Torino vs Milan: model prediction
Serie A
Over 1.5 goals
Draw or Milan
Both teams to score
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Milan at 47.5%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 51.0% and it missed (3 goals). We called Yes at 53.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Torino or Milan? We publish probabilities, not certainties." The model leans Milan at 47% when Torino host Milan in the Serie A on 23 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Milan higher (55%) than our model does. Totals sit close to the fence: 49% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. The run in: Torino arrive W1 D3 L2, Milan W2 D1 L3. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Torino, 1 draws and 2 for Milan at 4.2 goals per match. Alieu Njie drives the home shot volume, 1.1 on target per 90. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
26.9%+7.6%
25.6%-0.3%
47.5%-7.3%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Torino 2 · 1 draws · Milan 2 · 4.2 goals/game.
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 15.87
@ 4.39
@ 13.16
@ 7.30
@ 2.25
@ 2.26
@ 3.41
@ 1.71
@ 1.43
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 63.7% | Over 7.5 | 51.9% | Over 8.5 | 40.7% | Over 9.5 | 30.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Torino | 43.1% | Most: Milan | 44.7% | ||||
| Torino Over 4.2 | 36.3% | Milan Over 4.2 | 37.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 68.7% | Over 3.5 | 47.7% | Over 4.5 | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Torino | 39.9% | Most: Milan | 38.3% | ||
| Torino Over 1.8 | 53.5% | Milan Over 1.8 | 52.2% |
Torino: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alieu Njie | 2.01 | 1.15 | 0.29 | 22.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% |
| Duván Zapata | 2.85 | 1.12 | 0.28 | 44.5% | 44.2% | 13.7% |
| Giovanni Simeone | 3.09 | 1.11 | 0.44 | 58.4% | 70.0% | 29.3% |
| Cyril Ngonge | 2.19 | 1.09 | 0.09 | 45.0% | 33.8% | 4.8% |
| Che Adams | 2.33 | 0.88 | 0.3 | 47.8% | 51.4% | 19.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Torino clean sheet | 21.9% |
|---|---|
| Milan clean sheet | 32.6% |
| Torino win to nil | 14.1% |
| Milan win to nil | 24.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 27.3% | draw | 26.8% | away | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 54.1% | 12 | 73.2% | X2 | 72.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 37.3% | away | 62.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.1% | no | 46.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 21.9% | away | 32.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 14.1% | away | 25.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 16.4% | home_by_2 | 7.6% | home_by_3plus | 3.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 22.5% | away_by_2 | 14.0% | away_by_3plus | 9.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.8% | 0-1 | 10.3% | 0-2 | 8.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 4.2% | 0-4 | 1.6% | 0-5 | 0.5% |
| 1-0 | 7.4% | 1-1 | 12.8% | 1-2 | 9.2% |
| 1-3 | 4.7% | 1-4 | 1.8% | 1-5 | 0.5% |
| 2-0 | 4.5% | 2-1 | 6.8% | 2-2 | 5.1% |
| 2-3 | 2.6% | 2-4 | 1.0% | 2-5 | 0.3% |
| 3-0 | 1.7% | 3-1 | 2.5% | 3-2 | 1.9% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.5% | 4-1 | 0.7% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.6% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.2% | under_0.5 | 7.8% | over_1.5 | 74.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 25.5% | over_2.5 | 49.0% | under_2.5 | 51.0% |
| over_3.5 | 27.2% | under_3.5 | 72.9% | over_4.5 | 12.8% |
| under_4.5 | 87.3% | over_5.5 | 5.2% | under_5.5 | 94.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 67.2% | under_0.5 | 32.8% | over_1.5 | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.3% | over_2.5 | 10.3% | under_2.5 | 89.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 78.1% | under_0.5 | 21.9% | over_1.5 | 44.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.2% | over_2.5 | 19.6% | under_2.5 | 80.4% |
most
| home | 27.3% | draw | 26.8% | away | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.3% | away_+2.5 | 96.7% | home_-1.5 | 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 89.1% | home_-0.5 | 27.3% | away_+0.5 | 72.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 54.1% | away_-0.5 | 45.9% | home_+1.5 | 76.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.4% | home_+2.5 | 90.6% | away_-2.5 | 9.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.8% | exact_1 | 17.7% | exact_2 | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.9% | exact_4 | 14.4% | exact_5 | 7.6% |
| exact_6 | 3.3% | exact_7plus | 1.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 20.7% | draw | 44.0% | away | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 66.2% | under_0.5 | 33.8% | over_1.5 | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.4% | over_2.5 | 9.7% | under_2.5 | 90.3% |
btts
| yes | 16.8% | no | 83.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 33.8% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 19.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.2% | exact_4plus | 2.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 24.2% | draw | 35.9% | away | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.2% | under_0.5 | 21.8% | over_1.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.0% | over_2.5 | 19.7% | under_2.5 | 80.3% |
btts
| yes | 27.5% | no | 72.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 13.5% | H/D | 4.7% | H/A | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 10.6% | D/D | 15.8% | D/A | 17.5% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 5.0% | A/A | 28.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 62.3% | under_7.5 | 37.8% | over_8.5 | 51.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 48.9% | over_9.5 | 40.3% | under_9.5 | 59.7% |
| over_10.5 | 30.7% | under_10.5 | 69.3% | over_11.5 | 22.6% |
| under_11.5 | 77.4% | over_12.5 | 16.1% | under_12.5 | 83.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 63.8% | under_3.5 | 36.2% | over_4.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.0% | over_5.5 | 35.7% | under_5.5 | 64.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.1% | under_3.5 | 45.9% | over_4.5 | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 61.3% | over_5.5 | 26.1% | under_5.5 | 73.9% |
most
| home | 51.6% | draw | 10.5% | away | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.0% | away_+3.5 | 77.0% | home_-1.5 | 41.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 58.9% | home_-0.5 | 51.6% | away_+0.5 | 48.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.1% | away_-0.5 | 37.9% | home_+1.5 | 71.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 28.3% | home_+3.5 | 86.3% | away_-3.5 | 13.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 58.0% | under_22.5 | 42.0% | over_24.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 54.0% | over_26.5 | 34.6% | under_26.5 | 65.4% |
| over_28.5 | 24.7% | under_28.5 | 75.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 65.9% | under_10.5 | 34.1% | over_12.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 50.5% | over_14.5 | 34.2% | under_14.5 | 65.8% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 54.2% | under_10.5 | 45.8% | over_12.5 | 37.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 62.9% | over_14.5 | 23.2% | under_14.5 | 76.8% |
most
| home | 55.6% | draw | 6.0% | away | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 31.8% | away_+4.5 | 68.2% | home_-2.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 56.6% | home_-0.5 | 55.6% | away_+0.5 | 44.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.6% | away_-0.5 | 38.4% | home_+2.5 | 72.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 27.3% | home_+4.5 | 81.9% | away_-4.5 | 18.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 63.7% | under_6.5 | 36.3% | over_7.5 | 51.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 48.1% | over_8.5 | 40.7% | under_8.5 | 59.3% |
| over_9.5 | 30.7% | under_9.5 | 69.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 52.1% | under_3.5 | 47.9% | over_4.5 | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.7% | over_5.5 | 23.8% | under_5.5 | 76.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 53.2% | under_3.5 | 46.8% | over_4.5 | 37.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 62.5% | over_5.5 | 24.8% | under_5.5 | 75.2% |
most
| home | 43.1% | draw | 12.2% | away | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 21.9% | away_+2.5 | 78.1% | home_-0.5 | 43.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 56.9% | home_+0.5 | 55.3% | away_-0.5 | 44.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 76.8% | away_-2.5 | 23.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 68.7% | under_2.5 | 31.3% | over_3.5 | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 52.3% | over_4.5 | 29.0% | under_4.5 | 71.0% |
| over_5.5 | 15.6% | under_5.5 | 84.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 53.5% | under_1.5 | 46.5% | over_2.5 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 52.3% | under_1.5 | 47.8% | over_2.5 | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 73.9% |
most
| home | 39.9% | draw | 21.8% | away | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.3% | away_+1.5 | 78.7% | home_-0.5 | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.1% | home_+0.5 | 61.7% | away_-0.5 | 38.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 79.9% | away_-1.5 | 20.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 64.6% | under_20.5 | 35.4% | over_22.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 49.3% | over_24.5 | 37.2% | under_24.5 | 62.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 73.0% | under_9.5 | 27.0% | over_11.5 | 54.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 45.6% | over_13.5 | 36.1% | under_13.5 | 63.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 58.7% | under_9.5 | 41.3% | over_11.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 61.8% | over_13.5 | 21.8% | under_13.5 | 78.2% |
most
| home | 57.9% | draw | 6.8% | away | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 36.9% | away_+3.5 | 63.1% | home_-0.5 | 57.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 42.2% | home_+2.5 | 76.8% | away_-2.5 | 23.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 4.4% | no | 95.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 1.8% | no | 98.2% |
|---|
away
| yes | 2.7% | no | 97.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Torino predictions · Milan predictions · Serie A
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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