Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
67.2% |
Over 7.5 |
55.9% |
Over 8.5 |
44.7% |
Over 9.5 |
34.5% |
| Most: Atalanta |
59.7% |
Most: Sassuolo |
29.3% |
| Atalanta Over 4.2 |
50.4% |
Sassuolo Over 4.2 |
28.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
68.5% |
Over 3.5 |
47.4% |
Over 4.5 |
28.8% |
| Most: Atalanta |
34.8% |
Most: Sassuolo |
43.5% |
| Atalanta Over 1.8 |
49.4% |
Sassuolo Over 1.8 |
55.8% |
Atalanta: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Nikola Krstovic |
5 |
1.67 |
0.51 |
63.3% |
80.1% |
26.3% |
| Gianluca Scamacca |
3.95 |
1.5 |
0.68 |
58.5% |
67.3% |
32.9% |
| Mateo Retegui |
3.84 |
1.37 |
0.92 |
64.3% |
78.3% |
49.9% |
| Daniel Maldini |
3.3 |
1.28 |
0.55 |
30.8% |
24.5% |
14.6% |
| Giacomo Raspadori |
3.21 |
1.26 |
0.34 |
57.0% |
63.3% |
20.4% |
Sassuolo: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Andrea Pinamonti |
2.52 |
1.03 |
0.31 |
56.4% |
60.2% |
22.1% |
| Domenico Berardi |
1.8 |
0.95 |
0.36 |
55.5% |
45.4% |
26.4% |
| Armand Lauriente |
2.41 |
0.88 |
0.24 |
49.5% |
55.8% |
17.0% |
| M'Bala Nzola |
2.16 |
0.79 |
0.2 |
25.0% |
18.6% |
7.0% |
| Cristian Volpato |
1.78 |
0.59 |
0.17 |
25.1% |
21.8% |
8.0% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
54.2% |
draw |
24.7% |
away |
21.1% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
78.9% |
12 |
75.3% |
X2 |
45.8% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
23.7% |
home_by_2 |
16.8% |
home_by_3plus |
13.8% |
| away_by_1 |
13.4% |
away_by_2 |
5.6% |
away_by_3plus |
2.1% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
7.0% |
0-1 |
5.9% |
0-2 |
3.2% |
| 0-3 |
1.1% |
0-4 |
0.3% |
0-5 |
0.1% |
| 1-0 |
10.6% |
1-1 |
11.7% |
1-2 |
5.6% |
| 1-3 |
1.9% |
1-4 |
0.5% |
1-5 |
0.1% |
| 2-0 |
9.7% |
2-1 |
9.8% |
2-2 |
4.9% |
| 2-3 |
1.7% |
2-4 |
0.4% |
2-5 |
0.1% |
| 3-0 |
5.7% |
3-1 |
5.7% |
3-2 |
2.9% |
| 3-3 |
1.0% |
3-4 |
0.3% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
2.5% |
4-1 |
2.5% |
4-2 |
1.3% |
| 4-3 |
0.4% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.9% |
5-1 |
0.9% |
5-2 |
0.4% |
| 5-3 |
0.2% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
1.0% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
11.7% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
93.0% |
under_0.5 |
7.0% |
over_1.5 |
76.6% |
| under_1.5 |
23.4% |
over_2.5 |
52.0% |
under_2.5 |
48.0% |
| over_3.5 |
29.9% |
under_3.5 |
70.1% |
over_4.5 |
14.7% |
| under_4.5 |
85.3% |
over_5.5 |
6.2% |
under_5.5 |
93.8% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
82.6% |
under_0.5 |
17.4% |
over_1.5 |
52.2% |
| under_1.5 |
47.8% |
over_2.5 |
25.7% |
under_2.5 |
74.3% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
63.4% |
under_0.5 |
36.6% |
over_1.5 |
26.7% |
| under_1.5 |
73.3% |
over_2.5 |
8.2% |
under_2.5 |
91.8% |
|
most
| home |
54.2% |
draw |
24.7% |
away |
21.1% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
13.8% |
away_+2.5 |
86.3% |
home_-1.5 |
30.6% |
| away_+1.5 |
69.4% |
home_-0.5 |
54.2% |
away_+0.5 |
45.8% |
| home_+0.5 |
78.9% |
away_-0.5 |
21.1% |
home_+1.5 |
92.3% |
| away_-1.5 |
7.7% |
home_+2.5 |
97.9% |
away_-2.5 |
2.1% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
7.0% |
exact_1 |
16.4% |
exact_2 |
24.6% |
| exact_3 |
22.1% |
exact_4 |
15.2% |
exact_5 |
8.4% |
| exact_6 |
3.9% |
exact_7plus |
2.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
41.5% |
draw |
39.1% |
away |
19.4% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
72.5% |
under_0.5 |
27.5% |
over_1.5 |
37.0% |
| under_1.5 |
63.0% |
over_2.5 |
14.1% |
under_2.5 |
85.9% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
27.5% |
exact_1 |
35.5% |
exact_2 |
22.9% |
| exact_3 |
9.9% |
exact_4plus |
4.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
41.2% |
draw |
38.9% |
away |
20.0% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
73.0% |
under_0.5 |
27.0% |
over_1.5 |
37.7% |
| under_1.5 |
62.4% |
over_2.5 |
14.5% |
under_2.5 |
85.5% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
35.6% |
H/D |
4.7% |
H/A |
1.2% |
| D/H |
16.1% |
D/D |
15.2% |
D/A |
7.8% |
| A/H |
2.3% |
A/D |
4.6% |
A/A |
12.5% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
64.7% |
under_7.5 |
35.3% |
over_8.5 |
53.7% |
| under_8.5 |
46.3% |
over_9.5 |
43.0% |
under_9.5 |
57.0% |
| over_10.5 |
33.2% |
under_10.5 |
66.8% |
over_11.5 |
24.8% |
| under_11.5 |
75.2% |
over_12.5 |
18.0% |
under_12.5 |
82.0% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
70.1% |
under_3.5 |
29.9% |
over_4.5 |
56.3% |
| under_4.5 |
43.7% |
over_5.5 |
43.0% |
under_5.5 |
57.0% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
49.5% |
under_3.5 |
50.5% |
over_4.5 |
34.1% |
| under_4.5 |
65.9% |
over_5.5 |
22.1% |
under_5.5 |
77.9% |
|
most
| home |
59.7% |
draw |
9.8% |
away |
30.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
30.0% |
away_+3.5 |
70.0% |
home_-1.5 |
49.4% |
| away_+1.5 |
50.6% |
home_-0.5 |
59.7% |
away_+0.5 |
40.3% |
| home_+0.5 |
69.4% |
away_-0.5 |
30.6% |
home_+1.5 |
78.0% |
| away_-1.5 |
22.0% |
home_+3.5 |
90.1% |
away_-3.5 |
9.9% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
61.9% |
under_22.5 |
38.1% |
over_24.5 |
50.0% |
| under_24.5 |
50.0% |
over_26.5 |
38.3% |
under_26.5 |
61.7% |
| over_28.5 |
27.8% |
under_28.5 |
72.2% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
75.4% |
under_10.5 |
24.6% |
over_12.5 |
60.7% |
| under_12.5 |
39.3% |
over_14.5 |
45.3% |
under_14.5 |
54.7% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
47.4% |
under_10.5 |
52.6% |
over_12.5 |
30.7% |
| under_12.5 |
69.3% |
over_14.5 |
18.0% |
under_14.5 |
82.0% |
|
most
| home |
67.9% |
draw |
5.3% |
away |
26.9% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
44.2% |
away_+4.5 |
55.8% |
home_-2.5 |
56.3% |
| away_+2.5 |
43.7% |
home_-0.5 |
67.9% |
away_+0.5 |
32.2% |
| home_+0.5 |
73.1% |
away_-0.5 |
26.9% |
home_+2.5 |
82.2% |
| away_-2.5 |
17.8% |
home_+4.5 |
89.0% |
away_-4.5 |
11.0% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
67.2% |
under_6.5 |
32.8% |
over_7.5 |
55.9% |
| under_7.5 |
44.1% |
over_8.5 |
44.7% |
under_8.5 |
55.3% |
| over_9.5 |
34.5% |
under_9.5 |
65.5% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
65.3% |
under_3.5 |
34.7% |
over_4.5 |
50.4% |
| under_4.5 |
49.6% |
over_5.5 |
36.8% |
under_5.5 |
63.2% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
43.6% |
under_3.5 |
56.4% |
over_4.5 |
28.3% |
| under_4.5 |
71.7% |
over_5.5 |
17.2% |
under_5.5 |
82.8% |
|
most
| home |
59.7% |
draw |
11.0% |
away |
29.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
36.7% |
away_+2.5 |
63.3% |
home_-0.5 |
59.7% |
| away_+0.5 |
40.3% |
home_+0.5 |
70.7% |
away_-0.5 |
29.3% |
| home_+2.5 |
87.3% |
away_-2.5 |
12.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
68.5% |
under_2.5 |
31.5% |
over_3.5 |
47.4% |
| under_3.5 |
52.6% |
over_4.5 |
28.8% |
under_4.5 |
71.2% |
| over_5.5 |
15.4% |
under_5.5 |
84.6% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
49.4% |
under_1.5 |
50.6% |
over_2.5 |
23.6% |
| under_2.5 |
76.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
55.8% |
under_1.5 |
44.2% |
over_2.5 |
29.4% |
| under_2.5 |
70.6% |
most
| home |
34.8% |
draw |
21.7% |
away |
43.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
17.5% |
away_+1.5 |
82.5% |
home_-0.5 |
34.8% |
| away_+0.5 |
65.2% |
home_+0.5 |
56.5% |
away_-0.5 |
43.5% |
| home_+1.5 |
75.9% |
away_-1.5 |
24.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
65.4% |
under_20.5 |
34.6% |
over_22.5 |
51.5% |
| under_22.5 |
48.5% |
over_24.5 |
38.0% |
under_24.5 |
62.0% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
70.3% |
under_9.5 |
29.7% |
over_11.5 |
51.1% |
| under_11.5 |
48.9% |
over_13.5 |
33.0% |
under_13.5 |
67.0% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
63.2% |
under_9.5 |
36.8% |
over_11.5 |
43.0% |
| under_11.5 |
57.0% |
over_13.5 |
25.7% |
under_13.5 |
74.3% |
|
most
| home |
52.2% |
draw |
7.0% |
away |
40.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
31.7% |
away_+3.5 |
68.3% |
home_-0.5 |
52.2% |
| away_+0.5 |
47.8% |
home_+2.5 |
72.1% |
away_-2.5 |
27.9% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Serie A
Atalanta
Sassuolo