Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs 
Willem II Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Home or Draw at 86.4%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, AZ Alkmaar are favoured at 68.3%, so game state could swing this market. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar by 1 | 21.6% |
| AZ Alkmaar by 2 | 19.9% |
| AZ Alkmaar by 3+ | 26.7% |
| Willem II by 1 | 8.8% |
| Willem II by 2 | 3.5% |
| Willem II by 3+ | 1.3% |
| Draw | 18.1% |
Goal handicap
| AZ Alkmaar line | AZ Alkmaar | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 26.7% | 73.3% |
| -1.5 | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| -0.5 | 68.3% | 31.7% |
| +0.5 | 86.3% | 13.7% |
This season (2026/27)
3.2AZ Alkmaar goals scored per game1.0AZ Alkmaar goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is AZ Alkmaar or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
59.3%Both Teams to Score67.8%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, AZ Alkmaar are favoured at 68.3%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 3 · 1 draws · Willem II 1 · 3.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II at 86.4%.
What is the draw no bet probability in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
With the draw taken out, the model rates AZ Alkmaar at 83.3% and Willem II at 16.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,045 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.