Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs 
Willem II Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 31.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 54.0% for over 2.5 to 7.1% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.0%. Head to head on cards, Willem II are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.5%, with a level count at 24.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 31.9% | 68.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 16.1% | 83.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 7.1% | 92.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
33.1%
11.8%
49.3%
23.4%
Card handicap
| AZ Alkmaar line | AZ Alkmaar | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.1% | 88.9% |
| -0.5 | 27.3% | 72.7% |
| +0.5 | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| +1.5 | 74.2% | 25.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 24.5% | 75.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0AZ Alkmaar cards per game11.0AZ Alkmaar fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II. It tips Willem II for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
31.9%Over 3.5 cards7.6%Any red card33.1%AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 cards49.3%Willem II over 1.5 cards37.6%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 cards sits at 33.1% and Willem II at 49.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.6% (AZ Alkmaar 1.7%, Willem II 6.1%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 31.9% for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II.
Will there be a red card in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
The model rates Willem II to pick up more cards at 48.5%, with a level count at 24.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,309 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.