Süper Lig
Amedspor vs 
Trabzonspor Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 60.2% and it landed (8 in the match). We called No at 85.7% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 60.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 78.8% for over 2.5 to 24.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 40.7%. Between the two sides, Amedspor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 20.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 78.8% | 21.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 24.5% | 75.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
63.8%
37.0%
59.8%
32.7%
Card handicap
| Amedspor line | Amedspor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24.7% | 75.3% |
| -0.5 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| +0.5 | 63.1% | 37.0% |
| +1.5 | 79.9% | 20.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 84.2% | 15.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 59.1% | 40.9% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Amedspor vs Trabzonspor. Slightly more cards are projected for Amedspor for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
60.2%Over 3.5 cards14.4%Any red card63.8%Amedspor over 1.5 cards59.8%Trabzonspor over 1.5 cards72.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Amedspor over 1.5 cards sits at 63.8% and Trabzonspor at 59.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.4% (Amedspor 6.9%, Trabzonspor 8.0%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Amedspor vs Trabzonspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 60.2% for Amedspor vs Trabzonspor.
Will there be a red card in Amedspor vs Trabzonspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Amedspor vs Trabzonspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated Amedspor to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 20.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.