	Over 3.5	57.3%	Over 4.5	38.2%
Most: Levante	37.5%	Most: Barcelona	42.3%
Levante Over 1.8	57.9%	Barcelona Over 1.8	61.2%

Levante: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Etta Eyong	2.8	1.4	0.42	49.1%	39.0%	18.3%
Paco Cortés	2.26	0.87	0	28.3%	21.5%	0.0%
Roger Brugué	2.54	0.77	0.21	39.2%	48.8%	12.7%
Thiago Fernández	1.56	0.7	0	36.2%	26.5%	0.0%
Iván Romero	2.39	0.65	0.24	41.1%	58.0%	17.8%

Barcelona: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Gabriel Jesus	3.79	1.66	0.55	44.0%	38.1%	17.5%
Lamine Yamal	4.77	1.56	0.49	75.8%	93.0%	35.9%
Raphinha	3.74	1.42	0.72	68.6%	80.8%	44.4%
Fermín López	3.28	1.31	0.44	55.0%	59.4%	23.5%
Karim Adeyemi	2.57	1.14	0.5	46.2%	40.8%	23.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Levante clean sheet	11.9%
Barcelona clean sheet	30.3%
Levante win to nil	7.8%
Barcelona win to nil	26.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	20.0%	draw	21.3%	away	58.6%

double_chance

1X	41.4%	12	78.6%	X2	80.0%

dnb

home	25.5%	away	74.6%

btts

yes	61.2%	no	38.8%

clean_sheet

home	11.9%	away	31.0%

win_to_nil

home	7.8%	away	26.9%

winning_margin

home_by_1	12.0%	home_by_2	5.5%	home_by_3plus	2.5%
away_by_1	22.1%	away_by_2	17.8%	away_by_3plus	18.7%

correct_score

0-0	4.2%	0-1	7.4%	0-2	8.4%
0-3	5.9%	0-4	3.2%	0-5	1.4%
1-0	3.8%	1-1	9.6%	1-2	9.7%
1-3	6.9%	1-4	3.7%	1-5	1.6%
2-0	2.5%	2-1	5.4%	2-2	5.7%
2-3	4.1%	2-4	2.2%	2-5	0.9%
3-0	1.0%	3-1	2.1%	3-2	2.3%
3-3	1.6%	3-4	0.9%	3-5	0.4%
4-0	0.3%	4-1	0.7%	4-2	0.7%
4-3	0.5%	4-4	0.3%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	0.1%	5-1	0.2%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	2.3%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	200.0%	p	9.7%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	95.9%	under_0.5	4.2%	over_1.5	84.6%
under_1.5	15.4%	over_2.5	64.1%	under_2.5	35.9%
over_3.5	42.1%	under_3.5	57.9%	over_4.5	23.9%
under_4.5	76.1%	over_5.5	11.8%	under_5.5	88.2%

odd_even

odd	49.0%	even	51.0%

team_home

over_0.5	69.0%	under_0.5	31.0%	over_1.5	32.9%
under_1.5	67.1%	over_2.5	11.7%	under_2.5	88.3%

team_away

over_0.5	88.1%	under_0.5	11.9%	over_1.5	62.7%
under_1.5	37.3%	over_2.5	35.8%	under_2.5	64.2%

most

home	20.0%	draw	21.3%	away	58.6%

handicap

home_-2.5	2.5%	away_+2.5	97.5%	home_-1.5	8.0%
away_+1.5	92.0%	home_-0.5	20.0%	away_+0.5	80.0%
home_+0.5	41.4%	away_-0.5	58.6%	home_+1.5	63.5%
away_-1.5	36.5%	home_+2.5	81.3%	away_-2.5	18.7%

total_exact

exact_0	4.2%	exact_1	11.2%	exact_2	20.5%
exact_3	22.0%	exact_4	18.2%	exact_5	12.1%
exact_6	6.7%	exact_7plus	5.2%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	15.9%	draw	33.7%	away	50.4%

total

over_0.5	78.4%	under_0.5	21.6%	over_1.5	45.4%
under_1.5	54.6%	over_2.5	20.0%	under_2.5	80.0%

btts

yes	24.4%	no	75.6%

total_exact

exact_0	21.6%	exact_1	33.1%	exact_2	25.4%
exact_3	13.0%	exact_4plus	7.0%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	19.6%	draw	32.0%	away	48.4%

total

over_0.5	82.2%	under_0.5	17.8%	over_1.5	51.5%
under_1.5	48.5%	over_2.5	25.0%	under_2.5	75.0%

btts

yes	30.5%	no	69.5%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	9.2%	H/D	3.9%	H/A	2.8%
D/H	6.6%	D/D	10.8%	D/A	16.3%
A/H	1.6%	A/D	4.9%	A/A	43.9%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	74.7%	under_7.5	25.3%	over_8.5	63.4%
under_8.5	36.6%	over_9.5	51.3%	under_9.5	48.7%
over_10.5	39.5%	under_10.5	60.5%	over_11.5	29.0%
under_11.5	71.0%	over_12.5	20.2%	under_12.5	79.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	72.5%	under_3.5	27.5%	over_4.5	56.9%
under_4.5	43.1%	over_5.5	41.5%	under_5.5	58.5%

team_away

over_3.5	64.7%	under_3.5	35.3%	over_4.5	47.8%
under_4.5	52.3%	over_5.5	32.5%	under_5.5	67.5%

most

home	50.7%	draw	10.8%	away	38.5%

handicap

home_-3.5	21.2%	away_+3.5	78.8%	home_-1.5	39.9%
away_+1.5	60.1%	home_-0.5	50.7%	away_+0.5	49.3%
home_+0.5	61.5%	away_-0.5	38.5%	home_+1.5	71.4%
away_-1.5	28.6%	home_+3.5	86.6%	away_-3.5	13.4%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	67.0%	under_22.5	33.0%	over_24.5	54.8%
under_24.5	45.2%	over_26.5	42.5%	under_26.5	57.5%
over_28.5	31.2%	under_28.5	68.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	70.1%	under_10.5	29.9%	over_12.5	53.1%
under_12.5	46.9%	over_14.5	36.6%	under_14.5	63.4%

team_away

over_10.5	64.0%	under_10.5	36.0%	over_12.5	46.2%
under_12.5	53.8%	over_14.5	30.1%	under_14.5	69.9%

most

home	51.7%	draw	6.2%	away	42.1%

handicap

home_-4.5	27.9%	away_+4.5	72.1%	home_-2.5	39.3%
away_+2.5	60.7%	home_-0.5	51.7%	away_+0.5	48.3%
home_+0.5	58.0%	away_-0.5	42.1%	home_+2.5	69.7%
away_-2.5	30.3%	home_+4.5	79.7%	away_-4.5	20.3%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	79.1%	under_6.5	20.9%	over_7.5	68.1%
under_7.5	31.9%	over_8.5	55.9%	under_8.5	44.1%
over_9.5	43.7%	under_9.5	56.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	65.0%	under_3.5	35.0%	over_4.5	47.2%
under_4.5	52.8%	over_5.5	31.3%	under_5.5	68.7%

team_away

over_3.5	66.1%	under_3.5	33.9%	over_4.5	48.5%
under_4.5	51.5%	over_5.5	32.5%	under_5.5	67.5%

most

home	42.8%	draw	12.6%	away	44.6%

handicap

home_-2.5	21.0%	away_+2.5	79.0%	home_-0.5	42.8%
away_+0.5	57.2%	home_+0.5	55.4%	away_-0.5	44.6%
home_+2.5	77.7%	away_-2.5	22.3%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	76.4%	under_2.5	23.7%	over_3.5	57.3%
under_3.5	42.7%	over_4.5	38.3%	under_4.5	61.8%
over_5.5	22.8%	under_5.5	77.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	57.9%	under_1.5	42.1%	over_2.5	31.5%
under_2.5	68.6%

team_away

over_1.5	61.2%	under_1.5	38.8%	over_2.5	34.8%
under_2.5	65.2%

most

home	37.6%	draw	20.2%	away	42.3%

handicap

home_-1.5	20.5%	away_+1.5	79.5%	home_-0.5	37.6%
away_+0.5	62.5%	home_+0.5	57.8%	away_-0.5	42.3%
home_+1.5	75.8%	away_-1.5	24.2%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	65.3%	under_20.5	34.7%	over_22.5	50.9%
under_22.5	49.1%	over_24.5	36.9%	under_24.5	63.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	68.4%	under_9.5	31.6%	over_11.5	48.1%
under_11.5	51.9%	over_13.5	29.5%	under_13.5	70.5%

team_away

over_9.5	65.9%	under_9.5	34.1%	over_11.5	45.2%
under_11.5	54.8%	over_13.5	27.0%	under_13.5	73.0%

most

home	48.4%	draw	7.3%	away	44.3%

handicap

home_-3.5	27.7%	away_+3.5	72.3%	home_-0.5	48.4%
away_+0.5	51.6%	home_+2.5	69.5%	away_-2.5	30.5%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	18.0%	no	82.0%

home

yes	11.9%	no	88.1%

away

yes	7.0%	no	93.0%