La Liga
Barcelona vs 
Vallecano Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 64.1% and it missed (1 in the match). We called No at 79.1% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 64.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 81.2% for over 2.5 to 28.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.4%. Between the two sides, Vallecano are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.8%, with a level count at 18.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 81.2% | 18.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 28.9% | 71.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.5%
29.1%
71.6%
46.8%
Card handicap
| Barcelona line | Barcelona | Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| -0.5 | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| +0.5 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| +1.5 | 66.0% | 34.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 42.0% | 58.0% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Barcelona vs Vallecano. Slightly more cards are projected for Vallecano for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
64.1%Over 3.5 cards20.9%Any red card55.5%Barcelona over 1.5 cards71.6%Vallecano over 1.5 cards56.2%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Barcelona over 1.5 cards sits at 55.5% and Vallecano at 71.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.9% (Barcelona 5.8%, Vallecano 16.0%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Barcelona vs Vallecano?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 64.1% for Barcelona vs Vallecano.
Will there be a red card in Barcelona vs Vallecano?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 20.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Barcelona vs Vallecano?
Before kickoff, the model rated Vallecano to pick up more cards at 52.8%, with a level count at 18.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.