Serie A
Atalanta vs 
Bologna Correct Score
Result
Final score 1-0. The model gave that exact scoreline 11.0%.
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 13.0% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Atalanta have averaged 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, Bologna 1.4 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 46.7% for over 2.5 and 72.7% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.0 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.6% |
| 0-0 | 8.5% |
| 0-1 | 7.8% |
| 1-2 | 6.6% |
| 2-2 | 4.9% |
Score probability grid
| Atalanta \ Bologna | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 8% | 5% | 2% | · | · |
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | · | · |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Atalanta goals, columns = Bologna. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.0%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
51.2%Both Teams to Score46.7%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 46.7% for three or more goals and 72.7% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Atalanta favoured at 47.5%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Atalanta 2 · 1 draws · Bologna 2 · 2.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta vs Bologna finished 1-0. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 13.0%; it gave the actual 1-0 a 11.0% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Serie A, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.