Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs 
Willem II Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 9.5% at 2-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: AZ Alkmaar have averaged 3.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, Willem II 1.0 and 2.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 67.8% for over 2.5 and 86.7% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% |
| 3-1 | 7.8% |
| 3-0 | 7.6% |
| 1-0 | 7.1% |
| 2-2 | 4.9% |
| 4-1 | 4.8% |
Score probability grid
| AZ Alkmaar \ Willem II | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 7% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 | 9% | 10% | 5% | 2% | · | · |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals, columns = Willem II. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9.5%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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5+
In-depth analysis
59.3%Both Teams to Score67.8%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 67.8% for three or more goals and 86.7% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given AZ Alkmaar favoured at 68.3%, the scoreline often hinges on whether the favourite is made to chase.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 3 · 1 draws · Willem II 1 · 3.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
The model's most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II is 2-1 at 9.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Eredivisie, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.