Serie A
Napoli vs 
Bologna Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 13.3% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Napoli have averaged 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, Bologna 1.2 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 42.8% for over 2.5 and 69.5% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.1% |
| 0-0 | 9.9% |
| 2-0 | 8.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 0-1 | 8.6% |
| 1-2 | 6.3% |
| 0-2 | 4.6% |
Score probability grid
| Napoli \ Bologna | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 9% | 5% | 2% | · | · |
| 1 | 12% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Napoli goals, columns = Bologna. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.3%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
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4
5+
In-depth analysis
48.0%Both Teams to Score42.8%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 42.8% for three or more goals and 69.5% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Napoli favoured at 45.7%, a competitive game tends to open up.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Napoli 1 · 1 draws · Bologna 3 · 2.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Napoli vs Bologna?
The model's most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Bologna is 1-1 at 13.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Serie A, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.