Super League Greece
Asteras Tripolis vs 
AEK Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 37.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 48.7% for over 22.5 to 19.0% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.7%. On the shot count, Asteras Tripolis are the model’s pick to have more shots at 56.0%, with a level count at 5.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 27.3% | 72.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 19.0% | 81.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
59.4%
43.5%
29.5%
46.8%
31.0%
19.0%
Shot handicap
| Asteras Tripolis line | Asteras Tripolis | AEK |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| -2.5 | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| -0.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| +0.5 | 61.9% | 38.1% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 51.7% | 48.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 29.7% | 70.3% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Asteras Tripolis.
In-depth analysis
37.4%Over 24.5 shots43.5%Asteras Tripolis over 12.5 shots31.0%AEK over 12.5 shots51.7%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Asteras Tripolis over 12.5 shots sits at 43.5% and AEK at 31.0%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Asteras Tripolis vs AEK?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 37.4% for Asteras Tripolis vs AEK.
Which team will have more shots in Asteras Tripolis vs AEK?
The model rates Asteras Tripolis to take more shots at 56.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,984 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Shots actually happened 39.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.