Kalamata vs Volos NFC prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

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Kalamata vs Volos NFC: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Super League Greece
Kalamata

LLD

Sun, 13 Sep 202616:00UK
Volos NFC

LLLDD

Model’s top convictions

72%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Kalamata or draw

58%

Draw or Volos NFC

Fairly pricedConservative EV -0.003 <= 0.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
KalamataWin probability
42.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals71.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
Kalamata or draw70.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.42
Draw or Volos NFC57.7%Good chancePays @ 1.73

Model read

▾

"Kalamata or Volos NFC? We publish probabilities, not certainties." The model leans Kalamata at 42% when Kalamata host Volos NFC in the Super League Greece on 13 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Notably, the model is warmer on Kalamata than the market (37%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. No strong lean on goals (46% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. As a promoted side, Kalamata carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Form guide over the last six: Kalamata W0 D1 L2, Volos NFC W0 D2 L4. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.003 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 8.5 corners47.5%@ 2.11
Over 2.5 goals45.5%@ 2.20
Over 9.5 corners37.2%@ 2.69
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals54.5%@ 1.83
Both teams to score50.9%@ 1.96
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.3%@ 7.51
1-0 correct score10.7%@ 9.31
0-0 correct score8.9%@ 11.26

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Kalamata

42.4%+5.1%

Draw

28.0%-1.8%

Volos NFC

29.7%-3.2%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.003 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.545.5%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.9%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.547.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.537.2%

Toss-up

Over 10.528.1%

Low chance

Over 11.520.5%

Low chance

Most cornersKalamata53.7%Volos NFC35.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.551.1%

Good chance

Over 24.539.7%

Toss-up

Over 26.529.4%

Low chance

Over 28.520.6%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Kalamata10.0 taken16.3 faced
Volos NFC10.7 taken14.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.8%2.545.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.571.8%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.003 <= 0.

Form & head-to-head

KalamataLLD
Volos NFCLLLDD

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

KalamataVolos NFC
League position#11 of 14#9 of 14
Record W-D-L0-1-20-2-1
Current streakD1D2
Record, home vs away0-0-10-0-1
Red cards this season20

League averages this season: 2.76 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 43% · BTTS in 48%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Kalamata win2.502.36
Draw3.103.57
Volos NFC win2.823.37
Over 2.5 goals2.352.20
Under 2.5 goals1.571.83

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Kalamata win2.36
Draw3.57
Volos NFC win3.37
Both teams to score1.96

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.39
Over 2.5 goals2.20
Over 3.5 goals4.14
Kalamata most2.36
Volos NFC most3.37

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.62
Over 8.5 corners2.04
Over 9.5 corners2.72
Over 10.5 corners3.82
Kalamata most1.86
Volos NFC most2.84

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.11
Over 3.5 cards1.27
Over 4.5 cards1.60
Over 5.5 cards2.21
Kalamata most3.40
Volos NFC most1.86

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.53
Over 7.5 SoT1.87
Over 8.5 SoT2.39
Over 9.5 SoT3.19
Kalamata most1.90
Volos NFC most2.84

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.96
Over 24.5 shots2.52
Over 26.5 shots3.41
Over 28.5 shots4.85
Kalamata most1.66
Volos NFC most2.94

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.06
Over 22.5 fouls1.12
Over 24.5 fouls1.22
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 51.1% Over 24.5 39.7% Over 26.5 29.4% Over 28.5 20.6%
Most: Kalamata 60.3% Most: Volos NFC 34.1%
Kalamata Over 13.2 40.7% Volos NFC Over 13.2 23.2%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 65.4% Over 7.5 53.4% Over 8.5 41.8% Over 9.5 31.4%
Most: Kalamata 52.6% Most: Volos NFC 35.3%
Kalamata Over 4.2 43.8% Volos NFC Over 4.2 31.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 90.4% Over 3.5 78.5% Over 4.5 62.5%
Most: Kalamata 29.4% Most: Volos NFC 53.7%
Kalamata Over 1.8 67.6% Volos NFC Over 1.8 81.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Kalamata clean sheet 32.7%
Volos NFC clean sheet 25.1%
Kalamata win to nil 23.8%
Volos NFC win to nil 16.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 42.4% draw 28.0% away 29.7%
double_chance
1X 70.3% 12 72.0% X2 57.6%
dnb
home 58.8% away 41.2%
btts
yes 50.9% no 49.1%
clean_sheet
home 32.8% away 25.1%
win_to_nil
home 23.9% away 16.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.1% home_by_2 12.8% home_by_3plus 7.5%
away_by_1 17.7% away_by_2 8.3% away_by_3plus 3.7%
correct_score
0-0 8.9% 0-1 8.6% 0-2 5.1%
0-3 1.9% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.7% 1-1 13.3% 1-2 7.1%
1-3 2.6% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.9% 2-1 8.8% 2-2 4.9%
2-3 1.8% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.6% 3-1 4.0% 3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.1% under_0.5 8.9% over_1.5 71.8%
under_1.5 28.2% over_2.5 45.5% under_2.5 54.5%
over_3.5 24.2% under_3.5 75.8% over_4.5 10.9%
under_4.5 89.1% over_5.5 4.2% under_5.5 95.8%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 74.9% under_0.5 25.1% over_1.5 40.2%
under_1.5 59.8% over_2.5 16.2% under_2.5 83.8%
team_away
over_0.5 67.2% under_0.5 32.8% over_1.5 30.6%
under_1.5 69.4% over_2.5 10.3% under_2.5 89.8%
most
home 42.4% draw 28.0% away 29.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.5% away_+2.5 92.5% home_-1.5 20.3%
away_+1.5 79.7% home_-0.5 42.4% away_+0.5 57.6%
home_+0.5 70.3% away_-0.5 29.7% home_+1.5 88.0%
away_-1.5 12.0% home_+2.5 96.3% away_-2.5 3.7%
total_exact
exact_0 8.9% exact_1 19.3% exact_2 26.3%
exact_3 21.3% exact_4 13.3% exact_5 6.7%
exact_6 2.8% exact_7plus 1.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.0% draw 40.2% away 20.8%
total
over_0.5 71.4% under_0.5 28.6% over_1.5 35.6%
under_1.5 64.4% over_2.5 13.2% under_2.5 86.8%
btts
yes 20.5% no 79.5%
total_exact
exact_0 28.6% exact_1 35.8% exact_2 22.4%
exact_3 9.3% exact_4plus 3.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.3% draw 36.5% away 23.1%
total
over_0.5 77.1% under_0.5 23.0% over_1.5 43.3%
under_1.5 56.7% over_2.5 18.4% under_2.5 81.6%
btts
yes 26.1% no 73.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 32.3% H/D 5.1% H/A 1.6%
D/H 16.2% D/D 14.7% D/A 9.3%
A/H 2.5% A/D 4.7% A/A 13.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 61.8% under_7.5 38.3% over_8.5 48.9%
under_8.5 51.1% over_9.5 36.7% under_9.5 63.3%
over_10.5 26.2% under_10.5 73.9% over_11.5 17.7%
under_11.5 82.3% over_12.5 11.4% under_12.5 88.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.7% under_3.5 34.3% over_4.5 49.6%
under_4.5 50.4% over_5.5 34.8% under_5.5 65.2%
team_away
over_3.5 52.0% under_3.5 48.0% over_4.5 35.1%
under_4.5 64.9% over_5.5 21.9% under_5.5 78.1%
most
home 53.8% draw 11.0% away 35.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.9% away_+3.5 77.1% home_-1.5 42.6%
away_+1.5 57.4% home_-0.5 53.8% away_+0.5 46.2%
home_+0.5 64.8% away_-0.5 35.2% home_+1.5 74.7%
away_-1.5 25.3% home_+3.5 89.0% away_-3.5 11.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 51.1% under_22.5 48.9% over_24.5 39.7%
under_24.5 60.3% over_26.5 29.4% under_26.5 70.6%
over_28.5 20.6% under_28.5 79.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 63.7% under_10.5 36.3% over_12.5 48.1%
under_12.5 51.9% over_14.5 33.8% under_14.5 66.2%
team_away
over_10.5 45.2% under_10.5 54.8% over_12.5 29.6%
under_12.5 70.4% over_14.5 17.8% under_14.5 82.2%
most
home 60.3% draw 5.7% away 34.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.7% away_+4.5 63.3% home_-2.5 48.4%
away_+2.5 51.6% home_-0.5 60.3% away_+0.5 39.7%
home_+0.5 66.0% away_-0.5 34.1% home_+2.5 76.2%
away_-2.5 23.8% home_+4.5 84.4% away_-4.5 15.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 65.4% under_6.5 34.6% over_7.5 53.4%
under_7.5 46.6% over_8.5 41.8% under_8.5 58.2%
over_9.5 31.4% under_9.5 68.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 59.9% under_3.5 40.2% over_4.5 43.8%
under_4.5 56.2% over_5.5 30.1% under_5.5 69.9%
team_away
over_3.5 47.5% under_3.5 52.5% over_4.5 31.4%
under_4.5 68.6% over_5.5 19.3% under_5.5 80.7%
most
home 52.7% draw 12.1% away 35.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.3% away_+2.5 70.7% home_-0.5 52.7%
away_+0.5 47.3% home_+0.5 64.7% away_-0.5 35.3%
home_+2.5 84.0% away_-2.5 16.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 90.5% under_2.5 9.6% over_3.5 78.5%
under_3.5 21.5% over_4.5 62.5% under_4.5 37.5%
over_5.5 45.2% under_5.5 54.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 67.6% under_1.5 32.5% over_2.5 41.1%
under_2.5 58.9%
team_away
over_1.5 81.0% under_1.5 19.0% over_2.5 59.0%
under_2.5 41.0%
most
home 29.5% draw 16.9% away 53.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.2% away_+1.5 83.8% home_-0.5 29.5%
away_+0.5 70.6% home_+0.5 46.3% away_-0.5 53.7%
home_+1.5 63.7% away_-1.5 36.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 94.5% under_20.5 5.5% over_22.5 89.4%
under_22.5 10.6% over_24.5 81.7% under_24.5 18.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 87.6% under_9.5 12.4% over_11.5 74.2%
under_11.5 25.8% over_13.5 57.0% under_13.5 43.0%
team_away
over_9.5 92.3% under_9.5 7.8% over_11.5 82.2%
under_11.5 17.8% over_13.5 67.7% under_13.5 32.3%
most
home 39.0% draw 6.2% away 54.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.4% away_+3.5 77.6% home_-0.5 39.0%
away_+0.5 61.0% home_+2.5 57.9% away_-2.5 42.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 28.7% no 71.3%
home
yes 23.3% no 76.7%
away
yes 7.0% no 93.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Kalamata predictions · Volos NFC predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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