Serie A
Atalanta vs 
Sassuolo Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 47.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 68.5% for over 2.5 to 15.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.4%. On the card count, Sassuolo are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.5%, with a level count at 21.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 28.8% | 71.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.4% | 84.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.4%
23.6%
55.8%
29.4%
Card handicap
| Atalanta line | Atalanta | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.5% | 82.5% |
| -0.5 | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| +0.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| +1.5 | 75.9% | 24.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 38.0% | 62.0% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Atalanta vs Sassuolo. Slightly more cards are projected for Sassuolo for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
47.4%Over 3.5 cards10.8%Any red card49.4%Atalanta over 1.5 cards55.8%Sassuolo over 1.5 cards51.5%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Atalanta over 1.5 cards sits at 49.4% and Sassuolo at 55.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.8% (Atalanta 4.7%, Sassuolo 6.4%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 47.4% for Atalanta vs Sassuolo.
Will there be a red card in Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Atalanta vs Sassuolo?
Before kickoff, the model rated Sassuolo to pick up more cards at 43.5%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.