Serie A
Atalanta vs 
Bologna Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 55.9% and it landed (1 in the match). We called No at 87.8% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 44.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 65.6% for over 2.5 to 13.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.2%. On the card count, Bologna are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.0%, with a level count at 22.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 65.6% | 34.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 44.2% | 55.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 26.0% | 74.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 13.5% | 86.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.5%
23.8%
51.2%
25.3%
Card handicap
| Atalanta line | Atalanta | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.3% | 80.7% |
| -0.5 | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| +0.5 | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| +1.5 | 79.0% | 21.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 76.2% | 23.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 50.8% | 49.2% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Atalanta vs Bologna. Slightly more cards are projected for Bologna for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
44.2%Over 3.5 cards12.2%Any red card49.5%Atalanta over 1.5 cards51.2%Bologna over 1.5 cards64.1%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Atalanta over 1.5 cards sits at 49.5% and Bologna at 51.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.2% (Atalanta 5.0%, Bologna 7.6%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 44.2% for Atalanta vs Bologna.
Will there be a red card in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bologna to pick up more cards at 40.0%, with a level count at 22.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.